(AP Photo / Gerald Herbert)
In a statement delivered this afternoon in New York City, John
McCain announced that he will temporarily suspend his presidential
campaign Thursday morning and return to Washington to address the
financial crisis. As a result, he requested that Friday's
foreign-policy debate in Oxford, Miss., be delayed and urged rival
Barack Obama to join him in the capital for a summit with top
congressional leaders.
"I am calling on the president to convene a meeting with the
leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and
myself," McCain said. "It is time for both parties to come together to
solve this problem."
The announcement comes a day after this blog noted the
remarkable similarities between McCain and Barack Obama's lists of recommended
"improvements" for the mammoth $700 billion Treasury bailout bill--and criticized both candidates for continuing to "us[e]
the bailout to bludgeon each other daily on the campaign trail,"
suggesting that the real political advantage might lie elsewhere. Namely, in the swamp.
"Why don't the two most powerful politicians in the country at this
point--two politicians who profess to be uncommonly bipartisan--go back
to Washington and lead the bipartisan effort to get America out of this
catastrophic financial mess?" we asked. "Why don't they steer Congress
in the direction--toward Main Street and away from Wall Street--they
both agree it should go?"
Now, it seems, that's exactly what McCain intends to do. There's no
doubt that much of Arizona senator's motivation is political. According
to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll,
Obama's double-digit advantage on handling the Wall Street meltdown has
propelled him to a 52-43 percent lead among likely voters, up from a
47-49 percent McCain advantage immediately after the Republican
National Convention. Other polls--both state and national--have
shown a similar swing. By "suspending" his campaign and heading back to
the Beltway, McCain is doing a couple things. He's shifting the
narrative away from his dismal numbers and campaign manager Rick
Davis's ties to Freddie Mac. He's attempting to counter the growing
impression that he's ill-equipped to serve as the economy's steward by
displaying "leadership" in a time of crisis. He's wriggling out of the
box congressional Dems were hoping to squeeze him into. He's potentially postponing the foreign-policy debate to a time when it would have greater impact. And he's
seeking to rise above the fray and reinforce the message that he "puts
country before politics." To emphasize that theme, McCain has
canceled tonight's appearance on David Letterman and instructed his
staff to take his campaign commercials off the air. Will voters find his decision to "take action" compelling--even though he doesn't sit on any of the relevant committees? We'll see soon enough.
The maneuver has the added benefit--at least for McCain--of putting
Obama in a bit of bind. Either the Illinois senator flies from Florida
to Washington and looks as if he's following McCain's lead or he
dismisses McCain's move as a stunt and gives the GOP more fodder to call Obama an
"all talk, no action" phony who puts "self before country." Either option has the potential to undermine
Obama's greatest advantage--the perception that he's the better
economic leader. For Chicago, the delicate political calculus was
immediately apparent, as Obama spokesman Bill Burton swiftly claimed
credit for the new spirit of solidarity in an e-mail to reporters that
said it was Obama who called McCain this morning to
pitch a joint statement "outlining their shared principles and
conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White
House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal." Within
minutes, the McCain campaign disputed
Burton's timeline, saying that McCain never received the morning call
and had subsequently proposed the "suspension" to Obama at 2:30 p.m. with no
knowledge of Obama's original pitch. Call it the politics of pretending
to suspend politics.
Despite Chicago's touchiness, there's no guarantee that McCain
will benefit politically from his latest gambit. Voters might conclude
he's avoiding a debate that--despite its ostensible focus on foreign
policy--promised to touch on uncomfortable economic issues, as well.
After all, McCain could potentially work on the bill and then travel to Mississippi--an argument the debate's organizers
and the Obama campaign are sure to make in the hours ahead. Some
moderates may see this maneuver as further evidence of McCain's
erratic, impulsive temperament. Others could interpret it as a
desperate gimmick, given that McCain's isn't "suspending" anything
other than two days of debate prep. The Democratic congressional
leadership won't make it easy for McCain to claim victory, which will further politicize the process.
(Harry Reid is already saying his presence "would not be helpful"--even
after urging McCain to get involved yesterday.) And
if the final bailout is unpopular with the public--which seems
likely--McCain could be blamed. So there are significant risks
involved.
But for today, this is almost all upside for McCain, at least
politically. He presents himself as a bipartisan leader. He puts Obama
on the defensive. He shifts the media narrative onto favorable terrain
and dominates the news. And politics aside, there's the always a
chance--which I flicked at yesterday--that rolling up his sleeves and
engaging in a little bipartisan action will actually help make the bill
better. That question is whether the benefits will last. As the New
Republic's Michael Crowley notes, the ultimate assessment of McCain's gambit should hinge on whether he
"play[s] a convincingly important and useful role in the Washington
legislative process, one that pleases independents and his base alike."
And that's significantly more difficult than simply skipping Letterman.
UPDATE, 4:45 p.m.: From Florida, Obama responds by calling
for the debate to proceed as planned--and mocking McCain's apparent
unwillingness to multitask:
“It’s my belief that this is exactly the time the American people
need to hear from the person who in approximately 40 days will be
responsible with dealing with this mess ... What I think is important
is that we don’t suddenly infuse Capitol Hill with presidential
politics ... Presidents are going to have to deal with more than one
thing at a time. It’s not necessary for us to think that we can do only
one thing, and suspend everything else."
Strikes me as reasonable--the best he could do in a difficult
situation. Obama also recounted his version of the timeline to make the
important point that if McCain were really interested in bipartisan
solutions he would've settled on a plan in private before going in front
of the cameras. "The only possible miscommunication might have been how
quickly there was an announcement and somebody was on television,"
Obama said. "My assumption was that the joint statement would go
out--initially."
My hunch is that Friday's debate won't happen
unless Congress miraculously hammers out an agreement before then.
McCain can't go back on his suspension without looking weak--so I
suspect he'll skip it.
The bottom line: the
political success of McCain's maneuver will turn on whether the
public sees him as shirking his duties as a presidential candidate or fulfilling
his duties as a public servant.
UPDATE, 9:26 p.m.: Via Ben Smith:
CNN reports
that McCain's campaign is proposing swapping the planned Friday debate
for next Thursday's vice presidential debate if, and only if, there
isn't a bailout deal reached by Friday. There was already a reasonable chance that a deal would be reached
by Friday; now, if it is, McCain can declare victory and head to
Mississippi, having retaken some of the initiative.
I'd change "can declare victory" to "will declare victory." It's
still uncertain how the electorate will interpret McCain's involvement.