It's Election Day, and although none of the contests has a real national impact, political strategists will be analyzing every minute detail for clues on national trends. As the results come trickling in, here are five things to watch for.
1. In Virginia, things look pretty dour for Creigh Deeds. Although Obama won the state last year, Deeds has few of the traits that excited Democrats to vote for Obama in droves. But Republicans will quickly celebrate a poor showing by Deeds as proof that the president's star power is waning. Watch for the White House to subtly distance itself from the Deeds campaign, likely in the form of blind quotes on Politico or in tomorrow's Washington Post.
2. In New Jersey, incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie will be duking it out till the bitter end. It's a close race, but as the man formerly known as Stumper wrote last week, Jersey politics is often decided by the strength of the Democratic turnout machine. Tonight's vote will be an indicator of whether the base there is politically motivated enough to vote for a guy they're not that excited about just to prevent a GOP win. A Corzine loss would be the most worrying outcome of the night for Democrats. That said, the person who will decide tonight's race is really Republican turned independent Chris Daggett, who has steadily chipped away at Christie's numbers. Watch for Democrats to marginalize his impact on the race—they won't want to admit that Corzine may have been trampled if Daggett hadn't taken some of the vote. Speaking of third-party candidates . . .
3. In NY-23, a GOP seat that surprisingly has become the race to watch, look for unbridled joy from conservatives regardless of the outcome—and by conservatives, I don't just mean Republicans. Mainstream GOPers should be very worried about the events in NY-23, where an independent candidate managed to buck the Republican machine. The seat has been held by the GOP since the 19th century and should have been an uneventful race. But the pro-choice, pro-gay GOP candidate, Dede Scozzafava, rankled local conservatives, forcing her to drop out. Watch for Republican talking heads to tread very carefully when discussing this race on cable tonight. Democrats will charge that this is a sign that the GOP is edging further toward the right, and away from mainstream America. Republicans won't want to invest this race—and thus the rejection of their party—with too much meaning. Scozzafava, after all, wasn't your typical GOP candidate. But Republicans also don't want to risk the wrath of feisty conservatives in their party. Watching the spinners walk that line will be interesting.
4. In Maine, marriage equality is being put to the test via ballot initiative. It hasn't fared well at the hands of voters thus far—remember California's Proposition 8? In those states where gay marriage is legal—including Iowa, Vermont and Massachusetts—it was the result of legislation, not ballot initiatives. But gay-marriage activists have high hopes for Maine. One problem there, though, is the wording on the actual ballot. To vote in favor of gay marriage, residents have to vote no on the resolution. Whatever the outcome in Maine, watch for the winning side to hail it as the truest representation of America's attitudes toward gay marriage. Another interesting ballot initiative to watch is in Ohio, where voters will decide whether to allow casino gambling. The pro-gambling side has painted it as a much-needed source of income for the cash-strapped state. Whether Ohio voters go for it—it is, after all, the fifth time they've been asked—might be a clue as to how acutely they're feeling the recession's pinch.
5. Overall, watch for all these races to be spun, in one way or another, as indicators of the state of Obama's presidency. Regardless of the outcome, I don't agree, but more on that later. Stay tuned.
