A Guest Post by Brian No
John McCain's recent comments to
a Colorado newspaper that a 1922 seven-state agreement governing the use of the
Colorado River "obviously needs to be renegotiated over time" may sound
completely innocuous, perhaps even sensible, to most people.
But to Colorado voters, McCain
might as well have said he likes to eat cute puppies for breakfast. It's hard
to explain to a non-Coloradan the outsized significance of the Colorado River--and
its coveted snowmelt water--within the state. "Over my dead body," Sen. Ken Salazar
(D-CO) said in a statement. To which Republican senate candidate Bob Schaffer
added, "Over my cold, dead, political carcass." Get the point?
In this arid region of the
country, rural farmers depend on the river's water, and after enduring the
worst drought since the 18th century in recent years, any notion
that Scottsdale golfers and Bellagio gamblers need more water than they're
currently allotted is basically Rule #1 under What Not to Say in Colorado. Just
as Yucca Mountain is a nuclear issue in Nevada-pun intended-Coloradans often
quote Mark Twain, who's rumored to have said, "Whiskey is for drinking; water
is for fighting over." Many local pundits in Colorado are already asking
whether "McCain just lo[st] Colorado."
For decades, Colorado has been a
reliable red state in presidential elections, but this year the Centennial
State is shaping up to be a true battleground--possibly playing a decisive role
in the Electoral College math. The DNC's decision to host its convention here
was no accident. Recent polls have the race neck-and-neck, with the latest
averages from Real Clear Politics showing McCain and Obama tied at about 45
percent. If Obama is able to add Iowa and New Mexico to John Kerry's 2004 map, then
pick off Colorado's nine electoral votes, he'll win the election.
At first glance, Colorado is a state
where McCain should be easily ahead. Since 1964, it's gone blue just once--when
Ross Perot garnered 24 percent of the votes and boosted Bill Clinton to victory
in 1992. Furthermore, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats, with Colorado
Springs--home to James Dobson's Focus on the Family--emerging as a major
evangelical base. And remember Tom Tancredo? He's represents a Denver suburb.
The fact that McCain is a familiar face from a neighboring state should also
earn him some support.
That said, Colorado has
experienced a Democratic renaissance in recent years. In 2004, there was only
one Democrat who held a statewide office. Today, Democrats control the
legislature, the governor's mansion, four of seven House districts and one of
two Senate seats, with Democratic Rep. Mark Udall favored to win the other this
November. Just like the rest of the country, the economy, energy prices and the
Iraq War have emerged as top concerns, helping to fuel Colorado's
"purple-ization." But there are other, more permanent trends at play as well.
The burgeoning Latino population and an influx of young high-tech professionals
from places like California and Texas have made Colorado a more hospitable climate
for Democrats in recent decades. And historically, Mountain West voters have
been known for their libertarian streak, often eschewing party loyalty. Simply
put, people in the Mountain West want to be left alone. It's no surprise that
independents make up the second biggest voting group in Colorado.
Whether Obama can win Colorado is
up in the air. Despite the changing demographics and the unpopularity of the
current administration, it's still a right-of-center state in a conservative
region of the country. But Colorado voters have been kind to the pragmatic,
unpretentious, authentic politician-regardless of party affiliation.
McCain was seemingly speaking as an Arizonan when he
made his recent water gaffe, but his suggestion that Coloradans give up more of
its scarcest resource could very well cost him votes this November. Obama,
despite his advantages in cash and national mood, is fighting against history
in trying to win Colorado. If he wants to take the state, he'll need all the help he can
get. In other words, Obama would be foolish not to exploit what was a shocking heresy on
McCain's part--at least to the ears of Coloradans.
Previous Colorado coverage:
Can Obama Win Out West?
A Plan to Swing Colorado
