One theme emerging from the post-Election Day chatter is that the results augur well for Marco Rubio, the upstart challenging Florida Gov. Charlie Crist in next year's Senate primary in the Sunshine State. Running as a "true conservative" opposed to Crist's centrism, Rubio has energized some of the same anti-establishment forces that helped elbow aside Dede Scozzafava in New York's 23rd Congressional District. So, the reasoning goes, Rubio just got a fresh jolt of momentum. National conservatives are fired up and turning their attention to Florida. And Rubio is likely to get lots more attention and a fresh infusion of campaign cash. Already, the Club for Growth, which reportedly pumped $1 million into Doug Hoffman's campaign in New York's 23rd Congressional District, has signaled its interest in Rubio.
Certainly, this is good news for Rubio, particularly in the short term. But I'd point to some caveats. For starters, conditions are likely to start turning more hostile for him. Until now, he's basically gotten a free ride. The mainstream media has largely covered his campaign in inspirational, David-versus-Goliath terms. That won't last much longer. The race, which has already drawn national attention, will now move more fully into the spotlight. With that will come greater scrutiny—of Rubio's record, of his perceived contradictions, of his tenure as Florida House speaker (which came under plenty of criticism).
Crist partisans sound like they're ready to pounce. As Peter Wallsten noted in a Wall Street Journal piece today, the campaign's oppo researchers are operating in high gear. Among the tidbits they've uncovered: a YouTube video in which Rubio seems to concede that emission caps would become reality, the same caps Rubio has been lambasting Crist for supporting at one time. There's also Rubio's advocacy, during his time in the Florida House, of substituting an increased sales tax for property taxes. That offers Crist an opening to attack Rubio as a tax-hiker. In short, the gloves are coming off.
Moreover, yesterday's results were a victory for centrism. The candidates who ran as moderates (Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell) won, and the one who ran far to the right (Hoffman) lost. So Crist's brand of Republicanism was vindicated, not Rubio's. True, the folks who usually turn out in GOP primaries are more conservative, but Florida Republicans are a big, diverse lot and not dominated by the tea-party crowd. If there's something Crist should be worried about, however, it's the unmistakeably anti-incumbent mood that emerged yesterday, says Susan MacManus of the University of South Florida. "There's an anger right now against whoever's in office," she says. "The question is, how long does that last?"
