America's conservatives are probably feeling pretty chuffed today after reading Gallup's recent polling on political ideology. The data confirm Gallup's June finding that conservatism is the dominant ideology in the country right now. About 40 percent of respondents identified themselves as conservative, while 36 percent called themselves moderate and 20 percent liberal. The last time the conservative number was so high was in 2003 and 2004. The reason today's numbers are important is that they've jumped up 3 points after holding steady at 37 percent from 2006 to 2008. Considering the size of the sample and the lack of movement in the past few years, that jump is significant.

Although the numbers don't look great for Democrats, they're not exactly a reason for popping champagne at the RNC. According to Jeff Jones, managing editor of the Gallup poll, the number of people identifying as conservative rose similarly when Bill Clinton assumed the presidency in 1993. In 1992, conservatives made up 36 percent of the electorate. That number popped up to 39 percent in 1993. It dropped back to 38 percent in 1994, when Republicans took control of Congress, and reached its contemporary nadir—36 percent—the following year.

Although it's enormously difficult to prove a direct correlation between the change of administration and the increase in conservatism, Jones told your Gaggler that it's hard not to think that the changeover prompted voters to shift their positions a little. He says such ideological changes often come from people who don't pay all that much attention to politics, or don't have strongly held political convictions. Often these people like the idea of a middle path, a country that doesn't skew one way or another. So, when they sense—largely through media coverage—that the country is moving liberal, they'll adjust their position to try to promote more moderate policies.

Now, consider where the growth in conservatism is coming from in Gallup's latest numbers: independent voters. In 2008, 29 percent of independents called themselves conservative. Now 35 percent do, while the number identifying themselves as liberal dropped from 20 percent to 18 percent, and moderate from 46 percent to 43 percent. Meanwhile, the ideological makeup (liberal/moderate/conservative) of the Democratic and Republican camps was relatively steady. While it is certainly true that not all independents fall into the "not paying much attention to politics" category, those people are more likely to be independent than party-affiliated. They're probably also less likely to vote.

Perhaps what should worry Democrats more is not an overall tendency to claim oneself as a conservative, but the shifts of particular issues. Gallup reported upticks in the number of people who believe there is too much government regulation; that gun laws should be less restrictive; that immigration should be decreased; and that global warming is exaggerated. Attitudes about gay marriage, Iraq, and Afghanistan haven't really changed. For Democrats, this is probably the most worrying sentence in Gallup's background brief: "There are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year." It's that, not a general ideological preference, that will make the Democratic legislative agenda even more difficult going forward.