Going down?

On Tuesday, I reported that Sarah Palin's favorability ratings, which peaked shortly after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, were starting to slip. Between Sept. 13 and Sept. 17, the Alaska governor's unfavorables had climbed in the Diageo/Hotline poll from 30 percent to 37 percent; her favorables, meanwhile, had fallen from 52 percent to 47 percent. All in all, she'd gone from the most to least popular White House hopeful over the course of five short days.

The reason? "I suspect that we're starting to see Palin's considerable novelty wear off," I wrote. "Between now and Nov. 4, voters will stop seeing Palin as a fascinating story and starting taking her measure as an actual candidate for office. Some will approve; some won't... But it's hard to argue that the journey from intriguing new superstar to earthbound politician--a necessary part of the process--doesn't involve a loss of altitude. Just ask Barack Obama."

Still, I was careful to add that "we should hold off on drawing any hard and fast conclusions until more polling comes out." Well, now it has--and the stats confirm my initial hunch. According to the Research 2000 daily tracking poll--which is conducted for the liberal blog DailyKos by a nonpartisan firm that ranks as one of the most accurate in the field--Palin's favorability rating has been steadily declining since Sept. 11, when it topped out at 52 percent favorable / 35 percent unfavorable (+17). On Monday, Palin's positives and negatives flatlined; by this morning, more respondents disapproved (46 percent) than approved (42 percent) of the Republican vice-presidential nominee. Lest you discount a poll commissioned by a Democratic organization--and something tells me that many of you will--the latest survey from CBS News and the New York Times shows a similar decline. On Sept. 8, Palin boasted a 44-22 favorable-unfavorable rating. Today, her split is 40-30. That's the exact same net swing of -12 points found in the Diageo/Hotline poll.

Whether Palin's slippage affects McCain's bid remains to be seen. But to deny that she's slipping is no longer a reality-based proposition.