DENVER--Talk about a time warp.
Judging
by the early chatter out here in Denver, you'd think this year's Democratic nominating
convention was happening in 1992. Why? Because everyone's obsessing
over the Clintons. Reports that Hillary "wasn't vetted" for the veep
slot have spread like wildfire, spurring a small but vocal posse of
disgruntled Clintonistas to wail that Obama is not doing right by her,
and never has--nevermind that she asked to skip the formal process, or
that Team Obama had more than enough info after 17 months of oppo
research to evaluate her alongside her fellow finalists. This gnashing
of teeth and rending of garments has in turn encouraged the McCain
campaign to release a pair of troublemaking ads questioning why Obama
didn't pick Clinton, including its latest, "Debra," which features a
Clinton delegate saying "a lot of Democrats will vote McCain" because
he's the only "one with the experience and judgment to be president."
Smelling drama--or at least the illusion thereof--the press has
pounced, producing a flurry of breathless reports on the tensions that
either a) "boil between the Obama [and] Clinton camps" or b) "linger as some Clinton supporters are left frustrated."
Others have opined that with Hillary speaking Tuesday, Bill speaking
Wednesday and Hillary's name being placed into nomination Thursday,
Team Obama has effectively let her steal the show and undermine that
whole purpose of the convention (that is, to launch Obama's candidacy
in earnest). Either way, the convention, according to the chatterati,
is shaping up to be a Clinton-Obama cagematch.
Please. Anyone
who thinks that a roll-call vote and some sad silver-medalists
constitutes a controversial convention probably didn't pay much
attention in U.S. Politics 101. "By historical standards the Clinton
nomination is totally mild," says Costas Panagopoulos, professor of
political science at Fordham University and author of "Presidential
Nominating Conventions in the Media Age". "Looking back historically,
conventions have tended to be hotbeds of controversy, and this year
simply won't compare." The most extreme example of conflict, of course,
was the rioting at 1968's Democratic convention in Chicago-think window
smashing and police beatings. But a convention doesn't need armed
combat to qualify as controversial. In 1860, the Democrats were so
divided over slavery that they held two conventions, eventually
convening in Baltimore despite the absence of the entire Southern wing
of the party, which was boycotting the nomination of Stephen Douglas.
In 1896, 36-year-old Nebraska Congressman William Jennings Bryan wasn't
even considered a presidential contender upon his arrival--until his
fiery speech calling for the free coinage of silver so electrified
delegates that they spontaneously awarded him the nomination. In 1924,
it took the Dems 103 convention ballots to settle on hapless nominee
John Davis, and 28 years later they drafted Illinois governor Adlai
Stevenson after three divided votes--even though he'd said repeatedly
that he didn't want the job. Even the supposedly "controversial"
decision to place Clinton's name in nomination is hardly
unprecedented--runners-up Ted Kennedy (1980), Gary Hart (1984) and
Jerry Brown (1992) all received the same treatment, and they won far
fewer votes and boasted far fewer delegates than the former first lady.
Given that Clinton herself has frequently emphasized unity--even going
so far as to deploy a 40-person floor team meant to keep her supporters
in line--the chances that she'll deliver an off-message speech (like
Pat Buchanan in 1988) or give Obama the cold shoulder (like Kennedy did
to Carter in 1980) are exceedingly slim. "At the end of the day, the
convention will go smoothly," says Panagopoulos. "The Dems realize
there's a high price to pay if it doesn't, and no one--not Clinton, not
Obama, not vast majority of the delegates--is willing to take that kind
of risk."
Still, don't expect that to stop the press from
reporting on this year's festivities as if war had broken out in
Denver. Even though nominating conventions have become almost
completely newsless affairs in recent years--notice how the whole
"choosing a nominee" part of the process has already, you know,
happened--the MSM is devoting more money, more bodies and more space
(primarily online) to covering them than ever before. In theory,
that's dandy; in practice, it totally skews the signal-to-noise ratio.
While the demand (if not the audience) for convention coverage has
presumably increased, the supply has drastically declined. To fill the
growing void with the stuff of news-that is, conflict--the media is
content to make ever-bigger mountains out of ever-smaller molehills.
And this year's molehill is the Clinton controversy. "No offense to
your profession, but there will be 15,000 journalists in Denver seeking
to make any minor differences seem like a major controversy," says
Panagopoulos. "They'll be reading between every line to detect notes of
disunity." Ultimately, scrutiny will help Obama as much as it helps the
networks--as Panagopoulos notes, the "nice thing about the appearance
of controversy is that it attracts attention and pulls in viewers who
would've otherwise not watched the convention." (And remember: the
Clintons will be singing Obama's praises on stage, and her supporters
would've been a lot angrier had they been denied a roll call vote.
That's more unity, not less.) As for the rest of America, though,
hyperbole isn't particularly useful. So while you're watching Wolf
Blitzer and Chris Matthews jabber endlessly about this year's soap
opera, just remember what real conflict looks like--and adjust the
volume accordingly.