It's no secret that since Al Franken was sworn in on July 7, Democrats supposedly have the senatorial holy grail: a filibusterproof majority. But it will also come as no surprise that Senate math is never that simple, and Democrats rarely so disciplined. On an issue like health care, the Democrats' big new tent starts stretching at the seams. The wizards in NEWSWEEK's graphics department helped me put the illustration below together to explain who the biggest headaches are for Richard Durbin (and of course for Majority Leader Harry Reid) are on this issue, and which GOPers might offer relief. The list isn't conclusive (mainly because of space constraints). For example, Mike Enzi isn't there, and if Finance Chairman Max Baucus manages to cut a deal with Ranking Member Chuck Grassley, then Enzi will likely come along. I didn't list Mark Pryor because he hasn't been as vocal as his Arkansas counterpart, but it's highly probable that he and Blanche Lincoln will end up voting together. Also, the list keeps changing. Last week Republican Orrin Hatch looked like he would vote for a bill, but then he dropped out of the bipartisan negotiating group. The other big factor not accounted for in the graphic is the absence of Ted Kennedy, whose unparalleled negotiating skill would surely have helped advance the process.

 

Regardless, the point is that on health-care reform, Senate Democratsremain their own worst enemy. (Jonathan Chait's April essay in The NewRepublic is instructive here, and worth another read if you haven'talready.) Kent Conrad essentially told ABC News yesterday that without a fewGOPers coming across, that Durbin and Reid simply won't have the votesin their own caucus. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on Baucus, who's about the only Democrat with a lifeline to the GOP right now.Strangely though, his office has been superquiet about what'shappening in the negotiatons. All eyes will be on him this week. Ithink it is safe to say that whatever he comes up with, it will be moretimid that what the House is proposing, and very few people will behappy with it. After being largely ignored by Baucus in recent weeks,Senate Democrats will be aggravated when he likely produces a proposalthat doesn't include a public plan (he'll probably opt for a privateco-op-type arrangment to expand coverage) but does change thetax-exempt status of health-care benefits. Republicans will scream tilltheir voices are hoarse about the costs involved. The bill itself may represent some pretty ordinary public policy. And the ensuing debate will certainly be painful. Butwith the release of Baucus's proposal it's likely that he, Reid, andDurbin will have managed what decades of leadership have failedto do: pass a heath-care reform bill. And at this stage, it's fair to say the White House would prefer a less-than-ideal bill to no bill at all. "Some reform" will be remembered more fondly than "abject failure to control one's own party" when voters go to the polls again in 2012.