Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

not.Brit — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:53:13 GMT

Here's what I've been predicting: Obama is employing a rope-a-dope strategy, and brilliantly. This week, everyone is aflutter because he's down in the polls and not hitting back hard enough. McCain appears able to hit Obama again and again and again without any sustained blow-back. While McCain's numbers aren't rising (he's been stuck below 44% for 3 months now), Obama's numbers have "tanked" from 51 to 47. Everyone from every corner is, for lack of a more artful way to put it, freaking out.

Everyone, that is, except the Obama team. In fact, they appear completely unfazed. The ship is still tight, the message is still clear, and the candidate is still smiling. McCain is literally wearing himself out (they have him on Ambien). His team is all fighting the same fight (brownie points for message control), but they are having to update their talking points literally every day. Today the buzzword is "testy." Yesterday it was "pro-life." Last week it was "celebrity." Tomorrow it will be, I don't know, how about "erudite."

Through all of this, McCain has built himself a treasure trove of blunders. More than a month ago, Max Bergmann wrote the article, "The Week That Should Have Ended McCain's Presidential Hopes." That week (which included Gramm's "whiny" comment and the Iraqis calling for timetables) is tame compared to broken mess that we've seen recently. You know it's bad when Paris Hilton calls you out and you run a political attack ad after Olympic history (how uncomfortable was that?).

And now we're seeing the first steps into what will become a political carpet bombing. Attack ads from Obama in small markets, below the radar. Tough talk at the VFW. Brilliantly dismissive comments like "is that the best you've got?" And a nice, slow VP roll-out, which is keeping the 24-hour talking heads, well, talking (a priceless commodity in the political economy). By the time the Republican Convention is through (when the real race starts, let's be honest), Obama's base will be begging him to go on the attack. McCain's early attacks have made him look like the worst kind of Washington politician. When Obama goes on the attack, it will be met with a giant sigh of relief. Even (and perhaps especially) by those talking heads who seem to think that Obama is weak.

And Obama gets to start all of this after a 3 week world tour, a week vacation, a media break thanks to the Olympics, and the Democratic National Committee presentation in front of 70,000 adoring fans on the anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I Have A Dream" speech. The last 60 days of this campaign will make The Rumble in the Jungle look like Foreman's best performance. And just like Ali, Obama will be bouncing and smiling when the ref calls it.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

Caleb Murdock — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 01:14:06 GMT

I don't know why it's a big deal that Obama has come out with negative commercials -- I mean, look at the smear campaign that he's facing. His promise of a new kind of politics is about the kind of president he would be. But if he's up against an unprincipled bunch of liars, he has to hit back hard if he is going to win. The fact that he has come out with negative ads is not newsworthy (although if some of them are inaccurate, that certainly is).

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

C. MacLean — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 01:48:31 GMT

It's all about timing. Obama's just getting started - John McCain and the republicans won't know what hit them.

On to Denver.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

nofreelunch — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:45:41 GMT

Rope-a-dope, all about timing, smear campaign are excuses to explain why Obama is currently not doing as well as expected. Reality: This deal is done. McCain could stop advertising right now and nothing would change. Obama & most of the democratic party elites are perceived to be at the extreme left edge of the political spectrum by both conservatives and Hillary democracts. McCain is perceived by liberals to be conservative, and by conservatives to be liberal, which places him near the center. Moderate democrats, the majority of independents, and the entire right side of the political spectrum are all voting for McCain. Who's to blame? The democrats for nominating canidates without substance, who are too far left of center. All the advertising in the world, won't change it. The electorate sees it, it's over. McCain wins big.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

timrogers — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:47:52 GMT

Liars and cheaters win. That is everything anyone needs to know about politics, campaigns or candidates.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

nofreelunch — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 04:13:50 GMT

Liars and cheaters win. That is everything anyone needs to know about politics, campaigns or candidates. BS, Who wins is the person, perceived by the majority of the electorate, as having similar views on important issues. That's why an extreme leftist, who is out of the mainstream can't possibly win. America has never elected anyone from the extreme right or the extreme left, and it's sure not happening this time.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

not.Brit — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 04:42:13 GMT

@ nofreelunch

I'm sure you're right about elections being decided by polls in August. Just ask President Kerry.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

Rome0608 — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 04:56:18 GMT

Hopefully, this timearound my faith in the American people won't let liars and cheaters win. McCain stands for nothing. He has no idea what is his platform he has been busy attacking Obama. I won't vote for someone that runs on vietnam, Bush's policies and attacking his opponet without clearly proposing what his views are and political platform is.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

Rome0608 — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 05:03:52 GMT

Last time i checked Kerry was up in the in august and look where those polls took him. Meaning, McCain glory days are counted. He is finished. He has no interest in our economy, no clear agenda to put our people back to work, no plans of relieving the health crisis, and the American people is worn out!!. Karl Rove can jump, create, cheat, lie, diceit and pretend he is fooling us, not this time. This time We are paying attention. I am white-italian-american- male, and i don't care if Obama is black, blue, purple or an elephant, I am not voting for republicans.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

Mr.tutto — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 05:29:41 GMT

Where was FACTCHECK when McCain ran the Britney, Hilton Ads. I heard McCain making those statements about the economy and then later tried to add the fact that now we are having a hard time... His campaign guys must have told him what to say. Since John McCain always hides behind his Jokes, he's always throwing up trial balloons and if something doesn't work... well it was a Joke.

Where was FACTCHECK when Obama's words were totally taken out of context with the "bitter comments" Is FACTCHECK a division of FOX News ? What is the ROVE ROBOT going to say next ?

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

alexblack — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 07:00:30 GMT

You knew it was coming. Even Obama knows his resume is far too thin for the job he seeks, and it's far above his "pay grade". So he gives the green light for his minions slash away with knives under the table, while he floats above it, angelic-like, with a big, innocent smile.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

geniepiper — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 07:25:06 GMT

Let's admit it, negative ads work. McCain has went negative, forcing Obama to do the same if he has any chance of winning.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

nofreelunch — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 12:21:53 GMT

Look, This election campaign has been going on for almost two years. You can hide who you really are for a while, but not for two years. Only 10-12% of voters say they are undecided. Every day more of them see Obama for what he is, a candidate from the extreme left of the democractic party. That's why Obama is slipping in the polls. No candidate from the extreme left or right can possibly win. Only someone near the center. It has nothing to do with race or gender, and all the advertising in the world, won't change it. The electorate sees it, it's over. McCain wins big.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

SYWanda — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:15:58 GMT

The idea that anyone could possibly consider McCain to be 1) a Washington outsider and 2)political center of this country is absolutely insane and indicative to how low the educational level of this country has dropped.

A political moderate is someone who occasionally leans left or right and generally travels in the middle most of the time. Over the last twenty years, it is the Democratic Party that has moved to the right, because the right has moved to the EXTREME RIGHT, practically a theocracy if they had their way in the Christian Conservative circle.

Screw the polls. They are like the weather reports....and they are a waste of my life energy to pay them any mind. Negative ads? I don't have a problem hitting McCain in the face or below the belt....because I'm sick to my stomach of all the crap the GOP has disseminated over the years. Its like being the kid the bully picks on.....that bully will keep coming until you knock his *** down. Thats human nature and unfortunately, thats what our politics has become,.

I wouldn't vote for McCain if he were the only man running. He's more of the same of Bush and its practically screaming from him if all of you deaf people could only hear. I know whats worth fighting against in my life---and the GOP is it.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

nofreelunch — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:42:30 GMT

SYWanda, you are no where close to objective reality. Screwing the polls does not make the reality disappear. You are lost. Good luck.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

not.Brit — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 16:44:06 GMT

@ nofreelunch

"No candidate from the extreme left or right can possibly win."

Really? Bill Clinton didn't win a second term? George W. Bush is a moderate? Nixon? Roosevelt?

Your understanding of presidential politics is pretty limited. In fact, "moderates" are typically weeded out during the party primaries. Reagan won because he was the conservative favorite, not because he was centrist. Carter won because he presented such a strong contrast to the corrupt Nixon administration. Franklin Roosevelt spent nearly 16 years pushing the country to the left with policies like The New Deal, Social Security, and a national minimum wage, but he kept winning in landslides.

Besides, ignoring your personal distaste, Obama simply isn't from the "extreme left of the Democratic party." His stance on abortion is the majority opinion in America. As is his stance on the War in Iraq. And stem cell research. And the environment. And torture. And government corruption. But many of his decisions infuriate the extreme left (including his vote for FISA, his opinion of General Petraeus, and his stance on faith-based initiatives). He is a progressive Democrat and obviously left-leaning (which is why he won the primary), but "extreme" is extreme.

I'm also wondering... if you were correct and "centrists" won elections, then why is McCain pushing so hard to the right? Just asking.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

nofreelunch — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:20:09 GMT

@not .Brit

Fact: Obama has the most liberal voting record in the US Senate. Fact: Obama was tutored in his teenage years in Hawaii by Frank Marshall Davis, a self styled communist. Fact: Obama has associated with William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, who called themselves, "communist with a small c", since 1988. It was Tom Ayers, Williams father and former CEO of Commonwealth Edison, who got Obama his internship with the Sidley & Austin law firm where he met Michelle, his wife to be. Fact: Obama associated for the last 20 years with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who preaches a form of racism called "black liberation theology" Do I need to mention Frank Rezko? Fact: This February, Obama sponsored the "Global Poverty Act. If enacted would force U.S. taxpayers to fork over as much as 0.7 percent of the nation's Gross Domestic Product -- or $845,000,000,000.00 -- on welfare to third-world countries through the UN. An extremist idea, if there ever was one.

How do you know what Obama's stance is? Wait until tomorrow, and it will change. Today, I'm for gun control, tomorrow, not so much. Today, I'm against govt. easedropping, tomorrow, I'm voting for FISA. Today, I'm accepting public financing for the general election, tomorrow I'm rejecting it.

Today, I'm against the death penalty, tomorrow child rapist should die. Today, I'm going to withdraw the troops from Iraq immediately, tomorrow, I'm going to withdraw over the next 16 months or so.

Obama won the primary because he is black. In the world of liberal politics race trumps gender. A white guy with Obama's credentials wouldn't get to first base.

So I repeat, Who wins is the person, perceived by the majority of the electorate, as having similar views on important issues. That's why an extreme leftist, who is out of the mainstream can't possibly win. November 4th will decide who's right. My prediction: McCain 348 electoral votes, Obama 190. We'll see then whose understanding of presidential politics is limited.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

Ezana — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 00:46:15 GMT

Fact: the study that says he is the most liberal is flawed and only uses one set of criteria here is a better one. In reality even Biden is more liberal (so is Dodd). Obama is closer to the 21st most liberal andhttp://voteview.com/sen109.htm

Fact: Obama went to a private school served on one neighborhood committee with Ayers and hardly knows him.

Fact: you know nothing about the Global poverty act. How much of that price tag is taken up by private charities?

Fact: Obama knows Rezko so what?

Fact: Obama is a middle of the road candidate and you're either a paid shill working for corporate funded right wing think tank trying to dupe Americans into voting against their interests or a fascist.

My prediction if McCain wins you'll witness Americas definitive slide into the toilet. He'll finish what George started. The Mandarins will reign over a corporate dictatorship a lot like China's maybe the Republican's already sold us to them. How much of the Iraq war is on Chinese credit?

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

nofreelunch — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 14:24:58 GMT

@Ezana

L---------------------O-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Conservative

Above is 100 dots each representing a senator. Obama is th 21st dot from the left. Even by your criteria Obama is nowhere near the center.

Your fact about Ayers is not a fact at all, but ignorance on your part.

Obama Timeline http://globallabor.blogspot.com/2008/04/who-sent-obama.html

1975-1979 Attended Highschool - Hawaii Mentored by Frank Marshall Davis, an avowed communist

1979-1981 Attended Occidental College-Calif.

1981-1983 attended Columbia Univ.-NYC Graduated 1983

1983-1985 Worked in NYC part of time for Group founded by Ralph Nader

1985-1988 Director of DCP- Group sponsored 1st by Woods Fund + Met William Ayers

1988 Entered Harvard Law School

1989 Summer interned at Chicago Law firm(Sidley & Austin) where Michelle, his future wife, and Bernedine Dohrn worked. Firm had close ties to Tom Ayers, William's Father

1990 President Harvard Law Review

1991 Graduated Harvard Law

1992 Directed Illinois Project Vote & co founded PUBLIC ALLIES

1993-1996 Worked as assoc. atty Davis, Miner (Worked summers 1996-2002) Judson Miner an associate of Tom Ayers

1993-2002 Board of Directors -Woods Fund (William Ayers also) Woods Fund made $40,000 grant to Arab American Action Network(AAAN) headed by Rashid Khalid in 2001, $35,000 in 2002

1994-2002 Board of Directors -The Joyce Foundation (anti gun grants)+William Ayers (wrote two grants)

1995-2002 Board of Directors -The Chicago Annenberg Challenge+ William Ayers

1996-2004 Illinois State Senate

2004-2008 US senate

Ayers and Obama have been interwined since 1988. Some think Ayers is Obama's chief mentor and power behind the curtain.

Obama knows Rezko so what?

Obama could not have bought the house he is living in without Rezko's help. Rezko raised $250,000 for Obama's early senate runs. Obama and Rezko were interlocked for 20 years until Rezko was indicted.

I'm neither a paid shill or a fascist. I'm an informed voter who sees Obama for what he is based on his history.

Lastly, your prediction and rant about the Mandarins and the corporate dictatorship, leads me to believe that you've been reading too many Robert Ludlum books. Try reading a history book now and then. Have a nice day.

re: Ad Hawk: Inside Obama's "High-Low" TV Campaign

Ezana — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:15:59 GMT

21 from furthest left makes him not the most liberal, and thank god he his not on the right. We've seen what the extreme right has accomplished with their big oil deregulation and tax breaks, union busting, unprovoked wars (justified using deception), unregulated "drunk" wall street. These people still believe trickle down economics is a reality. How does it feel to argue for McCain with no ammunition. Only sideways attacks based on speculation. Let me get this straight your using a blog site whose thesis is that there is a global labor conspiracy (unions are taking over the world?!?! you really believe that?), to prove your non-point about Ayers?!? I'm you can at least use words like "ignorance" as weapons because you don't have much else. Can you tell me how his proposed policies are better than Obama's? You can't because they aren't. Your campaigning for a guy who wants to bet our social security on wall street, and continue spending. If you are using that blog to inform you you are MISinformed, plain and simple. Rezko is a non-issue just like the McCain mob ties it's BS. As for china, take some time to look up who is paying for our war in Iraq. What percentage of our national debt is held by the Chinese? (i'll just tell you becuase I know you won't make it that far it's 20% of 2.78 trillion and being the academic that you are, I bet you can figure out that's alot). That means we don't have alot of leverage to say anything or do anything about there policies that include imprisonment without charges (like us in gitmo), business w/o labor standards (the reason our companies export jobs and there are so many anti-union iniatives on ballots this year), aid to genocidal dictators (like McCains friends in Myanmar), etc. I've been reading too many newspapers smart guy.