If it's not Mike Bloomberg, it's his predecessor. The New York Daily News reports that Rudy Giuliani is going to run for the Senate in 2010 and that he may use that as a stepping stone to a presidential run in 2012. Over at The Atlantic Chris Good claims "Giuliani will make a formidable Senate candidate, should he run—in fact, if he enters the race, he will likely become the frontrunner," noting that he polls ahead of incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand.
Repeat after me, punditariat: the mayoralty of New York is a stepping stone to nothing. Being mayor of New York is a good way to:
A) piss off a lot of powerful constituencies by making hard choices
B) piss off a lot of powerful constituencies by being the kind of obnoxious jerk who becomes mayor of New York in the first place
C) get entangled in the minor corruption that is endemic to even the best-run major city governments
and, D) become well known to the powerful national media figures in your hometown, who will talk about how you will or should run for senate, governorship, or the presidency.
But it ain't happening. Like Ed Koch and John Lindsay before him, Rudy Giuliani has been seen at times as a likely, and strong, candidate for statewide or national office. And, like both of them, he'll lose if he actually runs. Flashback to early 2000, when Giuliani's approval ratings were in the toilet, thanks to his contentious tenure, and he was losing to carpetbagger Hillary Clinton in every poll for the Senate race. He dropped out, citing health reasons, and was not expected to ever come back. But then September 11 made him America's mayor, his national name recognition soared, making him misleadingly appear to be a GOP frontrunner in the 2008 election, and off he went to New Hampshire and Florida. Forty-eight million dollars and 1 RNC delegate later, Giuliani crashed and burned, his image tarnished by revelations about his inappropriate use of his NYPD security detail, and his cronies' even worse behavior.
When will people learn? Polls three years in advance are about name recognition and little else. When the campaign actually starts and the New York press picks the bones of the skeletons of the Giuliani's closet, his numbers will go down. The rationale for his presidential or gubernatorial candidacy—crime-fighting and managerial credentials—don't apply to legislative, rather than executive, office. Democrats hold a 5-3 registration advantage in New York State. When people actually step in the voting booth, plenty of folks who currently don't know Gillibrand from Eve will pull the lever for her. And, Gillibrand has shown some political talent.
The better question is why anyone thinks Giuliani is running at all. He could make millions of dollars a year giving motivational speeches and working as a lawyer, with a direct line into all the cable news networks. Or, he can spend the next year going to county fairs Upstate, shaking hands, giving the same stump speech, asking donors for money and answering fascinating questions. "Mr. Giuliani, what are you going to do about the economy here in Elmira? Mr. Giuliani, how are you going to protect New York's dairy farmers? Mr. Giuliani, the public schools here in Herkimer County are teaching evolution, what do you think about that?"
All in the service of either losing or getting to be a junior senator in the minority party. Which he will chose? Either way, I don't think we'll talking about Senator Giuliani in 2011.
