USA Today presents some interesting, if perhaps not groundbreaking, numbers on socioeconomic representation in Congress today. According to the report, which is based on analysis of census data,

Democratic members of the House of Representatives now represent most of the nation's wealthiest people, a sharp turnaround from the long-standing dominance that Republicans have held over affluent districts ... Democrats now represent 57% of the 4.8 million households that had incomes of $200,000 or more in 2008. In 2005, Republicans represented 55% of those affluent households.

The change in distribution of seats in the House is roughly the same size as the shift the article describes—although USA Today's data doesn't connect any dots between the two. Still, it goes without saying that some of the shift is a natural product of Democrats' electoral gains in the 2008 elections, in which they picked up 21 seats.

Chris Pizzello/AP (left); AL Grillo/AP

We here at the Gaggle do politics, but we couldn't help take note of Paula Abdul's recent departure as a judge on American Idol after eight seasons. The staging of her leave looks oddly familiar, we thought to ourselves. After all, it was only a month ago that we witnessed an equally bizarre and sudden exit of another big player in her own field: Sarah Palin. It turns out, both women and their resignations are far more similar than they are different. Let's pick apart the comparison:

Pollsters around the country would remember the 2008 New Hampshire primary as a low point for their profession. Contrary to nearly every poll, Hillary Clinton pulled out a surprise upset victory over Barack Obama, who had just walloped her in Iowa. Based on available polling, very few people predicted Clinton's success. Your Gaggler was covering the Romney campaign at the time, and remembers Romney staffers betting not on who would win the Democratic primary, but on how much Obama would win by.  In the subsequent days reporters and politicos alike scratched their heads and offered theories about what the pollsters did wrong. Today, after many months of research, the American Association for Public Opinion Research is out with a detailed report describing what they believe went wrong. Mark Blumenthal over at Pollster.com summarizes some of the key findings:

In other words, what happened in New Hampshire wasn't one thing, it was a likely lot of small things, all introducing errors in the same direction. Various methodological challenges or shortcomings that might ordinarily produce offsetting variation in polls instead combined to throw them all off in the same direction. Polling's "perfect storm" did not materialize this past fall, but that label seems more apt for the New Hampshire polling debacle.

The report also produces evidence that rules out a number of prominent theories, among them the so-called "Bradley Effect." The authors claim they saw "no evidence that white respondents over-represented their support for Obama," and thus, no evidence of "latent racism" benefiting Clinton. Fair enough, but they do report evidence of a "social desirability effect" that led respondents to report "significantly greater" support for Obama "when when the interviewer is black than when he or she is white" (although Obama still led by smaller margins among when interviewers were white -- see pp 55-59 of the pdf report).

You can download the full report from the AAPOR's website.

Is Newt Gingrich running for president? The former House speaker has said he won't make a final decision about a campaign for the White House until this fall. But here's a big hint that Newt might be out of the game: GOP strategist Rich Galen, one of Gingrich's longest and closest advisers, announced this weekend that he's signed on as a senior advisor to former Sen. Fred Thompson, who is considering his own bid for the White House. "Assuming he gets into the race, I think Fred Thompson may well be the best combination of insider-outsider experience and possess the new kind of ideas that don't exist in either party," Galen told CNN, where he has appeared as an on-air political analyst. It's unlikely that Galen would jump to another candidate without Gingrich's blessing. Galen was Gingrich's top communications aide in the House and has been an unpaid adviser and friend since then. Last December, Galen appeared as a surrogate for a prospective Gingrich 2008 bid on a Washington panel organized by National Journal's Hotline to discuss the GOP presidential race. Indeed, the pair is so close that Galen has been considered a go-to guy for reporters looking to read the tea leaves about Newt's ambitions. Last week, Gingrich told the Associated Press that a Thompson bid would make him less likely to join the 2008 race. "If Fred Thompson runs and he does well, then I think that makes it easier for me not to run," Gingrich said. But as he prone to do, Newt still left the door open a crack, telling AP, "On the other hand, just given with you've seen with (John) McCain the last few months, how can you predict?" As for Thompson, it's anybody's guess at this point when the former Law & Order star will throw his hat in the ring. His advisers initially said he'd be in the race by mid-July, then pushed it back to August. Now rumors have Thompson entering the race by Labor Day- maybe. One thing's for sure: Fred's busy raising money for his exploratory bid--as certain a sign as any that he's really planning to run. He's scheduled to hold his first big-dollar Washington fundraiser next week.

Contributed by Jonathan Darman and Arian Campo-Flores

When Judi Giuliani referred to her "big testosterone-factor husband" in the pages of Harper's Bazaar in February, her remarks were widely ridiculed and seen as evidence that the former New York mayor's new wife might not be quite ready for prime time. But after Louisiana Sen. David Vitter, Giuliani's top Southern conservative ally, admitted he'd solicited prostitutes from the famed "D.C. Madam," Judi's description seems remarkably apt. The testosterone factor may be at play, but not in quite the way his wife intended--and it could wind up as one of the biggest impediments to Giuliani's winning the GOP nomination for the White House.

It's that time of year again, folks. June 30 is the second-quarter fund-raising deadline for 2008 presidential hopefuls, and the big question heading into Saturday is how much money the campaigns have raised and spent during the last three months. Technically, the candidates don't have to tell us until July 15, when their disclosure reports are due at the Federal Election Commission. But if their handling of the first-quarter numbers is any indication, the candidates will probably brag about how much they've raised well before the deadline, possibly as early as next week.

But "brag" might be a strong word. Already many candidates are playing the expectations game--as in, uh oh, maybe we didn't do as well as we hoped. Some of this is smoke and mirrors. Hillary Clinton types, for example, are spreading word that she might be beaten by Barack Obama again when it comes to primary fund-raising, while Obama aides, off the record of course, are putting the onus on Hillary, talking a sad story about how tough it is to compete against the Clinton money juggernaut. The truth is, we just won't know until we see the numbers.

Your Gaggler could probably spend all day long talking about last night's series finale of "The Sopranos." And truth be told, she pretty much has. (Sorry, boss.) We won't even begin to pick through what it all meant: Did Tony die? Did Tony live? And what was up with that cat? (Adriana lives, people!) Suffice to say, one of the best moments of the night had to have been A.J.'s reaction upon seeing his $30,000 SUV explode in flames because he parked it on leaves during an impromptu hook-up with a high school sweetie. According to A.J., it was just as well. "We need to break our dependence on foreign oil," he declared. President Bush couldn't have said it better. (And Bush even made a cameo--dancing. As did Karl Rove. Talk about a lasting legacy.) At least we're not the only ones consumed. Even the folks cruising the Free Republic forums have found a way to bring the debate full circle. "There is no way that Tony Soprano can be killed," one Free Republic reader wrote. "He is like immigration reform, too much at stake for too many people."

Update: Hillary gets in on the action:

By Ruth Olson

It would be stating the obvious to say that Mormon presidential candidate Mitt Romney has a lot of support at Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah. But the former Massachusetts governor isn't the only pol drawing support on the campus of 27,000 full-time undergraduate students, 98 percent of them members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

David Garber, a BYU student from Virginia, recently started a club to promote the candidacy of Republican Ron Paul. The group isn't an official campus club yet, so his activities have been limited. Garber admits it has been somewhat difficult getting started; so far he has half a dozen members in his group. "We're pretty optimistic," says Garber, who believes Paul's policies are a better fit with mainstream Utah values than Romney's.

Lauren Clough, who's heading up a group in support of Democratic candidate Barack Obama, says the school administration has been supportive, but that doesn't always hold true of the students. "It is hard, and it can be frustrating, because people can be mean about it," she says. But then again, she said, she's always liked a challenge.

By Noelle Chun

There weren't any advertisements. And yet, one warm Saturday morning in May, in the middle of the Pacific, an unpublicized organizational meeting drew some 150 people to a sticky middle-school classroom. But who needs publicity when the project is about Hawaii's favorite son, Barack Obama, who was born in the Islands and graduated from high school in Honolulu.

But the Obama camp might not want to rest on its laurels. Among Hawaii's congressional delegation, nominee support is fractured. The state's senior senator, Daniel Inouye, announced two weeks ago he would support Hillary Clinton. Rep. Neil Abercrombie is supporting Obama, but Sen. Daniel Akaka remains quiet on the matter. "The Democrats in Hawaii are less and less cohesive," says Jim Shon, a political analyst and former state legislator.

Still many are pumped up about Obama's Hawaiian roots. "What's exciting is this idea of aloha being brought to the world," says supporter Lynne Johnson of Honolulu. "After growing up in Hawaii and Indonesia, Barack represents that tolerance and inclusiveness and mutual understanding."