Loose Threads, Part I: Obama's Growing Christian-Hunter-Soldier-Fat Cat Coalition?

re: Loose Threads

Politicswithagrin — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 15:44:04 GMT

I think it is interesting that at a time when more conservative Christians are heading to Obama, McCain announces that he may choose a pro-choice VP. His pro-life stance was probably one of the main things that would have attracted that group.

http://www.politicswithagrin.blogspot.com/

re: Loose Threads, Part I: Obama's Growing Christian-Hunter-Soldier-Fat Cat Coalition?

not.Brit — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 16:41:01 GMT

What none of the polls show is who will actually come to vote on election day. "Likely voter" models are a little bit ridiculous this year, and not just because Obama is attracting younger voters. Polls simply can't measure passion, only preference, which is why pollsters have to completely guess who will come out on election day.

But two things are clear: First; Youth, blacks, and Democrats in general (despite a small, but vocal Hillary backlash) are absolutely thrilled. They have a candidate who is not only inspiring and enthusiastic, but who can literally make history by winning. Second; Evangelicals, social conservatives, and Republicans in general are tepid at best. Evangelicals especially, who have been a bight Red election day guarantee for 15 years, are not quiet about the fact that if they vote at all, they'll hold their nose and cross their fingers while they do it. McCain simply does not and cannot inspire them (which is the primary reason McCain is running a negative "vote against Obama" campaign).

Politicswithagrin is right (though I don't appreciate the blog spam), Evangelicals are weary enough of McCain (having made him their enemy years ago), if he chooses a pro-choice VP, then their support (and a huge number of their votea) will evaporate.

Taking it a step further, one of the reasons the Evangelical vote was so certain for so long is because entire churches would vote as a block. It was a pre-built grassroots organization. Often, a pastor will distribute a voting guide (the 700 Club and others produce these for every election) and locals will shuttle people to polling places (which may actually be their own church).

Of all the decisions the Obama campaign has made, creating a vast volunteer army in literally every state is by far the best. Obama has created an organization that can rival (and this year may surpass) local churches. Hundreds of thousands of volunteers will devote November 4th to nothing else but getting people to vote. The Obama campaign will attempt to reach every single donor (now over 2 million). They will release a YouTube reminder video. They will send a notification to every friend on Facebook and MySpace. There will be voting/results parties. Volunteers all over the country will vote early and spend the rest of their day in their car shuttling voters. And that VP text message you sign up for? Well, you'll also get a text message reminding you to vote.

The "Obamacan" may be a barely verifiable creature, but you better believe that if there is even one in a church, one in a platoon, or one at the gun show, it throws a wrench into a system that is McCain's only hope.

re: Loose Threads, Part I: Obama's Growing Christian-Hunter-Soldier-Fat Cat Coalition?

zbbrox — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:20:26 GMT

I think your analysis of the Obamacan idea is missing a step. You look at Obama's support among Republicans, and find it tepid. However, you correctly realize there are fewer Republicans these days--perhaps many Republicans supporting Obama now style themselves Independents? So you then look at Obama's support among Independents, and find Obama with only a slight edge. Fair enough. But there is another logical step: There's also the increased number of Democrats. We haven't seen a swell in Independent party identification in the last four years, we've seen both a fall in Republicans and a rise in Democrats, leaving the number of Independents unchanged, or even slightly lower.

Many people who were formally calling themselves Independents, but voting Democrat, are now calling themselves Democrats. That means that Obama's slight lead among Independents has to be coming to one degree or another from former Republicans now calling themselves Independents.