Forget the impending financial apocalypse for a second. Who the heck is winning this thing?
The last time we asked that question,
the answer didn't bode particularly well for Barack Obama. It was Sept.
15, and John McCain was still enjoying his post-convention bounce.
Although Obama held a slight, 273-265 lead on the electoral map, I
wrote, "the
Red States had gotten redder--and the Blue States had gotten purpler"
since the Democrats left Denver. What's more, McCain had an "advantage in the [Real Clear Politics] average [of national surveys]--his first since Hillary Clinton hung up
her spurs."
"What the last week of polling has shown
beyond any doubt," I concluded, "is that McCain's successful convention and shocking
choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate have shifted the map ever so
slightly to the right, transforming a landscape that favored Obama into
a landscape that favors, well, no one."
Not anymore.
It's been two weeks since we last surveyed the state of
play--but for McCain it's probably felt more like an eternity. First,
the Wall Street meltdown shifted the spotlight to a subject (the
economy) that voters typically trust Democrats to deal with--and
McCain's controversial response did little to close the gap. According
to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll,
for example, 64 percent of likely voters said they're either very or
somewhat confident that Obama would "make the right decisions" on the
econony, compared to only 55 percent for McCain (his "not confident"
rating: 45 percent). Meanwhile, Palin's approval ratings have plummeted
after a series of shaky interviews from 60 percent or more (circa St.
Paul) to less than 50 percent today, as her disapproval ratings have
crept up near the 40 percent mark. Overlaid upon the immutable
anti-Republican contours of the race--three-quarters of voters say the
country is on the wrong track; Democrats typically hold a dozen-point advantage
in generic Congressional polling--McCain's dodgy fortnight has boosted
Obama to his most commanding lead since the general election began in
earnest.
In other word, Obama is winning.
Let's look at the numbers. From the end of the primary season on June 3 until the
shortly before the start of the Democratic Convention late last month,
the Real Clear Politics average--a
blend
of the most recent half dozen or so national match-ups between Obama
and McCain--told an essentially static story: despite
never breaking the magical 50 percent mark, Obama led McCain by a
steady three to six points for months. But two back-to-back
conventions--which typically mark the point when the public begins to
pay attention--scrambled those jets, and by Sept. 8, McCain was ahead
in the RCP round-up by about three points (48.3 to 45.4). That would be
his high-water mark. Starting on Sept. 15, McCain's average has slipped
four points (from 47 to 43 percent). Meanwhile, Obama has made
mirror-image gains, climbing from a low point of 44.7 percent to
today's high of 48. Not counting his artifical post-Denver spike,
Obama's current average national lead over McCain (about five points)
and level of support (48 percent) are his most robust since the dog
days of mid-July. No national poll taken since Sept. 22--with the exception of one flawed outlier--shows
Obama with anything less than a five-point lead. Four soundings since
Sept. 19 put his support over the magical 50 percent mark.
But as every political junkie knows,
presidential elections are fought on a state-by-state basis--not in the
national polls. So what's happening on the ground? Much of the map has
not changed since we last checked in: Obama is still winning every
state he was winning on Sept. 15, and McCain still leads in most of his
old, familiar territory as well. That said, there have been a few
significant shifts over the past two weeks--and all of them favor Obama.
First, two states that preferred McCain last time around--Virginia and
North Carolina--have gone from red to blue. Virginia is no surprise. A
prime Obama pick-off possibility, it has switched sides a whopping
seven times this cycle, and neither candidate has ever led there by
more than three points. Still, it's significant that Obama now holds his largest average advantage of the year--a still-slim 1.4 percent.
North Carolina is more surprising. On Sept. 15, McCain was clobbering
Obama 52 percent to 41 percent in the RCP average. But over the past
two weeks, a pair of surveys--PPP and Rasmussen--have given him a
two-point edge in their latest soundings; other polls show a sudden tie. As a result, Obama now leads in North Carolina by a razor-thin 0.7 percent margin.
Of course, the Illinois senator is still a longshot in Tar Heel country. That said, the GOP doesn't want to be
defending a state George W. Bush won by 13 points.
The second development may be even more troubling for McCain. According to RCP, every single
blue state on the Arizona's target list has become bluer since the
middle of the month. On Sept 17, McCain trailed Obama by a mere 2.7
percent in Wisconsin. But the two polls released since then--Research 2000 and Quinnipiac--show
Obama leading by a solid six and seven points, respectively. Minnesota
is a similar story: a 1.3 percent average gap on Sept. 17 has since
doubled, and the only survey (Rasmussen) taken entirely since that date puts Obama up by eight, 52-44. Meanwhile, Obama's average lead in Pennsylvania has increased from 1.3 percent to 5.5 percent over the same period of time, and his advantage in Michigan--McCain's
top target--has ballooned from two points to more than six. When fitted
with the final piece in the puzzle--growing Obama leads the Bush states
of Iowa (9.2 percent), New Mexico (6.0 percent) and Colorado
(5.0 percent)--it's hard to see how McCain reaches 270 electoral votes.
Unless, of course, something changes--which it undoubtedly will.
As
it stands now, McCain has fewer plausible paths to victory. To
win, Obama needs only to retain to Kerry's 251 electoral votes and flip
Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado--all three of which he currently leads by
an average of five points or more. What's more, if Colorado slips away,
Obama could still pick off Virginia, Ohio (where McCain leads by a mere 1.2 percent on average) or Florida (where McCain's average advantage
has plummeted since mid-month from more than six points to less than
one). McCain, on the other hand, needs to win a big Kerry state like
Michigan or Pennsylvania while retaining BOTH Colorado and Virginia; if
he loses either, he'll be forced to poach even more property from the
Democratic column. That would be a daunting task.
According to RCP, Obama would win 301 to 237 if the election were held today.
Does
this mean that McCain is toast? Hardly. As September has shown, support
for the candidates can fluctuate wildly in response to events, and
there's still time remaining on the clock for a comeback. Obama could still lose--easily. But it's
impossible to ignore the fact that the Arizona senator now faces a
steeper climb than ever before--with fewer days left for climbing. As
the New Republic's John Judis has pointed out, "since 1960, Gallup’s [Oct. 1] tracking poll
registered the winner in the popular vote (including Al Gore in 2000),
eleven of twelve times." Usually the race narrows somewhat at the end, but "in six of th[o]se elections--1960, 1964, 1976, 1984, 1988 and
2000--the final margin was different from the Oct. 1 polling
results by less than three percentage points."
Which is why Obamans should be heartened by the latest stats from Gallup:
Obama 50, McCain 42. On Election Day, the Bradley Effect--overstated
support for black candidates--may cost Obama two or three points at the
polls. Undersampled cell-phone voters and increased black and youth turnout
may boost him by the same amount--or more. But either way, the fact
remains: Obama merely needs to maintain altitude between now and Nov.
4. McCain needs to bring him down.
UPDATE, Oct. 1: The RCP map has shifted yet again. Thanks to new polls from Quinnipiac showing Obama ahead in Florida and Ohio by the shocking margins of 51-43 and 50-42, respectively, the Illinois senator now holds average polling leads in both Bush states, giving him an additional 48 electoral votes. Here's the new RCP landscape:
Does this mean Obama will win Florida and Ohio? Not at all. These polls could be outliers; things could change. And as Gawker's Peter Feld notes, much of "McCain's [national] support [has] gone... to undecided, not to Obama. With Barack at just around 50, there is still — barely — room for McCain to bounce back." That said, the new Quinnipiac stats do show that the Illinois senator is well-positioned to compete for the two most important electoral prizes. Which underscores the key dynamic of the current map: right now, Obama simply has far more paths to 270 than McCain.
