Earlier this week Holly wrote a really interesting piece about the electoral parallels between now and 1993—and the fact that the GOP is hoping for a dramatic Democratic defeat in next year's midterms, similar to what happened in 1994. Holly points out several flaws in the analogy: Republicans have more baggage going into next year's elections than they did in '94, congressional Republicans have exceptionally low approval ratings, the GOP lacks strong national leadership, and there's damaging infighting between conservatives and moderates. But I'd like to add another difference to the list: health-care reform.
The dismal failure of the Clinton health-care plan in the summer of 1994 helped crystallize support for the GOP. Its final whimper came just months before the '94 congressionals, ending a long, fierce battle on an abysmal note for Democrats. This time around, health-care reform will pass. It won't be an ambitious overhaul along the lines that Clinton had envisioned. And, in the end, it may not even include a public option (although the White House assures me it will.) But health-care reform, in some fashion, will be passed, and it will be done well in advance of the election. By the time the voting booths open, the health-care debate will be done. (Until, of course, it is revived, probably in the middle of the next decade, when the reforms have been implemented and either ambitious liberals attempt to strengthen it or conservatives try to stymie it.)
To be sure, the health-care debate has been damaging to the Obama administration, just as it was to the Clintons. But by the time midterms roll around, it won't be sucking up all the oxygen in the room, as it is now, and as it did in 1994. Sure, Republicans will try to attack vulnerable Democrats over the plan. We'll probably see more protests like the one on Capitol Hill today. Anti-abortion activists will no doubt remain energized. But my prediction is that health care won't be top of mind for most Americans in November next year. It won't be the vote winner it was in '94. It won't be the divisive force it was then (or it was this past August, for that matter). In all likelihood, Americans will be far more concerned about their economic security than a health-care plan they haven't started feeling the effects of yet.
Also diminishing health care's electoral potency will be the shellacking the Republican alternative plan received from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last night. Ezra Klein has the lowdown on the CBO analysis:
[In 2019] the Republican alternative will have helped 3 million people secure
coverage, which is barely keeping up with population growth. Compare
that to the Democratic bill, which covers 36 million more people and
cuts the uninsured population to 4 percent. The GOP's alternative will shave $68
billion off the deficit in the next 10 years. The Democrats, CBO says,
will slice $104 billion off the deficit. The Democratic bill, in other words, covers 12 times as many people
and saves $36 billion more than the Republican plan.
This is a major embarrassment for the Republicans. It's one thing to
keep your cards close to your chest. Republicans are in the minority,
after all, and their plan stands no chance of passage. It's another to
lay them out on the table and show everyone that you have no hand, and
aren't even totally sure how to play the game. The Democratic plan
isn't perfect, but in comparison, it's looking astonishingly good.
Sure, Republicans are already eyeing health-care reform as a battering ram for next year's elections, but a heck of a lot can happen in a year.
