In which we amend, update, augment and/or elaborate on recent Stumper items.
II. Re: The McCain Veepwatch, Vols. 6 and 7: Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman (Aug. 14, 2008)
Yesterday,
we analyzed whether McCain would (or could) pick a pro-choice pol as
his running mate--a response to McCain reversing his earlier position
(that such a partnership would be "difficult") in an interview
Wednesday with the Weekly Standard. "I don't
think that that would necessarily
rule Tom Ridge out," he said. Like other observers, we concluded that this shift represented a trial balloon of sorts--a way "test the waters" and "see
how such a move would be received by the base voters who have long been
skeptical about his conservative bona fides." Well, the balloon may have burst. As Politico's Jonathan Martin reports,
Top
social conservative leaders in key battleground states are urging
John McCain not to pick a running mate who supports abortion rights,
warning of dire consequences from a Republican base already unenthused
about their nominee... For those who have been anxiously awaiting
McCain's pick as a signal
of his ideological intentions, there was deep concern that their worst
fears about the Arizona senator may be realized. "It absolutely floored
me," said Phil Burress, head of the Ohio-based Citizens for Community
Values. ‘It would doom him in Ohio." "That choice
will end his bid for the presidency and spell defeat for other
Republican candidates," Burress wrote in the message... Now, Burress
said, ‘he's not even sure
[Christian conservatives] would vote for him let alone work for him if
he picked a pro-abortion running mate."
[Meanwhile,] James Muffett,
head of Michigan's Citizens for Traditional Values, met with McCain
along with a handful of other Michigan-based social conservatives
Wednesday night. Muffett said McCain didn't offer any promises on the
issue, but rather reiterated his anti-abortion record and assured them
that he was aware of how critical the base was to the electoral success
of Republican presidents dating back to Ronald Reagan. ... "If he does
that, it makes our job 100 times harder. It would dampen enthusiasm at
a time when evangelicals are looking for ways to gin up enthusiasm." McCain, Muffett said, got that message in their meeting. "Some people
in the movement say it would be the kiss of death. He heard that in the
room last night."
There's
a chance that the whole contretemps is an elaborate head-fake--a way to
signal to moderates that McCain is still a "maverick" without, in the
end, having to walk the walk. Still, I suspect that McCain really wants
Ridge on his team, and may even believe that the centrist strength of a
McCain-Ridge
ticket would more than offset any losses
on the right. The risk now for McCain is that his trial balloon trick
will backfire. At this point, if he does pick the Pennsylvanian, he'll
be doing so in
direct defiance of the religious right. You sought our opinion, and we were very clear, they could say. Then you went ahead and did what you wanted anyway. What
could've been a quiet difference of opinion would now look like a brazen brush-off,
making reconciliation all the more difficult (and unlikely). On the other hand, if
McCain doesn't select Ridge, it'll seem as if he (yet again?) bowed to the far right
instead of blazing his own, independent path--further emphasizing for
moderates how far he's fallen since 2000. Developing, as
they say...
III. Re: "Running Mate Identities Revealed... in the Convention Schedules?" (Aug. 13, 2008)
On
Wednesday, we indulged in a round of rank speculation about what the
Democratic National Convention's schedule of speakers reveals about
Obama's choice of running mate. Among the rumors: with the veep set to
speak Wednesday, Hillary Clinton's Tuesday time slot indicates that
she's not the pick (probably true); that Mark Warner's selection as
Tuesday's keynote speakers means that fellow Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine
won't get the gig either (maybe not true); and that Wednesday's
national-security theme rules out neophytes like Kathleen Sebelius, who
plans to speak Tuesday, and Kaine (almost definitely not true). With
all the hype swirling around, though, it's worth noting, as the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder did yesterday, that "the
convention schedulers and Obama's VP team are entirely separate and
segregated"--meaning that it's possible to read too much into this
stuff. Still, it's interesting that both Joe Biden and Evan Bayh--two
of Obama's rumored "Final Four," along with Sebelius and Kaine--are now
speaking on Wednesday (i.e., national security / veep night). Also
getting our attention: reports (again, via Ambinder)
that Obama is planning an event for next Thursday, on the eve of the
convention, in Richmond, Va. Which just so happens to be the hometown
of Tim Kaine. Who just so happens to be the only shortlister yet to
receive a speaking slot at the convention. Anyone else feeling dizzy?
