As President Obama prepares to head south of the border next week to meet with allies at the Summit of the Americas, the New York Times reports that Obama is gearing up to tackle what is traditionally a hot button issue at that forum: immigration. The Times reports, citing a White House official, that Obama plans to pitch an immigration reform plan that includes pathway to citizenship for the nation’s estimated 12 million illegal immigrants. There are few other details on what exactly else he’ll build into the plan. Obama is expected to speak publicly on his immigration proposal in May and over the summer, the White House will convene working groups to examine the issue.
It’s a little unclear why the White House is leaking this information out now, though we guess it’s a move to possibly test the political waters on what will clearly be a divisive issue. Just ask George W. Bush, who saw his bipartisan proposal tank amid strong opposition from Republicans two years ago. The atmospherics are a lot different now—and not for the better. The economy is clearly not in a great place, with unemployment numbers on the increase. And that likely will only enhance the argument reform opponents made last time that legalizing immigrants could hurt U.S. jobs. Obama appears to have learned some lessons from that last battle: He’ll apparently couch his proposal by arguing for more border protections and cracking down on employers who hire illegal immigrants. The thing to watch is who in Congress will get on board with Obama. With some exceptions—including possibly, John McCain—the White House likely won’t attract much support from Republicans. But it’s Democrats who may be the biggest challenge for Obama. He'll need to support of the majority of his party for immigration reform to pass, but that won't be easy. Conservative Democrats, including the Blue Dog coalition in the House, weren’t very enthused about this issue the last time it came up. Will Obama's popularity among voters make the difference?
