Here's NEWSWEEK's Jonathan Alter on why Sarah Palin is all but set up for failure in the fall.

(READ STUMPER'S TAKE ON THE "EXPERIENCE" QUESTION HERE; MORE THOUGHTS ON PALIN HERE.) 

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's debut in Dayton on Friday was good political theater. She delivered a pitch-perfect speech (presumably written by McCain's ghost writer, Mark Salter) with a panache that suggests she could be a natural on the national stage. The well-kept secret of her selection let the GOP step on the story of Obama's boffo acceptance speech in Denver. It's not hard to see why she appealed to McCain: her middle-class roots; her older son headed for Iraq with the U.S. Army; her opposition to the earmarked "bridge to nowhere," which is arguably the only domestic issue that gets McCain excited. If camera-ready Palin helps McCain close the gender gap and win in November, she'll be history's hockey mom.

But there's a reason that rookies rarely score hat tricks. It's not her lack of name recognition; America loves a fresh face, especially one that's a cross between a Fox anchor and a character on "Northern Exposure," the old TV show about an Alaska town about the size of Wasilla. The problem is that politics, like all professions, isn't as easy as it looks. Palin's odds of emerging unscathed this fall are slim. In fact, she's been all but set up for failure.

"What is it exactly that the vice president does all day?" Palin offhandedly asked CNBC anchor Larry Kudlow in July. Kudlow explained that the job has become more important in recent years. Palin knows the energy crisis well, even if her claim on "Charlie Rose" that Alaska's untapped resources can significantly ease it is unsupported by the facts. But what does she know about Iranian nukes, health care or the future of entitlement programs? And that's just a few of the 20 or so national issues on which she will be expected to show basic competence. The McCain camp will have to either let her wing it based on a few briefing memos (highly risky) or prevent her from taking questions from reporters (a confession that she's unprepared). Either way, she's going to belly-flop at a time when McCain can least afford it.

Even on energy, Palin has her work cut out for her. First she has to convince McCain to do a 180 and support drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Reserve. Her much-repeated sound bite that ANWR is only the size of the Los Angeles airport and thus not environmentally destructive sounds good, but won't do much to counter the argument Obama made in his acceptance speech, which is that drilling is only a "stopgap" measure for achieving energy independence. Palin will benefit from very low expectations in her debate with Joe Biden, but she's going to have to have a photographic memory for new information to avoid getting creamed...

It's hard to know how many women will flock to the GOP ticket because of Palin. She is a far-right conservative who supported Pat Buchanan over George W. Bush in 2000. She thinks global warming is a hoax and backs the teaching of creationism in public schools. Women are not likely to be impressed by her opposition to abortion even in the case of rape and incest. In 1984, Ronald Reagan carried 56 percent of female voters, despite Ferraro's candidacy on the Democratic side. The balance between work and family, always a ticklish issue, will be brought into bold relief by the fact that the Palins' fifth child, Trig, was born with Down syndrome in April. Todd Palin, a commercial fisherman, may shoulder the bulk of the child-rearing duties in their family. But many voters will nonetheless wonder whether Palin should undertake the rigors of the vice presidency (and perhaps the presidency) while caring for a disabled infant. The subject will no doubt arise on "Oprah" and in other venues.

One way or another, an African-American or a woman will hold high office next year for the first time. That's progress. And it's possible that Palin is so talented that she will prove to be the face of the GOP's future. More likely, this "Hail Sarah" pass won't do much to help John McCain get into the end zone. He'll win or lose for other reasons.

READ THE REST HERE.
 

[Ed: Guess this means that Palin--and McCain--won't playing the "gender card" anytime soon.]

By Karen Breslau 

When Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin arrived backstage for our NEWSWEEK Women & Leadership Event in Los Angeles last March, John McCain had just wrapped up the GOP nomination. Palin had yet to endorse McCain—she liked Mitt Romney—and as we waited in the green room, I urged her to "feel free" to make some news on stage. She grinned broadly—looking back, I guess it was a grin of the Cheshire Cat variety—and thanked me for the offer.

Once onstage, together with Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Palin talked about what women expect from women leaders; how she took charge in Alaska during a political scandal that threatened to unseat the state's entire Republican power structure, and her feelings about Sen. Hillary Clinton. (She said she felt kind of bad she couldn't support a woman, but she didn't like Clinton's "whining.")

I joked with her about being on McCain's short list for vice president, and we had a good chuckle. We also talked about the challenges of running a government while also raising a large and young family. At the time, I didn't know that Palin, clad in a loose, dark dress, was seven months pregnant with her fifth child. An aide called me the next day to tell me that Palin would be announcing the pregnancy at home in Alaska and that she had wanted me to know as a courtesy. She was sorry she hadn't mentioned it the night before.

READ THE REST HERE.
 

1. The West: For a Dem, Obama is unusually strong in the Mountain West, running close to or ahead of McCain in the Red states of Montana, Colorado, Alaska, Nevada and North Dakota. It's obvious that Palin complicates Alaska. But I wonder whether she'll have an impact in the rest of these races. With all that hunting, fishing, snowmobiling and moose eating, she's certainly the most culturally Western of 2008's four ticket-topping candidates, and it'll be interesting to see if she's able to counteract Obama's efforts to expand the map in this crucial region.

2. The Women: One of the most promising lines of attack against McCain--that he chose the "underqualified" Palin solely for the crass political purpose of expanding his share of the women's vote, thereby underscoring how "desperate" the "original maverick" has become--won't really work. Why? Because Palin is actually, you know, a woman. I suspect that most undecided voters will see it as a good thing that America now is poised to make history no matter who wins--regardless of what sort of political calculations went into the pick. Your average voter doesn't dig deep into strategy; they see the broad strokes, the pretty picture. Whether McCain actually wins over more women because of Palin is another story. That he expects Hillary Holdouts to vote for a green governor who disagrees with them on most of the issues after they raised hell about the prospect of Obama putting any woman but Clinton in the White House--even though, say, Kathleen Sebelius shared their stances on everything from abortion to equal pay--strains at the boundaries of reason. But who said any of this was reasonable? And I agree with Marc Ambinder that "undecided women, weakly partisan Democrats, independent suburban women, women between the ages of 30 and 50, will now take a hard second look at John McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin." Not necessarily votes, just second looks. Such are identity politics.

3. The Counterargument: Reader K.S. of Denver presents the strongest possible case against Palin:

The selection criteria for a vice president, by both parties' definition, is the ability to immediately and effectively assume the responsibilities of the presidency. That's a critically important criteria given McCain's age and health. Can you imagine this self-described soccer mom negotiating with Putin or Maliki or whomever is in power in Iran or China or North Korea? Working with NATO?  Serving as commander-in-chief in a time of war? Has she ever met with any of our allies? Has she ever visited a foreign country? Does she have any understanding of economics? Has she even walked down Wall Street? How does being a mayor of a town of 8,000 or so and then serving a 2-year-stint as head of the country's smallest-populated state qualify her for these tasks?

Going forward, the challenge for Democrats is following K.S.'s lead without a) seeming too eager to imply that McCain is on the verge of croaking, which older voters will find offensive or b) reminding swing voters that they're still sort of unsure whether Obama's three-year stint in the Senate and decade or so in Springfield qualify him for those tasks, either. As I wrote earlier, most folks think an underqualified president is worse than an underqualified vice-president, so it's not necessarily a topic that Chicago wants to dwell on. That said, the Biden-Palin debate is going to be must-see TV.

P.S. For a comprehensive Palin profile, I highly recommend the Almanac of American Politics.

 

CHARLOTTE, N.C.--John McCain really, really wants to win. So badly, in fact, that he choose a veep who has the same handicap he's always criticizing Obama for--inexperience. Only worse.

I just landed here in North Carolina after taking a 6:45 a.m. flight out of Denver.  This meant, of course, that I didn't get to experience the revelation of McCain's new running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, in real time. But the awkward timing did afford me an interesting vantage point on the announcement, as all of the Democratic delegates, strategists and various and sundry other politicos on board my Airbus A321 learned the news simultaneously, the moment the plane touched down, from the tiny flickering screens of their trusty CrackBerries.

The best way to describe the reaction aboard U.S. Airways Flight 1520: shock and awe.

I've done eight or nine "Veepwatch" profiles of McCain's possible picks: Romney, Pawlenty, Portman, Ridge et al. I never bothered to include Palin. The main reason: with only a small-town mayoralty and less than two years of governoring under her belt, the Alaskan, I suspected, would have a tough time passing McCain's "is she ready to be president?" test--the candidate's (oft-repeated) top criterion for picking a veep. "I'm aware of the enhanced importance of this issue given my age," McCain told Don Imus in early April, and it was hard to see how asking someone with an even shorter C.V. than Obama to stand a mere (septuagenarian's) heartbeat away from the Oval Office wouldn't hinder the Republicans' ability to attack the Illinois senator for his alleged "inexperience."

But now my gut tells me this won't be a huge problem for Crystal City--even though the Dems will rightly do their darndest make it one. "Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton in an immediate statement (watch for the coming swipes at Palin's ties to Big Oil). The problem, though, is that every time Chicago calls Palin green, it gives McCain yet another opportunity to question Obama's own resume. The pick presents Democrats with a knotty challenge: how do you argue that a fresh, groundbreaking Washington outsider is too inexperienced to be second fiddle while at the same time arguing that Obama--a fresh, groundbreaking Washington outsider himself--is ready to lead the free world?

The truth is, no one votes against a ticket topped by someone as seasoned as McCain solely because the No. 2 isn't an old Washington hand--especially when she's as compelling and complementary a character as Palin, a youngish former beauty-queen and mother of five who hunts, ice fishes, rides snowmobiles, eats moose hamburgers, owns a float plane and has branded herself as a candidate of "reform" and "change." But plenty of folks are willing to reject a No. 1. because of a skimpy resume. In other words, experience is an argument McCain WANTS to have--and Palin, oddly enough, helps him have it. And it's no coincidence that the people Palin was chosen in part to woo--disaffected Hillary Dems--tend to think that Obama is not qualified for the White House. She's a political pick meant for maximum electoral impact. Whether she'd make a good vice president is another story.

As thumbs twiddled over trackballs and Beltway types barked into their phones, I overheard a few telling reactions. "It's very savvy," said a black strategist heading to Washington, D.C. "Biden can't really hit her hard because she's a woman. He risks looking sexist." A stewardess said she was "pissed": "Does he think we're stupid enough to vote for a woman just because she's a woman?" Meanwhile, the man seated next to me, also en route to the capital, read a quote from Karlo Rove about the pick "reshaping both parties' coalitions" and pumped me for more info. A few rows back, a woman called a colleague to ask if Palin is "attractive." "Is she attractive?" she repeated when her interlocutor misheard. "IS SHE ATTRAC... nevermind." But the most revealing response came from a tall gentlemen with reading glasses perched on the end of his nose. "Whooooaaaa," he said into his phone. "Sarah Who?"

By Holly Bailey 

Running Mate: Palin

DAYTON, Ohio--If there’s one thing you can say about John McCain’s campaign today, the senator and his aides certainly know how to keep a secret. With just a few hours to go before McCain hits the stage with his vice presidential running mate, reporters on the ground here in Dayton are still unsure of who the potential veep might be. There’s much buzz about a private flight that landed near here last night. CNN is reporting that a man, woman and two teenagers got off the plane and boarded vans late last night. With Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty not anywhere near Ohio this morning, the buzz suggests McCain may have picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for his ticket. MSNBC reports that information is solid, although campaign aides still aren’t confirming anything officially.

No question, Palin would be a surprise pick. Though she was reportedly one of the first people interviewed by official McCain vetter Arthur Culvahouse last May, Palin has been off largely off the veep radar of late. Many Republicans ruled her out because, at 44, she’s younger than Obama and has only been governor for two years. (Before that, she was a city council member for four years.) Some insiders believed Palin, a relative newcomer, might undermine McCain’s lack of experience argument against Obama. Then there have been personal issues. Palin recently became a mother again. In April, she gave birth to her fifth child, a son diagnosed with Down syndrome. More recently, she has been caught up in a controversy over whether she or her staff tried to get her ex-brother in law fired as an Alaska state trooper. She has denied any wrongdoing, yet it was widely assumed the probe, which is still on-going, may have harmed her chances of being named to the GOP ticket. We’ll know for sure in a few hours.

Yet Palin, in hindsight, looks like an obvious pick for McCain. Not only is she one of the most popular public figures in the country—her approval rating, according to the Anchorage Daily News, tops 80 percent—Palin came to office running a clean government campaign and has fought for ethics reform. Among other things, she supports drilling in Alaska, with limits, she's pro-life and she's a fiscal conservative. And she’s a lady—something that, if she’s the pick, surely figured into the McCain strategy of hoping to woo upset Hillary Clinton supporters. Plus, Palin's an interesting character: a former beauty queen, she was a star high school basketball player (she was known as “Sarah Barracuda” for her intense play). Palin married her childhood sweetheart, a blue collar oil field worker (who is on leave, so as not to create a conflict of interest). She hunts, she fishes, and earlier this year, she posed for Vogue. Could Palin be the one? We’ll know soon enough.

UPDATE 10:35 a.m. ET: A campaign aide says it's Palin. More to come.

By Holly Bailey 

(AP Photo / Mary Altaffer)

Within the hour, John McCain is due at the Phoenix airport, where he will board his campaign plane en route Dayton, Ohio. The big question: When will we know who McCain has picked as his running mate? So far, McCain and the small circle of campaign aides with whom he has been consulting on the decision aren’t talking, not even hinting, at who his No. 2 might be, though it’s presumed whoever he or she is knows by now.

One thing is clear: The campaign is making no effort to stop the intense speculation over when McCain will announce. It has been widely assumed that McCain will appear with his No. 2 at a rally in Dayton Friday morning, although aides have pointedly refused to confirm that. A few days ago, the rumor mill suggested that the senator could push up that announcement to today, in an attempt to steal some of the thunder from Barack Obama’s speech tonight in Denver. Asked about the plans, an aide again said, “No comment.” More recently, speculation has centered on scheduled 6 p.m. rally at a ballpark near Pittsburgh on Saturday night. Reporters traveling with McCain quickly took note of the late starting time, as McCain rarely does night events, especially on the weekend. Of course, the campaign won’t say anything.

A few days ago, a senior McCain aide insisted the campaign looked to Thursday as “Obama’s night”—suggesting, though not outright saying, McCain would not appear with his VP pick today. (Hey, there’s always an airport arrival in Dayton, folks.) But what the campaign has done is partially divert the press’s attention away from a night that should have been ruled by the Democrats. But the McCain campaign may face a little trouble of its own next week, as a tropical storm (and possible hurricane) Gustav bears down on the Gulf Coast, taking aim at New Orleans as early as Monday. Ironically, that’s the night President Bush is scheduled to speak to delegates at the GOP convention in St. Paul. So far, GOP officials are waiting to see what happens with the storm, but a McCain aide, who declined to be named, says the campaign has a “contingency plan” in place and is examining various scenarios including possibly postponing aspects of the convention. “We’re monitoring the situation very closely, and we’ll make plans accordingly,” McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker told NEWSWEEK.

Here's NEWSWEEK's Michael Hirsh on how Joe Biden would compare to George W. Bush's No. 2.

During the hard-fought primaries last spring, Barack Obama swooped in from the campaign trail for a brief stop at the Senate hearings on Iraq. With Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker giving testimony before the Foreign Relations Committee, it was one of those rare moments when the spotlight panned back to Washington. And Obama didn't disappoint. Even with all the distractions of taking on Hillary Clinton, Obama asked one of the most penetrating questions of those two days of hearings: How much of an Iranian and Al Qaeda presence in Iraq would be acceptable before we would leave? Both Petraeus and Crocker seemed caught by surprise by this realpolitik reckoning, and Obama received kudos in the media for his smarts. Even Petraeus acknowledged that Obama was "exactly right" in saying that the most the United States could achieve was not to wipe out Al Qaeda entirely but to leave behind a "manageable situation."

What was not reported at the time was that Obama's line of questioning was suggested to him by Sen. Joe Biden, the Committee chairman who had quietly become one of the Illinois Democrat's main foreign-policy consiglieres after abandoning his own presidential bid. "I discussed with Sen. Obama how to proceed with Petraeus and Crocker," Biden told me in late May. "He asked for my advice."

This week, Obama's choice of Joltin' Joe Biden as his vice-presidential running mate, particularly coming after the tenure of perhaps the most powerful veep in U.S. history, Dick Cheney, raises a few serious questions. First, is Obama really as confident about his commander-in-chief and foreign-policy credentials as he says he is? During his now-infamous remarks to a San Francisco fundraiser last spring, Obama cited his international upbringing and travels and declared that "foreign policy is the area where I am probably most confident that I know more and understand the world better than Senator Clinton or Senator McCain." His pick for veep, Obama added back then, would likely be "somebody who knows about a bunch of stuff that I'm not as expert on." The Biden choice, however, would seem to suggest otherwise—or at least that Obama believes he has a public-perception problem on foreign affairs...

Biden's long record of counseling deep engagement in trouble spots and pushing nuanced, intensive diplomacy—especially talking to enemies—conform in many ways to Obama's world view. In an interview with me in late 2004, Biden sketched out what later became Obama's own position on Iran, saying that Bush should open up direct diplomacy with Tehran "because he has no alternative. The terms [of the talks] should be wide open. This administration spends too much time arguing over the shape of the table. They don't get anything done." He also insisted that Bush open up bilateral talks with North Korea—which the administration later reluctantly did. If Obama and Biden win, it is easy to imagine that they could enjoy something like the one-on-one rapport that George W. Bush is said to have with Cheney.

Despite his reputation for long-windedness, Biden also has a gift for getting to the heart of an issue quickly (recalling Winston Churchill's description of FDR's most trusted aide, Harry Hopkins, as "Lord Root of the Matter.") It was Biden who lectured Rice at her confirmation hearings: "Don't listen to Rumsfeld!" In 2003, when then-Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz indicated that Iraq looked more complicated than Bosnia. "We've been in Bosnia for eight years," Biden snapped back: "That would seem to compute that we're likely to be in Iraq for a long time--a long time." And even though Obama touts his early opposition to the war in Iraq while Biden voted for the Iraq war resolution in 2002—and the two have differed on how fast U.S. troops should withdraw—the Obama camp was very impressed with Biden's handling of the Bush administration's shift in focus to Saddam Hussein. Biden was aggressive in urging that the Democratic caucus "take its time on the Iraq debate, and couldn't just let the president dictate the timing of it," said one Obama advisor. "That whole summer, and in the fall, he said we've got to make sure we kick tires on this. He is a real pro."

Above all, perhaps, it is Biden who has been most vociferous in urging Obama and other Democrats not to repeat the mistakes of John Kerry in 2004—and to fight back against GOP attacks with brickbats and bare knuckles. The failure of Kerry and the Dems of '04 to seize control of the national-security agenda and counterattack Bush was a mistake "that was emblazoned in my mind," Biden says. Now, with John McCain criticizing the 2008 Democratic contender ever more viciously—"Obama: dangerously unprepared to be president," the latest GOP ad intones—Obama needs Biden out in front more than ever. If he gets to the White House, will Obama repay Biden by giving him Cheney-like access and influence? Biden himself would vociferously reject such an idea; he makes no secret of his abhorrence for Cheney and "the neocons." But as a man who's run for president himself twice—and has 35 years in the Senate to Obama's three and a half—it's difficult to imagine Joe Biden is going to be happy reverting back to the traditional veep's role and flying to funerals.

READ THE REST HERE.
 

DENVER--It's not often that the fourth longest-serving member of the U.S. Senate gets to be a rookie again. But that's exactly what happened to Joe Biden today at the Colfax Event Center here in Denver.

After a somewhat shaky debut alongside Barack Obama last Saturday in Springfield, Ill.--during which his fluent assaults on John McCain were followed by marble-mouthed paeans to 'Barack America"--the senior senator from Delaware made his first solo appearance as the Democratic vice-presidential nominee at this morning's roundtable on Economic Security for American Families. The name of the event was telling. Flanked by a quartet of struggling women preselected by the campaign and who's who of leading Obama surrogates--Michelle, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire and others--Biden offered an early taste of what's sure to be his central role on the campaign trail from now until November: using his own trials and tribulations to reach out to working-class voters who are still wary of Obama. "My mom says, you have to walk a mile in someone's shoes to understand them," Biden said. "Now, I haven't walked a mile in the shoes of these incredible women, but I think I understand them."

Today's empathy strategy--which owed more than a little to the example of Bill "I Feel Your Pain" Clinton--represented a sharp break with Biden's previous political persona. Campaigning last fall as a consummate foreign-policy pro, Biden told me that "this election is about 'Who's going to make us the safest?'--and "not about health care." But it should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with Biden's past--or his record, which includes authoring the Violence Against Women Act--that the senator acquitted himself rather well at this morning's event. And the obsessive Obama campaign did more than its part to help. In his introductory remarks--which seemed, in true Biden style, to be entirely improvised--Biden addressed each of the working women individually, linking their stories to his own. Ashley Dart of Michigan is a single mother raising five children after her husband passed away; Biden told her of losing his own wife in a car crash in 1972, and how hard it was to raise his two sons alone. Shandra Jackson of Texas was diagnosed with an arachnoid cyst in her brain, followed by an aneurysm; Biden told her of his own near-fatal aneurysms, and lamented that while "doctors think it's bad publicity if a senator dies on the table," ordinary Americans have to fend for themselves. And Leisha Karl of Colorado recently returned to community college after leaving 15 years ago to raise her son; Biden told her of his wife Jill, who "for 27 years has taught community college, and calls people like you her heroes." To a cynical hack like, well, me, the campaign's aggressive choreography--something tells me that these tidy biographical symmetries weren't coincidental--seemed a little overwrought. But the pain in the room was real, and no one else seemed to mind. "Listen to these women, not me," Biden said at the end of his statement--as if the event hadn't been designed around him. The crowd roared its approval.

Expect Team Obama to keep maximizing Biden's biography and emphasizing his empathy. I've seen Obama participate in several of these stagey roundtables over the past 12 months, and he's nowhere near as convincing as his new partner was today. Restrained by his cooler, academic temperament, Obama tends to nod approvingly while his guests relate their stories, then pose a probing follow-up or pivot to a relevant policy point; he rarely feels the urge to establish an emotional connection by sharing a similar experience of his own. Given that Biden was wrong about this election--it IS about health care, and taxes, and gas prices--his new role as Obama's economic empathizer may turn out to be more important than his attack dogging or his foreign-policy expertise. Of course, it remains to be seen how convincingly Biden can feel voters' pain in a less choreographed setting; empathizing always borders on pandering, especially in the hands of a politician as bombastic and mercurial as Biden. But today, in his first at-bat, the new No. 2 did Bubba proud--even if he was swinging at softballs.
 

DENVER--How does it feel to be a near-veep?

"Surreal."

That's Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine speaking the afternoon to a private panel of NEWSWEEK reporters and editors here at the Warwick Hotel in downtown Denver. Although Kaine refused to get into the details of his discussions with the Obama campaign—it's rumored that he was Obama's top pick until the conflict between Russia and Georgia threatened to highlight Obama's foreign-policy inexperience—he did spend plenty of time talking about how he would've approached the VP gig, had it been offered.

Kaine's first rule of veepdom: don't get personal. "It's easy because the difference in policy are so stark that you don't have to get into personal stuff," he said. "I've been in politics for 15 years now. I'm not naive, and I do think you need to show the sharp disagreements and sharp contrasts in the direction you want to take the nation. But how are you going to go personal against a John McCain? He's a person with faults just like the rest of us..." At this, one editor interrupted to voice the understandable objection: But shouldn't Obama fight fire with fire? He can't let the Paris Hilton stuff go unanswered. Kaine nodded. "I can only speak from my experience in Virginia, but what I would always try to do is respond with force, and to let people know there's a cost to being negative," he said. "But then the last 30 seconds of my ad would always be about a positive." So do you think the "seven houses" onslaught against McCain—a burst of unprompted negative messaging, after all—is an uncalled for personal attack? "Not at all," Kaine said, somewhat contradictorily. "It's very relevant, especially when McCain is trying to paint Obama as an elitist. I mean, Senator Obama was on food stamps while he was growing up. McCain not being able to remember how many houses he has is a great reminder to Americans that if we're trying to find out who understand people trying to make tough decisions every day, that Obama has lived it. He understands it." Still, it seems unlikely Kaine would've burst out of the gate with the same ferocity as Joe Biden--who, according to Kaine, "combines head and heart in ways that will be very useful to Senator Obama." Like Obama, Kaine is a somewhat reluctant attack dog. He may have been too much of the same--too much head.

Kaine's second lesson for the VP: come to Virginia. "It's not a blue state, but it's no longer a red state," Kaine said. "Today, it's pretty much an evenly-matched state." When Kaine's father-in-law was elected Virginia governor in 1969, the commonwealth, according to Kaine, was "40 percent rural, 25 percent urban and 35 percent suburban." Today it's 20 percent rural, 15 percent urban and 65 percent suburban. Kaine won in 2005 by capturing fast-growing, formerly Republican counties like Louden and Prince William—places where his predecessor, Mark Warner, lost in 2000. The reason for the reversal? "The demographics just changed so much," Kaine says. As a result, Kaine realized that "we've got to make our case to these suburban voters"--and, according to him, if Obama and Biden can "hold the margins down or even win" in "most of these eight or nine counties," then they can swing the Old Dominion. What's more, there may even be some votes to be had in the rural southwestern part of the state, according to Kaine--especially with a plainspoken Joe like Biden on the ticket.  "These rural voters are cynical," says Kaine. "They think that politicians just come around at election time but don't know much about them, and they won't come back. But a little effort can go long way. Reach out and these people open up to you. Biden can help Obama puncture that cynicism."

Here's NEWSWEEK's Richard Wolffe reporting from Springfield, Ill. on the new Obama-Biden ticket: 

When Barack Obama announced his presidential campaign in Springfield, Ill., on a frigid winter's day 19 months ago, he admitted that he was short on Washington experience. "I know I haven't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington," he said. "But I've been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change."

On Saturday he returned to the same spot in front of the old statehouse—this time in a cauldron of a summer afternoon—to announce a vice-presidential pick who has spent half a life immersed in the ways of Washington.

To Obama's aides, Joe Biden's selection as the veep candidate represents less of a turnaround than a complement to the candidate—both in the presidential election and beyond. "One of things we know is that you've got to have people who can bring about change," said one senior Obama aide. "Unfortunately change is going to have to go through Capitol Hill, and you've got to have somebody who is knowledgeable about Capitol Hill. The difference between John McCain and Joe Biden is that one is on the side of change, and one isn't."

Obama's inner circle started the VP process convinced that they would be looking for someone who would reinforce the candidate's brand, underscoring the theme of change and post-partisan politics. Instead, they ended up with someone who seemingly fills the gaps in the candidate's skill set.

The shortlist, according to senior aides, narrowed down rapidly, several weeks ago to a half-dozen names. Contrary to several reports, Obama did not make his final decision while on vacation in Hawaii, but was still considering his options earlier this week. And contrary to much of the post-game analysis, the conflict between Russia and Georgia played no role in Obama's decision, his staff said.

It wasn't until Thursday, as he traveled through Virginia on a bus tour, that Obama called Evan Bayh, the Indiana senator, and Tim Kaine, the Virginia governor, to tell them he had gone in another direction. Several other unnamed candidates learned the news at the same time, when Biden too learned of his new role. When Obama called Biden, his veep pick was at the dentist with his wife who was having root canal work. Obama's aides say they were impressed that loquacious Biden kept the news secret for more than 24 hours.

In public, Obama's aides argue there are two main factors that make Biden attractive: his foreign policy experience, and his image as a humble family man from Wilmington, Del. While Biden has decades of experience on Capitol Hill, he commutes to Wilmington each day, and has maintained what sounds like an unscripted voice.

But in private, they point to a much more immediate and strategic reason for his elevation to veep nominee: his killer instincts as a campaigner and his cultural reach.

Obama's aides admire Biden's skills as a debater and chief surrogate who can fillet the Republican ticket in speeches and media interviews. For all his problems as a verbose questioner in the Senate, he proved he could turn a one-liner and land a zinger better than almost anyone campaigning for president this year. Biden's abilities to play the role of attack dog was a winning argument for his selection, allowing Obama himself to remain above the fray.

"He'll have a fist in the face of John McCain every day and I think he has this level of gravitas as well," said one senior adviser to Obama. "We're lucky to have both. It showcases Obama's judgment that he chose somebody like this—a good pick not just for August or October, but a good pick in the event that something happens when he's president of the United States."

Team Obama also points to Biden's demographic and geographic reach. As a Roman Catholic who was born in Scranton, Pa., Biden can campaign effectively in the Rust Belt states that proved so immune to Obama's charms during the primary contests against Hillary Clinton. "He's ready to get out," said another senior aide, who added that Biden will travel extensively across the country. "He really wants to do this."

The Obama campaign believes the recent tightening of the polls is the result of one main factor: Republicans coming back into the fold for McCain. Their goal with Biden is to bring home the Democratic holdouts—especially the ones who voted for Clinton in the primaries. Those voters want more than reassurance about Obama's foreign policy credentials, in the campaign's assessment. They want someone who looks and sounds more like them and can connect with them on their own terms about the economy. On that basis, the campaign points to Biden's record of working to put 100,000 new cops on the streets, to his ability to talk freely and easily in union halls, and to his limitless supply of stories about his humble Irish-American roots...

Locked in a tight election, Obama needs a fighter who can campaign in the bars and VFW halls that still seem foreign to him. Someone who can end his speech saying this: "I'm here for the cops and the firefighters, the teachers and the line workers, the folks who live—the folks whose lives are the measure of whether the American dream endures." In that sense, Biden is the change the Obama campaign has been searching for.

READ THE REST HERE. 
 

Want to know how the Obama campaign is countering Biden's 'Creature of Washington' image? One word (or, you know, talking point): Amtrak.

Linda Douglass, Obama campaign traveling spokesperson, to MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski, on a "Morning Joe" special edition: “He has decades of experience in Washington and, yet, uniquely, he is not of Washington -- he goes home to his family in Delaware every single night."
 
Robert Gibbs, Obama campaign Senior Strategist for Communications and Message, to ABC’s Kate Snow, on "Good Morning America Weekend": “We have somebody who hasn't forgotten where he comes from and goes home to Delaware every night on the train."

Barack Obama, Democratic presidential nominee, in Springfield, Ill.: "For decades, he has brought change to Washington, but Washington hasn’t changed him... He never moved to Washington. Instead, night after night, week after week, year after year, he returned home to Wilmington on a lonely Amtrak train when his Senate business was done."

No word yet on whether Chicago plans to outfit Biden in one of these:

UPDATE, 3:59 p.m.: Also worth noting, in terms of messaging, is the number of times Obama mentioned Biden's hometown of Scranton (which is located in must-win Pennsylvania): three. The number of times he mentioned the safer state of Delaware? Once. "Pennsylvania's Third Senator"--Team Obama's words, not mine--indeed.

And as for Biden calling Obama "Barack America"?  As Bidenisms go, it was surprisingly on message.
 

Here's Biden making the case for himself--in response to a reader's question--during a lunch with NEWSWEEK editors (Stumper included) on Nov. 7: 

I am a pretty good street politician. You know what I mean? I'm a fingertip politician. And I'm telling you, I guarantee you, that the public out there--to use an expression one of you probably came up with--is looking out the window instead of looking in the mirror. They know that what's going on "out there" has significant impact on them. They don't know what it means, but they're looking for somebody who they think has, for lack of a better phrase, the breadth and depth of experience, someone who they can trust to lead them through what they know is going to be a pretty confusing decade. I'm drawing now--as even the Times acknowledged--I'm drawing big crowds now, the last three, four weeks. And they're all about Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, terror, the world, immigration. This idea that health care is the top thing? Come with me to any of these events. It's the fourth or fifth question asked.

Folks, they get it. They want to figure out how we're going to get this thing back in the box. How we're going to tie up all these loose ends.  The way out is me.

It's not that I am this tough guy. It gets down to voters determining your substance and your resolve. Are you going to protect us? This election is about "Who's going to make us the safest?" It's not about global warming, it's not about health care. You can't cross that threshold, you're not going to make it as a Democrat.

I imagine Biden will be singing a slightly different tune this afternoon in Springfield--no more "It's not about global warming, it's not about health care." But the importance of the question "Who's going to make us the safest?" is the underlying reason why Obama--a candidate who still needs to "cross that threshold...to make it as a Democrat"--chose Biden as his running mate. As someone who has crossed that threshold, Biden now has to convince voters that Obama, not McCain, is going to "make us the safest."

Like the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder, I disagree with Ron Fournier that Obama's pick "shows a lack of confidence."  As Ambinder notes, "maybe the pick demonstrates Obama's confidence and a tempering of his overconfidence. Confidence, because Biden could upstage him, will be independent, and will be better at certain things than Obama... If Obama were overconfident, if he believed that his personality and story alone were enough, then he'd have chosen someone less threatening." 

Listen for the new script in Springfield. It'll be interesting to watch Biden--not the most egoless of pols--transition from "the way out is me" to "the way out is Obama."
 

For those of you who can't get enough Biden today, here's my dispatch from New Year's Eve 2007 in Newton, Iowa, where the Delaware senator was holding one of his final campaign events before finishing a distant fifth in the state's Jan. 3 caucuses and ending his presidential bid. Some things will change now that Biden  has joined Team Obama--and some things won't.

NEWTON, Iowa (Dec. 31, 2007)--Today I drove from a Barack Obama event in Jefferson to a Joe Biden event in Newton. The distance, in geographical terms, was about 100 miles. It felt like light years. As always, the Obama event was clockwork--a hulking black press bus; a filing room with plentiful powerstrips and wireless internet; volunteers asking for contact info at every corner; massive, well-designed banners; a stage filled with seated supporters.

The Biden event seemed "smaller"--even though it drew roughly the same number of people. The posters were droopy. The room--Newton's Community Center--wasn't particularly pimped out. But Biden's family--a son, a daughter, a brother and others--stood, arms crossed, on the periphery, whispering and smiling, and the candidate paced up and down the rows. No stage. No podium. No TV crews. When I entered a few minutes late (as usual), a staffer approached, asked my name, shook my hand and helped me locate an outlet for my laptop. He was surprised--pleasantly--to hear the name Newsweek. "We're not the Obama campaign," he said, unprompted. "No bus. No wireless. Sorry." He flashed a sheepish smile. "No problem," I said. I actually meant it.

People opposed to Obama often say that he's short on substance. That's probably a little unfair--like all the other Democrats, his policy proposals are pretty specific. But his public persona is premised on stuff that's "above" substance--hope, audacity, change, et cetera. Biden is the exact opposite. Sure, he can get airy, especially when quoting his "favorite contemporary poet," Seamus Heany, on making "hope and history rhyme." But he comes alive, shifting from solemnity to bombast, when answering a question on, say, Pakistan. "I'm the only person running in either party, Democrat or Republican, who three months ago put out a plan for Pakistan," he begins, and twelve minutes later--after discussing the country's religious demographics and reminiscing about that time Benazir Bhutto worked out of his Washington office, among (many) other things--he still hasn't stopped. Biden can be boring, immodest (today he seemed to take credit for convincing Bill Clinton to intervene in Kosovo) and condescending. Watch out when he starts a sentence with "Ladies and gentlemen," which he does about once a minute; he'll follow it up with something like "By the way, we're talking about the Sudan. That’s where Darfur is. [Bashir] is in the capital of the Sudan, which is a distance from Darfur. Darfur is an area about the size of France. And there is carnage going on."

Obama doesn't bore, condescend or brag. Neither do Clinton or Edwards. They're well-oiled machines at this point--delivery mechanisms for the "winning" messages their handlers have devised. And that's okay. It's the way you win. But because Biden has no shot--he currently polls at five percent, trails everyone in fundraising and has said he'll drop out if he finishes fourth or worse in Iowa--he doesn't have to deliver a winning message. He isn't handled. He can't afford handlers. Seeing him in person, the overwhelming impression you get is of a guy talking about what matters to him, for better or worse.

READ THE REST HERE.