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  • Romney Wins the Iowa Straw Poll! Romney Wins the Iowa Straw Poll! It Means Everything! Or Not!

    Holly Bailey | Aug 11, 2007 09:17 PM
    Out Front: Romney. Photo: Khue Bui for Newsweek 

    They didn't have to bring in Katherine Harris, but it almost felt that way. Results from the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa were delayed more than an hour, after one of the Diebold machines used to tally the votes malfunctioned forcing a recount of 1,500 ballots. (Déjà vu, anyone?) No surprise, the big winner was Mitt Romney, who got 4,516 (or 32 percent of the vote).

    But the big headline of the night was Mike Huckabee's second place finish. The former Arkansas governor, who barely ranks on many national polls, finished with 18 percent of the vote, or 2,587 votes. Romney finished well ahead, but Huckabee's victory was notable because the former Arkansas governor spent almost nothing on his get out the vote efforts. While Romney and rival Sam Brownback (who finished a disappointing 3rd place, with 15 percent of the vote) each had more than 100 buses bring in supporters, Huckabee's campaign operated on the cheap. "No buses... we couldn't afford it," a jubilant Huckabee told reporters afterwards. "It's David and Goliath and a smooth stone. That's the only way I can explain it."

    How did the frontrunners do? Rudy Giuliani, up in most national polls, declined to participate in the straw vote, and he got only 183 votes (1 percent) out of the 14,302 ballots cast. John McCain got 101 votes, while Fred Thompson got 1.4 percent with 203 votes. It's hard to say if the poll results will do much in terms of winnowing the field. Tommy Thompson, who finished in fourth place, has said he would drop out if he didn't finish in the top three. And all eyes will surely be on Brownback, who spent a lot of money to attract votes at Ames but in the end had little to show for it.

    Remember all that downplaying the Romney campaign did on the eve of the vote? Well, on one hand, they were right. The number of overall ballots cast were down more than half compared to 2000, when George W. Bush easily won the poll. Yet, just as your Gaggler predicted, that didn't dampen the Romney camp's excitement, which quickly touted the former governor's "overwhelming victory." We'll have to wait until October to find out how much Romney spent per vote cast-ditto for the other campaigns. But one thing is clear: Romney and Huckabee are almost in the same boat. Both camps are hoping the Ames result will spark some momentum heading into fall, especially among voters outside of Iowa where both have struggled to catch fire. The ballots may be counted, but the judgment on whether the Ames Straw Poll waned in influence this year is still out.

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  • In Iowa, Down to the Last Straw

    Holly Bailey | Aug 11, 2007 08:28 PM
    Just in case you missed it, today is the infamous Ames Straw Poll, where as many as 40,000 Iowa Republicans are expected to cast a ballot for who they believe should be their party’s 2008 presidential nominee. Held every four years, it’s considered one of the most important political events heading into the presidential primary. Except, this year, it might not be, depending on who you talk to. For one, even though they are on the straw poll ballot, three of the leading frontrunners opted not to show up this year: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson, who isn’t even technically a candidate yet.
     
    That has prompted all kinds of expectation playing on all sides. So far, it’s considered Mitt Romney’s race to lose, largely because he’s spent gobs of money wooing supporters in the state and busing them in for the vote. Anything less than victory--and by a big margin at that, rivals say-would suggest that that Romney might not be all that here in Iowa. On Friday, Romney’s campaign tried to lower expectations noting, among other things, that a lack of a “prevailing national frontrunner” would suppress the Ames turnout. Uh huh. Your Gaggler’s interpretation of the Romney memo: If Mitt wins big, Ames is huge! If he doesn’t, Ames is lames!
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