Democrats on Capitol Hill just collectively exhaled, joyously. Maine Senator Olympia Snowe has told the Senate Finance Committee that she intends to vote yes on Max Baucus's health care reform bill today. All the committee's Democrats have also committed to voting aye, so the bill is well on its way to the Senate floor. Hopes of bipartisan support for a final bill are now slowly rekindling. Snowe's blessing opens the door for her Maine colleague, Susan Collins, to think twice about her vote, and it may even pull a couple of other moderate Republicans, a dwindling breed, along with her.
Snowe's vote isn't all that surprising. Baucus twisted himself into a pretzel trying to craft a bill she could vote for, and she got nearly everything she wanted. There was some speculation around the beltway this morning that she would vote no to preserve her bargaining power on the floor. But she hasn't undercut that power with this vote. She's only committing to let the bill be considered by the entire Senate. On the Senate floor, her vote is far from a sure thing, especially if liberal Democrats start tinkering with the bill in a way that moves it more toward their liking. She's probably reinforced her power: she's the one Republican that Reid knows he can get when he melds Baucus's bill with the one that emerged from the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee. He's now even more likely to construct his leadership bill in a way that suits her, rather than shift toward the more progressive wing of his party. She may have even bought herself a seat at his table while he works to combine the bills. At the very least, her voice will loom large in those discussions.
Snowe's vote has broader political ramifications. She's restored some credibility to Max Baucus. He's been battered from here to Wasilla for spending two long months trying in earnest to negotiate with Republicans, only to be dumped by almost all of them. Now, his efforts have borne fruit. Her vote also makes it more difficult for moderate Democrats like Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman—who both worked to secure her vote for the stimulus earlier this year—to justify thumbing their noses at the reform bill. (Although I'm betting we start hearing a lot more from those two real soon.) But Snowe may very well suffer for her actions. She's in line to become the ranking member on the Senate Commerce Committee when her colleague Kay Bailey Hutchinson retires in order to run for governor of Texas, but The Hill reports that some Republicans are considering denying her the top spot as payback for what they see as her health-care heresy.
Perhaps the most relieved person on Capitol Hill right now is Blanche Lincoln. She's up for reelection next year and her poll numbers are horrible. The president is unpopular in her home state of Arkansas, as is health-care reform. If Olympia Snowe, and possibly even Susan Collins, vote for health-care reform, Democrats will be able to pass the magic number 60 without her vote. Leadership might even let her off the hook, turning a blind eye to a nay vote in the knowledge that the alternative may cost her—and them—a Senate seat.
