It's been a week to savor for immigrant advocates. First, there was the news that Lou Dobbs, with his nostril-flaring rants against illegal immigration, was departing CNN. Then there was Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano's speech at the Center for American Progress today, in which she declared in no uncertain terms that the administration was intent on pursuing comprehensive immigration reform in early 2010.

For pro-immigrant groups, this was a welcome change of tone from Napolitano. All year, they've been complaining that she and other administration officials seemed concerned with only one thing: cracking down on illegal immigrants. They were incensed, for instance, when Homeland Security announced over the summer that it was expanding a controversial program that allows local police to act as immigration agents. But now it's clear what the administration was up to: it was laying the groundwork for an overhaul of the immigration system, one that would include a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. As Napolitano argued today, Congress can now take up immigration reform because the administration has made significant progress in tightening the borders and cracking down on employers who hire illegal workers.

So what are the prospects for an immigration law to pass? In my view, decent. That may sound naive, given the fact that unemployment has topped 10 percent and tea-party activists are feeling more energized than ever.

But consider the following. First, Democratic majorities in Congress are bigger than they were in 2007. Second, as I described in a piece last month, the pro-reform forces are better organized this time around. Third, their coalition is actually expanding. Many of the actors from last time—business, labor, law enforcement, faith organizations—are still on board. But there are new ones as well, including the National Association of Evangelicals and religious conservatives like Mathew Staver of Liberty University. Fourth, Republican opposition won't be monolithic, as it has been during the health-care debate. Senators like John McCain and Lindsey Graham would likely support the administration's effort. And fifth, GOP leaders are worried about alienating Hispanic voters, who have more electoral clout, and less sympathy for Republicans, than ever. 

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Obama needs to get health reform passed first. If not, the chances he'll succeed on immigration are virtually nil.