Last night The Washington Post reported Sen. Chris Dodd's decision to decline the chairmanship of the powerful Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee (HELP), previously chaired by Ted Kennedy. Dodd wants to stay put as chair of the Senate banking committee so he can have a strong hand in developing a robust new regulatory framework for the finance sector. As a result, the HELP chairmanship will likely fall to Iowa's Tom Harkin. The committee is a natural fit for the reliably liberal Harkin, who is best known for championing disabilities legislation. 

To take up the new position, Harkin will vacate his seat at the head of the agriculture committee, opening it up for Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, thus striking fear into the hearts of environmentalists. Why? Lincoln is a cautious moderate from a relatively conservative state. She's been a holdout on health-care reform and flatly opposes a public option. "For some in my caucus, when they talk about a public option they're talking about another entitlement program, and we can't afford that right now as a nation," Lincoln said last week. Lincoln is facing a tough reelection next year; polls show her losing to Republicans. She's no friend of her party's liberal wing.

What does all this have to do with the environment? Agriculture is one of several committees that have jurisdiction over a climate-change bill. As chair, Lincoln will be reluctant to take the sort of risks environmentalists are calling for. She'll be under serious pressure from farmers who are deeply concerned about the costs that climate-change legislation could impose on their businesses, as well as from the particularly conservative GOP contingent on her committee. And then there are the voters. Those most likely to turn out in midterms (i.e., older, white, more conservative), particularly in a place like Arkansas, remain dubious about cap-and-trade. If Lincoln chairs a committee that passes some form of carbon-trading regime, it will be easy fodder for her Republican opponents in 2010. So it will be in her political interest to hold up climate-change legislation until after the election. Environmentalists hoping the Senate will strengthen the House's Waxman-Markey bill should start readjusting their expectations.