What's Next: John McCain

re: What's Next: John McCain

brianseel — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 17:32:04 GMT

Kudos for giving the only honest analysis of the GOP race I have seen thus far today. The fact is, the liberal media (and sadly some conservatives in the media) is more out of touch than they have ever been and are scared to death of the idea of a Huckabee Presidency (i.e. Baptist Minister).

But the fact is, if you look at the polls, McCain is not "next", he is not going to suddenly become the darling of the GOP establishment, no matter how hard the liberal media tries to sell that story.

Romney's support was always soft, because they were for the package, not the man. In today's nationwide Gallup poll, his support is down to 9%. Hardly front runner or even stumbled front runner status.

Huckabee is actually in a better position than Obama to secure his party's nomination, yet Obama is treated as the second coming by the media and Huckabee is considered some sort of brief distraction. But the same Gallup poll finds more Republicans convinced Huckabee will win their party's nominaton than Democrats are convinced Obama wins theirs. He still has to overcome these mysterious "superdelegates" and other attempts by the Clinton machine to rig the system.

Meanwhile, Huckabee can win Michigan, he will win South Carolina, finishing off McCain, and he is leading in Florida. Yes, he has caused a bit of a rift in the GOP as too many $100K+ Republicans have traded their values for promises of more tax cuts.

But the fact remains, he is tapping into something as powerful as what Obama is. For the past 40 years, there has been an assault on God and religion in this country to the point that someone who simply attends a church service weekly is categorized as "some sort of Jesus freak". This is completely out of step with the history of our country and is spurring a silent backlash among voters (much broader than the simple "evangelical" designation).

You combine that with a campaign that has no real GOP establishment candidate for the first time since 1980 (Reagan-Huckabee comparisons are not as off base as some would like to think) and a growing sophistication among voters to recognize, as President Bush pointed out at the end of last year, the agenda of a Presidency may largely be dictated by external events, not a candidate's agenda, and people are taking a hard look at who a candidate really is.

Huckabee is the real deal.

re: What's Next: John McCain

PeterSedesse — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 18:35:10 GMT

Good analysis Brian,

I agree completely. Tonight will be the death of two candidates if McCain wins by more then 3-4pts. McCain will replace Guiliani as the 'defense' candidate and will knock Romney out of the race (he'll stick around for Michigan and SC, but won't be viable)

Romneys loss will mean Huckabee will win big in both Michigan and SC. McCain doesn't have strong support in either state. Florida will be the real battleground between McCain and Huckabee. Huckabee is currently winning there, but if McCain gets most of Rudy's support, it will be close. If Rudy is still seen as at all viable, then Florida will go to Huckabee.

The funniest part of this will be when Romney tries to support another candidate. Would anyone but Thomspon even want to be associated with him? The second funniest thing will be to see who Fox News and Rush support when it's only Huckabee and McCain left.

re: What's Next: John McCain

barblze — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 19:43:28 GMT

ANYBODY BUT MCCAIN!! tHIS COUNTRY HAS HAD ENOUGH OF GEORGE BUSH! WE DO NOT WANT MORE BUSH IN THE FORM OF MCCAIN.

re: What's Next: John McCain

BinxBollings — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 19:47:32 GMT

I don't see this race being settled at all until Super Tuesday. Only Thompson, whose campaign has completely fizzled and who appears to have little interest in the race, has any incentive to drop out.

The five remaining candidates all have strong bases/positives:

- Romney - a virtually unlimited campaign war chest necessary to buy ground support and media

- Giuliani - the 201 winner-take-all delgates in NY, CT, NJ and DE - Giuliani's back yard

- Huckabee - the conservative grassroots favorite

- McCain - high name ID, high positives across the country

- Paul - the netroots favorite whose supporters are largely new to the process

With all of them scrambling with relatively little money, little establishment enthusiasm and fighting the Obama-Clinton attention to get votes across 21 states, the race could come down to the gamesmanship of who can engineer the best matchups in the most states and gain the most delegates in each of the states (abandoning some winner-take-all states in favor of proportional ones, etc.).

Huckabee seems to be in the best position, but even if he carries MI, SC and FL (especially with MI and FL cut in half by the party), I can't see Huck doing well in MN, NY, CA, NJ or IL, and that's over 430 delegates

If Huckabee can't capitalize on the momentum of winning these early states, each of the other candidates has multiple negatives and none has managed to capture the GOP electorate like Obama has the Dems. So, unless the "party establishment" (whoever they are) endow either McCain or Giuliani with a fortune out of fear that Huckabee or Paul could be the nominee--and McCain or Giuliani use the funds to pound out a clear Super Tuesday win, something Milquetoast Mitt can't seem to do, despite his funds--it will be a giant scrum until Feb 5, no matter who wins these early states.

I certainly hope McCain is able to come out strong of a win today. I think he is the party's best candidate and best hope to win in November. But it will be a hard fight no matter what happens.

re: What's Next: John McCain

Omega0401 — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:11:02 GMT

I hope McCain doesn't succeed. I just don't like his answers on Illegal immigration. Why should the illegals pay a fine and be allowed to become citizens? It's like buying your way into this country (after breaking the law) and becoming a citizen. And it still means that they cut in front of the line. Even more people will start doing crossing the border.

6 and a half years after 9/11 and we're still talking about the border. Are we waiting for another 9/11 before we do something? McCain and his friends haven't done anything about the border. He's part of Washington and Washington is the problem. I'm totally discussed with their inaction.

re: What's Next: John McCain

brianseel — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:14:24 GMT

I think if you check the state by state polls, most of which are even still pre-Iowa, you'll find that Huckabee's national numbers are truly that, national numbers. Don't buy into the media sales pitch that this guy is just a fly in the ointment.

re: What's Next: John McCain

rickskm — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:16:57 GMT

The little hairs on the back of my neck jump to attention whenever I hear someone compare any of today's candidates to President Reagan. If ever the phrase "They don't make 'em like they used to" rang true, it is today.

I would agree that there has been an assault on God and religion in this country for many decades. However, I believe that it is a two-pronged assault by two very diverse forces. One is by those who would remove God from every facet of public and personal life. The second is by those so-called "Christians" who proclaim that everyone who believes contrary to themselves are heathens, heretics, cultists, etc.

I have been receiving firsthand reports from friends in Iowa of the persecution Romney supporters faced at caucus meetings. The story has repeated itself over and over:

Huckabee Supporter (Seeing a Romney shirt, button, etc. and assuming that apparently only a Mormon could support Romney): "Are you a Mormon or a Christian?"

Romney Supporter (in this particular case, a Mormon): "I'm both."

Huckabee Supporter (now standing and pointing a nasty finger a few inches from Romney supporter's eye): "You are no Christian! You and Romney are going to hell!!!"

There generally followed a great deal more yelling from the Huckabee supporter, but you get the gist of it. I envision it being like a Hasidic Jew going to vote in Tehran, minus the loss of life and limb. You can't tell me that this is what our Founding Fathers (the deeply spiritual and the passionately agnostic alike) would have wanted for modern day America. And as a devout Reagan Republican, I certainly know it isn't what he would have wanted.

I've been a registered, dedicated, at times almost radically conservative Republican for all my life. I am anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, build-a-fence-and-kick-the-illegals-out, and very fiscally conservative. But if Mike Huckabee (yet another musician, so-called "man of the people," former Arkansas governor) is the choice of the new Rebublican party, it is no longer the party of Ronald Reagan, and is no longer the party for me.

It would be easy to assume that I was Romney all the way. But for the record, I was undecided until Iowa.

re: What's Next: John McCain

mark7779 — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:36:30 GMT

PeterSedesse,

What is wrong with Romney that no other candidate would want to support him? He actually has some accomplishments under his belt that are tangible. He has actually been shown to be compentent at re-oraganizing broken systems. Something our current administration has failed to do, and in fact has created more.

Huckabee is bought and paid for. If you want Bush v2, vote Huckabee. Don't shoe in a President because of his religious base. Lots of religions seem moral and holy on the outside but are just as corrupt on the inside, and don't gaurentee a competent President. Check Huckabee's past actions and see for yourself.

Clinton - bought and paid for. Obama is more sincere than Clinton. Vote Clinton if you like the status quo. Obama would be a better choice for Dems, but be prepared for his inexperience. He will have to rely on others advice for many policys.

McCain - Good middle-base candidate. If your looking for someone who doesn't banter to special interests, he will stand by what he believes. Not as much as Mitt, but a good bi-partisan middle ground.

re: What's Next: John McCain

John Loves Peace — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:04:38 GMT

The postings I've read so far are saying that the Huckster and Great Grandpa McCain are the only two viable GOP candidates. Hey brianseel..."Huckabee is actually in a better position than Obama to secure his party's nomination, yet Obama is treated as the second coming by the media and Huckabee is considered some sort of brief distraction"? Buddy are you on drugs? The polls (not just the isolated one you cited) clearly show the Republican ticket is a splintered mess. Obama is gathering more and more support daily on the Donkey side. Other polls show that Independent voters are starting to jump on the Obama band-wagon too. Moderates of any ilk WILL NOT mark their ballots for Huck...NO WAY. Romney is the only legit elephant candidate that has any shot at beating Obama! I just don't see the Repubs winning in November...in the race for the White House or In Congress. Dubya has completely destroyed any chance of that happening with his moronic bumbling. Go Crats!

re: What's Next: John McCain

JLH in Tacoma — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 05:06:47 GMT

Nobody has won the race yet and their are 48 more states to go. It is just too soon to say who is going to win the nomination and then become the president. One thing for sure it will be a real surprise. Too many armchair politicians ideas floating around for me.