(Gerald Herbert / AP)
In a statement emailed to
reporters at 11:24 this morning, John McCain spokesman Brian Rogers announced that the
"McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel
to the debate this afternoon."
I'm thinking of suing for whiplash.
At first, I was willing to give McCain the benefit of the doubt on his "amazing gambit." As I wrote yesterday,
if he, Obama and Bush had emerged from Thursday's White House summit
having ratified the fragile preliminary agreement between Treasury Secretary Henry
Paulson, the Administration, congressional Democrats and Senate
Republicans--four of the five parties necessary for consensus--I
would've said "no harm, no foul." McCain may have been irrelevant, but
at least he wouldn't have been a destructive force. In that case,
debate away. But instead he's proven to be a bull in a china shop--or,
more accurately, a bull that 1) misleadingly says the china shop is in
disarray before he enters; 2) vows not to leave until he cleans
up; 3) enters and shatters everything in sight; 4) blames
everyone else for the damage and 5) leaves, claiming a job well done.
Here's what happened yesterday, according to the chronology I've cobbled together from news reports.
By 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday, "the House and Senate Democrats had settled their most
important differences, the White House had caved on CEO pays, and the
two sides were coming close to dealing with the bailout's oversight
mechanism, its posture toward homeowners, and whether taxpayers would
get ownership stakes in taken-over companies." As many as 40 of the 49 Senate Republicans were ready
to support the bailout. House Republicans were grumbling, but without
anyone to legitimate their revolt, they weren't making much noise. House Minority Leader John Boehner even issued a joint statement with Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday night declaring
bipartisan progress.
Then McCain arrived, uninvited, in Washington, loudly announcing that "no
consensus has developed" and that "the plan on the table will [not]
pass."
Emboldened, the House Republicans raised the volume of their objections, possibly to save face for McCain and create the impression that he had
come to the rescue. As Boehner's top aide told the New York Times this morning, "Republicans revolted, in part, because
they were chafing at what they saw as an attempt by Democrats to jam through an
agreement on the bailout early Thursday and deny Mr. McCain an opportunity to
participate in the agreement"--even though Bush and Senate Republicans also favored the renegotiated bailout plan.
At this point, McCain could've attempted to bring the House
Republicans on board. He could've explained that government intervention was
unfortunate but necessary. That would have given him cover to claim
that he'd helped restore equilibrium (even if he had also helped disrupt it). But when the Arizona senator arrived at the White House
summit arranged for his benefit, he "sat silently for more than 40 minutes, more observer than leader, and then
offered only a vague sense of where he stood." He did little else to forge a compromise. As the Washington Post reported, "McCain shuttled between meetings and his Senate office but rarely
came close to the Capitol suites and committee rooms where the talks were taking
place."
After hours of phone calls and huddles on Capitol Hill,
Congressional negotiators finally gave up for the night. It was about 10:30
p.m. The bill's fate was more
uncertain than it had been midweek, and the level of rancor among
legislators had reached a new high. The Beltway was back at Square One--or Square Negative One. And McCain was the variable.
Then he declares "Mission Accomplished."
When suspending his campaign on Wednesday and threatening not to debate, McCain defined his goal as "achiev[ing] consensus on
legislation." But at 11:24 this morning, consensus was conspicuously absent on Capitol Hill. Which meant, as the New Republic's Michael Crowley puts it, that "by McCain's original logic, the argument for staying in Washington ha[d] gotten stronger [since his arrival], not weaker." As a result, McCain's announcement that he's now flying to Ole Miss--a stark reversal from his earlier insistence on not debating unless a deal is done--only reinforces the impression that suspending his campaign was
a stunt (even if it wasn't). First he'd settle for nothing short of
"consensus" and "legislation." Now being "optimistic" that
"significant progress" has taken place---not certain, but "optimistic"--is enough to declare victory. After insisting that it would be unpatriotic to debate before the deal was done, McCain is debating anyway--even though a deal seems more distant than when he
suspended his campaign. McCain wanted to look strong and apolitical. He wound up looking weak and opportunistic instead.
In the Rogers statement, McCain goes so far as to imply that Obama's "political posturing" was the reason he left D.C.--immediately after denouncing "Washington" for "play[ing] the
blame game rather than work[ing] together to find a solution." Some should get the man a mirror.
As far as how this will play, Crowley took the words right out of my mouth--so I'll just pass the mic:
In these situations I'm inclined to think
most voters... will only have an impressionistic sense of what's going on.
Initially I think the impression was likely to be that McCain showed
leadership and took charge of the situation after a stretch when both
candidates looked passive. Even if McCain parachuted in just as a deal
was passing and played no role, it seemed possible that he could steal
some credit. But now the low-information voter, if you will,
probably has a sense that the minute McCain hit the ground everything
in Washington went to hell in a familiar, absurd, system-is-broken
kind of way. And now he's getting out of Dodge. Hard to see how that's
a net gain for him.
Congressional negotiators could hammer out a deal before the markets
close today. They could settle on a framework that has the support of
House Republicans. Or this fragile situation could devolve into a
protracted stalemate. Obviously, the first option is better for McCain--who will return this weekend to Washington--than the third. But given that the nominee "got out of Dodge" before
the shattered china was reassembled--his stated reason, after
all, for putting "politics before country" and suspending his
campaign--it's hard to see why voters should give him credit for
anything other than making things worse.
UPDATE, 3:34 p.m.: Eve Fairbanks dissects "How McCain's Gambit Could Work"--and explains why it shouldn't:
[Republicans will say that] McCain understood the anti-bailout-bill sentiment outside of
Washington and then gave House Republicans the political backup to buck
the pressure to compromise. In a vacuum, it's an appealing populist
narrative, and in a vacuum I even think it works -- witness the success
of the Republicans' "we understand what the country really wants,
unlike you Democrat stuffed suits" posturing on oil drilling this
summer.
It doesn't work if Democrats point out -- again and
again and again -- the 180 degree turn this represents from McCain's
original, anti-populist rationale for going to Washington: to support the
compromise and to lend his expertise at bipartisan, smoke-filled-room
negotiations, not to undermine them on behalf of "the taxpayers." McCain's motivational switcheroo -- and the
reporting that he passed Bush's "summit" yesterday with Paulson in
silence...-- ought to cement his reputation as a
chaos-creating, erratic, back-and-forth decisionmaker.
Thoughts?
