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Posted Thursday, August 21, 2008 7:54 AM

The Filter: August 21, 2008

Andrew Romano

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

IT'S HIS PARTY
(Dana Goldstein and Ezra Klein, American Prospect)

The Obama campaign has announced plans for training camps that will turn out thousands of new organizers dedicated to electing Democrats, and has signaled that it will spend millions in blood-red states where Democrats haven't seriously invested in building party infrastructure for decades. The campaign has constructed a fundraising machine based around small-donors that promises to end the age-old competition for dollars between different wings of the Democratic establishment, enabling the creation of a unified electoral strategy. It has argued that "real change" requires the sort of legislative successes that only a strong congressional party can produce. In short, the candidate running on his exhaustion with traditional party politics has directed his campaign to build a new kind of Democratic Party--one that may put to shame anything that came before it. 

MCCAIN CLOSES GAP ON OBAMA IN POLL AS CONVENTION LOOMS
(Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal)

Sen. John McCain has all but closed the gap with Sen. Barack Obama, underscoring how international crises -- and some well-placed negative ads -- have boosted the prospects of the Republican presidential candidate. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll also points to a big challenge for Sen. Obama as his party gathers in Denver next week for its convention: rallying Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters to his cause. Only half of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries say they are now supporting Sen. Obama. One in five is supporting Sen. McCain... Overall, the poll finds the race a statistical dead heat, with 45% favoring Sen. Obama and 42% Sen. McCain. That three-point Obama advantage is down from six points a month ago, a trend found in other national polls as well. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning the Obama lead could range from zero to six points. The poll has some cautionary notes for Sen. McCain as well. It shows that his supporters are much less enthusiastic than Sen. Obama's, and finds widespread concern among voters about his age.

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McCain Erases Obama's Edge with Swing Voters (David R. Sands, Washington Times)
Independent voters, who clearly preferred the Democrat in previous surveys, now favor Mr. McCain by a 45 percent to 35 percent margin, according to the bipartisan George Washington University/Battleground 2008 poll published Wednesday. The Republican candidate is in a statistical tie with Mr. Obama on what was supposed to be a Democratic strong suit: dealing with the economy.

BY GEORGE, IT'S BARACK
(Steven Stark, Boston Phoenix) 

Right now, everyone is focused on Barack Obama's vice-presidential choice. But historically, convention acceptance speeches matter even more. When Obama gives his acceptance speech next Thursday night, it will offer him his best chance to recast his candidacy before November. Next to the debates, these speeches make for the campaign's most decisive moments. They are the time when the voters first judge a candidate as a potential president. And, throughout the years, they have been the time when various nominees -- from FDR to Ronald Reagan, and beyond -- have set out the themes that have defined their candidacies, and even their presidencies. In his speech, Obama really has one task: he has to make himself part of the great American story, so as to convince the average voter that he's "one of us."

CONVENTIONS NEED A BELIEVABLE SCRIPT
(Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal)

What must Barack Obama and John McCain achieve at their conventions? Conventions are the best, most controlled opportunities left for the candidates. Only the debates come close in impact, but they are unpredictable and not susceptible to the choreography available at the conventions. Mr. McCain's handlers must achieve three things. First is a greater public awareness of the character that makes him worthy of the Oval Office... Mr. McCain's second goal is to persuade Americans he can tackle domestic challenges... Third, Mr. McCain must show voters he remains a maverick who will, as president, work across party lines as he has as senator... Mr. Obama, on the other hand, needs to reassure Americans he is up to the job. Voters recognize he represents change, yet they are unsettled. Does he have the experience to be president?

OBAMA SHIFTS MESSAGE TO EVERYDAY CONCERNS
(Katharine Q. Seelye, New York Times)

Senator Barack Obama has sharpened his stump speech, delivering a more populist message that further highlights his differences with Senator John McCain, particularly on the economy. Since he returned from vacation in Hawaii last week, Mr. Obama has intensified his focus on the economic pressures facing everyday Americans and portrayed Mr. McCain as an active participant in the policies of the last eight years, saying they have left more people behind. Instead of focusing on the promise of sweeping change that propelled him to the nomination, Mr. Obama this week has been echoing Bill Clinton’s 1992 promise to “fight for you every single day.” The tightened message is part of a continuing effort since the primaries to bring his oratory down to a more human scale. It also coincides with Mr. Obama’s slip in public opinion polls, with some, including the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, putting him and Mr. McCain neck and neck.

THE SILVER BULLET
(Lois Romano, Washington Post)

Last month, McCain asked Schmidt to take over the daily operations of an unfocused campaign that was languishing in Barack Obama's shadow... Schmidt wasted no time shaking up the campaign like a California earthquake. He centralized power at headquarters between himself and campaign manager Rick Davis, who has been overseeing the convention, fundraising and the vice-presidential selection. He made sure everyone understood their jobs and was communicating with each other. He insisted that aides stick to a closely controlled message, and he pushed for a more aggressive stance against Barack Obama. Within weeks, McCain was ridiculing Obama's rock-star image in a provocative ad comparing him to Britney Spears, and seizing every opportunity to hammer him -- for canceling a visit to the troops, accusing him of suggesting McCain was a racist, painting him as an elitist -- all designed to make voters question whether he is ready to be president. At the same time, McCain himself has stuck to Schmidt's playbook with uncharacteristic discipline, even abandoning his daily freewheeling exchange with reporters. Some loyalists complain that this new, more negative strategy is demeaning to McCain, and killing his trademark spontaneity and candor. But there is no question that it is working.

NO SINGLE-TERM PLEDGE FOR MCCAIN
(Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin, Politico)

John McCain stated unequivocally in an interview with Politico Wednesday that he would not pledge to serve only a single four-year term, rejecting a suggestion that some allies believe would allay questions about his age and underscore his non-partisan message of putting country first. “No,” McCain said flatly, “I’m not considering it.” There has been speculation that McCain, 71, could couple a single term promise with a untraditional running mate such as Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman to make the case that he would shove political interests aside and run a consensus-oriented government with the Democratic-held Congress. McCain did, though, sketch out in a half-hour conversation in this college town not far from the Mexican border what his presidency would look like, drawing implicit contrasts with President Bush in the process. Speaking to Politico just after finishing a town hall meeting, the Arizona senator vowed closer relations with Congress, a more open dialogue with the American people and a commitment to address some of the thorniest issues facing the country. But he declined to outwardly criticize Bush and flatly stated that he wouldn’t do anything as president to underscore his difference with the unpopular incumbent. 

RURAL SWATH OF BIG STATE TESTS OBAMA
(Michael Powell, New York Times) 

To roam the rural reaches of western Pennsylvania, through largely white working-class counties, is to understand the breadth of the challenge facing the two presidential candidates. But this economically ravaged region, once so solidly Democratic, poses a particular hurdle for Senator Obama. From the desolation of Aliquippa — where the Jones & Laughlin steel mill loomed at the foot of the main boulevard — to the fading beauty of Beaver Falls to the neatly tended homes of retired steel workers in Hopewell, one hears much hesitating talk about Mr. Obama, some simply quizzical or skeptically political, and some not-so-subtly racial. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York ran 40 percentage points ahead of Mr. Obama here during the Democratic primary. With its neighborhoods of white working-class laborers and retirees and fraying party loyalties, it has become a most uncertain political terrain and an inviting target for Mr. McCain — and one that could tip the electoral balance in Pennsylvania, a place packed with electoral votes.

IN N.H., A DEAL TO CLOSE
(David Broder, Washington Post)

In 2000, President Bush carried New Hampshire by 7,000 votes and in 2004, he lost it by 9,000 -- barely 1 percent each time. In Lyndeborough, Bush won by 16 votes, then lost by 7. In last winter's primary, McCain, who won in New Hampshire, defeated Mitt Romney here by 19 votes, and Hillary Clinton had a 32-vote margin over Barack Obama on the way to her first victory of the year. Everything I heard here points to another close finish in November. With one exception, there are few visible scars left from the primary. Obama has secured most of the Clinton supporters -- though not without some doubts. Like most of the others interviewed, Gordon Starrweather, the owner-driver of an oil burner company, said the economy is "pretty bad." He backed Clinton because he thought she had the best ideas for improving things, but over time, he has come to think Obama might be the stronger candidate. Still, he wonders if Obama will really do what he promises. On the Republican side, those who backed Romney and Mike Huckabee earlier this year have accommodated to McCain without anxiety. Kenneth Young, bearded and ponytailed, was a Romney voter. He finds McCain "a little liberal for me," but he has no interest in Obama and hopes McCain might choose Romney as his running mate.

MCCAIN HOPES TO TURN THE TIDE IN GREAT LAKES AREA
(Liz Sidoti and Brian Bakst, Associated Press)

The GOP presidential candidate is mounting strong challenges to Democratic rival Barack Obama in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and eyeing Minnesota — four states that have thwarted Republicans in at least four straight elections. The Arizona senator is also fighting to hang on to Ohio, a bellwether that President Bush won twice... This year McCain views the region as his best, if not his only, chance to keep a Republican in the White House in an election season that strongly favors Democrats after eight years of President Bush. All five states were decided by narrow margins four years ago. They are home to large numbers of blue-collar whites, whom Obama has struggled to win over; senior citizens, who polls show tilt toward McCain; and Catholics, a swing-voting constituency. These groups comprise the bulk of the right-leaning suburban Democrats who were successfully courted by Ronald Reagan in the 1980s and may be attracted to McCain if he can keep his distance from Bush. In addition, each state has rural conservative voters who could reject Obama's liberal voting record and, perhaps, his race.

OBAMA'S VP: THE CANDIDATE DROPS SOME HINTS
(Karen Tumulty, Time)

The question I asked Obama was what his choice of a running mate would tell the country about Obama himself... So let's do some deconstruction, read some tea leaves, and try to figure out who Obama is--and isn't--talking about: I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press... Okay, so the first qualification he mentions is someone who won't be all that interested in getting his or her name in the media. That would seem a high bar for the famously voluble Joe Biden to clear. I think people will see that I'm not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths... Here, interestingly, the word he chooses is "complement," not "supplement" or "augment." This would suggest that this choice will be someone who has experience or expertise that Obama himself lacks, rather than a pick--such as Bill Clinton's of Al Gore in 1992--that reinforces his message. My guess here is that is not good news for either Governor Kathleen Sebelius or Tim Kaine. I'm not a believer in a government of yes—men... This may well be the most telling part of his answer. It sounds as though he is offering a rationale for picking someone who has disagreed with him in the past on something big, and the Iraq War immediately leaps to mind. All that put together, if I were to guess who it would be based strictly on what Obama himself has said, I would say the pick is either Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana (low profile, both executive and foreign policy experience, but a supporter of the Iraq War), or a surprise whose name has not been circulating on the pundits' short lists.

 

CONSERVATIVES URGE MCCAIN TO PICK A RUNNING MATE WHO OPPOSES ABORTION
(Maeve Reston and Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times) 

At a town hall meeting Wednesday in Las Cruces, Republican voter Sandy Gaupel asked McCain about the abortion issue -- explaining in an interview afterward that she wanted personal reassurance from McCain that he would not pick Ridge or Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, who is now an independent. "I've heard a rumor that you're going to pick a pro-[choice] VP -- is that true?" Gaupel asked McCain. McCain told the audience he would not discuss the selection process but said he was proud of his "pro-life record in Congress." "I respect the views of others," he said, adding that he believed "life applies to those that are not born as well as those that are born." Midway through the town hall meeting, another voter broached the topic. "In the past, you've alienated a great deal of conservatives, who believe that conservative principles are always the answer, by stepping across the aisle," the man told McCain. "Are you going to pick a vice president that conservatives can actually rally around in the future, or are you going to give us someone who will cause us to want to stay home perhaps?" McCain did not answer the question directly -- saying instead that polls indicate he's "doing very well with the base" and that he would try to energize conservatives concerned about national security and fiscal responsibility in Washington.

LIEBERMAN AGONISTES
(Wall Street Journal)

The Republican blogosphere is erupting over rumors that Mr. McCain might choose Mr. Lieberman as his vice president. Our email box is full of panicky reports that the Arizona Republican is giving it serious thought, and that this would doom Mr. McCain's chances in November. Mr. Lieberman is pro-choice on abortion, he's a liberal on this or that, and in any case isn't there any Republican who could fill the bill? Or so goes the anticipatory outrage. Our own view is that Mr. Lieberman would make a fine Secretary of State, and that, given the political risks, making him vice president would probably be too great an election gamble. But Mr. Lieberman's national security credentials are first-rate, and we've known him long enough to remember his opposition to an income tax in Connecticut, and his support for lower capital gains taxes, school vouchers and private Social Security accounts. Liberated from having to run as a Democrat, he might recall those policy instincts.

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