WARNING: Supergeeky content ahead.

Despite all my-blabbering and bloviating about "the latest polls," the only polls that matter are still the ones that close on Election Night.

Just not all of them. 

Why? Because some polls close earlier than others. Thanks to the magic of time zones, there will be a period of seven hours on the evening of Nov. 4 when we'll know some (but not all) of the results. And depending on what happens, "some" might be enough to know who's won.

To help guide you through Election Night, we here at Stumper headquarters have created a handy hour-by-hour "Choose Your Own Adventure" game. (Or quasi-"Choose Your Adventure" game.) NB: We're opearting under the assumption that states where one candidate leads by more than a dozen or so points aren't really up for grabs--Vermont, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Maine and Hawaii for Obama; Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Kansas, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas, Nebraska, Alaska and Idaho for McCain. The result: Obama starts with 207 electoral votes and McCain starts with 127.

Let's play.

(All Times Eastern)

6:00: Most polls close in Indiana. If McCain wins Indiana, wait until 7:00; If Obama wins Indiana, he's probably won the election. That's because Obama's current lead in Ohio (5.8 percent on average) is much larger than his current lead in Indiana (1.4 percent on average).Given their demographic similarities, it's unlikely that Obama would win the latter and lose the former--and without Ohio and Indiana, a McCain comeback is implausible. (OBAMA WIN SCENARIO #1)

Assuming that McCain has already won Indiana... 

7:00: Most polls close in Florida, Virginia and Georgia. If McCain wins all three, wait until 7:30. No one will be surprised if Florida (a true toss-up) and Georgia (a McCain leaner) go red, but the evaporation of Obama's 7.4 percent lead in Virginia would be a sign of trouble to come. If Obama wins only Virginia, he's on the road to victory; McCain would need to retain Iowa, Colorado AND New Mexico--or pick up a blue state--to compensate for the loss. If Obama wins Florida, the cake is probably baked; for McCain, there's no plausible road back to 270 that doesn't involve winning Pennsylvania and another mid-size blue state. And if Obama wins Florida and Virginia, go to bed. It's over. (OBAMA WIN SCENARIO #2)

7:30:  Polls close in Ohio.

Assuming that McCain has already won Florida and Virginia...

If McCain wins Ohio, he has a fighting chance to win the election. At this point, the senator would've overcome sizable Obama leads in both the the Buckeye State and the Old Dominion--an accomplishment that would cast doubt on Obama's similarly sizable leads in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Pennsylvania. Winning all four of those states would be Obama's only (plausible) remaining  path to victory. If Obama wins Ohio, wait until 8:00. The only way McCain could compensate for the loss of 20 electoral votes is with a victory in either Pennsylvania or New Hampshire (or, less plausibly, Minnesota or Wisconsin).

Assuming that Obama has already won either Florida OR Virginia...

If Obama wins Ohio, it's game, set, match. There's no saving McCain. (OBAMA WIN SCENARIO #3). If McCain wins Ohio, on the other hand, he stays alive--but just barely. In the win-Florida-win-Ohio-lose-Virginia scenario, McCain would have to win [Iowa, New Mexico AND Colorado] or [either Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin or New Hampshire] to survive; all six of those states show Obama ahead by more than eight points. In the win-Virginia-win-Ohio-lose-Florida scenario, McCain would have to pick up 11 Kerry electoral votes--even if he held every remaining Bush state (i.e.,Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada AND Colorado).

8:00: Polls close in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Missouri.

Assuming Obama has already won either Florida, Virginia OR Ohio...

If Obama wins Pennsylvania, McCain is skating on very thin ice. At this point, an Obama one-two punch in [either Florida or Ohio plus Pennsylvania] would effectively knock McCain out. (OBAMA WIN SCENARIO #4). The only survivable blow would be Virginia plus Pennsylvania. To claw his way back, the Republican would have to win Iowa, New Mexico AND Colorado--or either Minnesota or Wisconsin. If McCain wins Pennsylvania, who the heck knows. Simply put, it won't happen. An Obama victory in either Florida, Virginia or Ohio would be a sure sign that the Keystone State won't be flipping.

Assuming McCain has won Florida, Virginia AND Ohio...

If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he could still eke out a victory--provided he scores a straight flush in Iowa, New Mexico AND Colorado. Lose one of the three, however, and he's probably toast. If McCain wins Pennsylvania, he's the next president of the United States. (MCCAIN WIN SCENARIO #1)

Post-8:30: At this point, we'll probably have a pretty clear idea who's inheriting the White House from George W. Bush. If Obama keeps the John Kerry states and adds either Ohio, Florida or Virginia to the Democratic column, chances are he'll seal the deal at either 8:30 (when the polls close in North Carolina) or 9:00 (when the polls close in New Mexico and Colorado). Granted, McCain could still struggle back from a Virginia loss--but not if he loses [Minnesota and Wisconsin] OR [either New Mexico or Colorado] at 9:00. (Or, for that matter, North Carolina at 8:30.) That said, if McCain has already won Virginia--along with Ohio, Florida and Indiana--Obama's only (plausible) remaining path to victory runs through Iowa, New Mexico AND Colorado. If he loses one of the latter two at 9:00, it's curtains. If he wins both, the election will be decided 10:00 p.m.--in Iowa.

And we'd be back where we began.

Necessary caveat: The closer the results, the longer it takes the networks to call a state. So this entire chronology could be pushed back 30-60 minutes (or further) depending on the closeness of the incoming numbers.