Katie Connolly
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Nov 4, 2009 12:28 AM
Make no mistake: tonight’s losses in Virginia and New Jersey should worry the Democratic Party. Just one year after their historic presidential victory, it turns out that ballots without the name “Obama” don’t have the same magnetic allure for voters, especially if said voters are young, black, or Hispanic. That’s a problem for Democrats heading into 2010, particularly members of Congress who were elected in traditionally Republican districts. But be careful about reading too much into these results. It wasn't a referendum on the president.
Recent history tells us that both Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests tend to be won by the party that has just been kicked out of the White House. In 2001, Democrats Jim McGreevey and Mark Warner soundly beat their Republican opponents in New Jersey and Virginia, respectively, where the GOP had held both positions. And in 1993, Bill Clinton’s first year in office, Christine Todd Whitman in New Jersey and George Allen in Virginia wrested the governorships from Democrats.
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Andrew Romano
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Nov 3, 2009 11:52 PM
Well, what do I know?
Last Friday, I predicted on this blog that
incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine would defeat GOP challenger
Chris Christie in my home state of New Jersey--a "wildly reckless
prediction," as I put it, but a prediction all the same. I was wrong.
With 95 percent of precincts reporting, the fat man has defeated the
bald man 49 percent to 45 percent, returning Drumthwacket--that's our
endearingly Harry Potter-esque name for the governor's mansion--to
Republican hands for the first time since 2001.
How
did Christie
do it? Given that the final pre-election polls pegged the Republican's
lead at a statistically insignificant one percent, Corzine's defeat was
surprisingly broad and deep. He lost in swing counties, like
Gloucester, that he won handily in 2005; he lost Republican strongholds
like Monmouth by even larger margins than the last time around.
Independents preferred Christie to Corzine 58 percent to 33 percent,
and energized Republicans made up a three percent larger share of the
electorate (31 percent) than they did in 2008. Christie trounced
Corzine by 8 percent among voters aged 30-44, a group of New Jerseyans
that Barack Obama won last year by more than 15 percent. And most
importantly, Independent candidate Chris Daggett, who climbed as high
as 20 percent in the polls earlier this fall, ended up being something
of a non-factor. Heading into Tuesday, Daggett was still clinging to
about 10 percent of the vote. But on Election Day approximately half of
the voters who'd told pollsters they planned to pull the lever for the
Independent wound up in Christie's column instead--which pretty much
accounts for the Christie's margin of victory. Even if Corzine had
pocketed 75 percent of the remaining Dagget loyalists--an impossibility
given that Daggett was clearly siphoning off anti-Corzine voters from
Christie--he still would've lost.
CLICK THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE STORY...
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Howard Fineman
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Nov 3, 2009 11:29 PM
Election Day 2009 was not a repudiation of Barack Obama, but it sure wasn't a vote of confidence, either. Exit polls in Virginia and New Jersey showed that fewer than 40 percent of voters factored the president per se into their polling-booth equation. But the deep skepticism that the (shrunken) electorate showed toward Democratic candidates can't be interpreted in any other way than as a vote of not-quite-confidence in the man in the White House. The fact is, as the exits showed, voters are overwhelmingly worried about the economy—and the president has done little or nothing, it seems, to allay that fear. That presents an opening to the Republican Party next year, if they can take advantage of it.
Two gubernatorial elections do not a new national party make. Nationwide, the GOP currently has the allegiance of only one in five voters—the lowest percentage since Abe Lincoln was building the party a century and a half ago. If the Republicans are going to build on the momentum they acquired today, they are going to have to present credible alternative plans for economic revival. The national party might take a look at what Bob McDonnell did in Virginia. He had specific, detailed plans for transportation, education, and other bread-and-butter concerns in the state, especially in the swing-voter suburbs near Washington.
As for Obama, he needs to pass—and convincingly sell the virtues of—legislation that helps real people in real ways.
Howard Fineman
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Nov 3, 2009 11:17 PM
This election was as much about who didn't show up as who did. Obama
World took the day off. As a result, the races in Virginia, New Jersey,
and New York were largely left to the old school—older white folks—and
they yanked the results back in their own (generally conservative)
direction.
If this was a rebellion we were watching, as some
Republicans suggested, it was a rebellion of an antique America—in
both the literal and figurative sense—against the dawn of a
demographically and perhaps philosophically new country.
I don't
have much exit-poll data in hand (they are very tight with such things
over here at NBC, where I am camped out), but from what I can glean,
the minority turnout in Virginia and New Jersey was relatively
light—certainly compared with the tsunami of 2008. (There are few
persons of color in the North Country of New York state, where a House
special election also drew attention.)
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Katie Connolly
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Nov 3, 2009 09:24 AM
It's
Election Day, and although none of the contests has a real national
impact, political strategists will be analyzing every minute detail for
clues on national trends. As the results come trickling in, here are
five things to watch for.
1. In Virginia, things look pretty dour for Creigh Deeds. Although Obama won the state last year, Deeds has few of the traits
that excited Democrats to vote for Obama in droves. But Republicans
will quickly celebrate a poor showing by Deeds as proof that the
president's star power is waning. Watch for the White House to subtly
distance itself from the Deeds campaign, likely in the form of blind
quotes on Politico or in tomorrow's Washington Post.
2. In New Jersey,
incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie
will be duking it out till the bitter end. It's a close race, but as
the man formerly known as Stumper wrote last week,
Jersey politics is often decided by the strength of the Democratic
turnout machine. Tonight's vote will be an indicator of whether the
base there is politically motivated enough to vote for a guy they're
not that excited about just to prevent a GOP win. A Corzine loss would
be the most worrying outcome of the night for Democrats. That said, the
person who will decide tonight's race is really Republican turned
independent Chris Daggett, who has steadily chipped away at Christie's
numbers. Watch for Democrats to marginalize his impact on the race—they
won't want to admit that Corzine may have been trampled if Daggett
hadn't taken some of the vote. Speaking of third-party candidates . . .
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David A. Graham
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Oct 20, 2009 04:30 PM
Republicans are rubbing their hands in glee—and Democrats wringing theirs—at the struggles of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. Both of these governor's seats carry great power and would be impressive coups for the GOP, but from a national level, they're really most important for citizens of New Jersey and Virginia. The race the nation should be watching is a special election in upstate New York.
On the gubernatorial level, Republican Bob McDonnell looks to have the upper hand in Virginia, while incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine may eke out a win in New Jersey but will only do so after embarrassing 11th-hour revelations about opponent Chris Christie, attacks on Christie's weight, and help from an independent, third-party challenger. But regardless of who wins, these races aren't really referendums on Barack Obama—they're referendums on the corruption-racked Garden State and the economic future of the Old Dominion. The New York race, however, will provide some hints as to whether Democrats can hold on to voters who went for Obama in 2008 and show what path the right wing might choose to regain relevance.
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Holly Bailey
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Oct 13, 2009 04:48 PM
For weeks, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has been slyly playing up
the fact that his GOP opponent Chris Christie is—how can we put it
delicately?—a very big man. Unflattering photos of Christie’s distinct
double chin and wide frame have been a staple of Corzine’s ads for
weeks as he seeks reelection this year. But that’s nothing compared
with a recent Corzine TV ad that featured slow-motion video of Christie exiting an SUV, his girth, as The New York Times so visibly put it,
moving “slowly, in several different directions at once.” “Christie
threw his weight around” to get out of traffic infractions, the ad
says. Hint, hint.
For his part, Corzine innocently swears he’s
not playing the fat card, but it just so happens that as Christie’s
weight has gotten more notice, the gov has suddenly become a poster boy
for good health. Corzine has been jogging every weekend—almost always
in view of cameras—and his allies can’t stop talking about how much
weight he’s lost since he’s been governor. The only way Corzine could
be more obvious is if he were to walk behind Christie and say, “Boom
Baba Boom Baba,” at his opponent’s every step just like those old guys
did to the fat kid in Stand by Me. Last week, the Press of Atlantic City asked
Corzine point-blank if he thinks Christie is fat. “Am I bald?” he
replied, touching his bare head. Of course, Corzine isn’t the only one
poking fun. Over the weekend, Christie gave an interview
to the Associated Press, insisting that he’s healthy and that his
weight shouldn’t be an issue in the campaign. AP’s headline: “Christie
Makes Light of Weight Issue.” Clever.
The whole dust-up is so
ridiculous, it’s almost funny. But here’s the weird thing: with
Election Day just three weeks away, Christie’s weight actually is
starting to gain traction as a real issue in the race.
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Katie Connolly
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Sep 2, 2009 12:19 PM
Yesterday, Politico's Josh Kraushaar compiled a list of the casualties of what's been a particularly brutal August recess. Kraushaar is right—bodies are piling up on both sides of the aisle as the health-care debate becomes increasingly volatile. With even the White House looking seriously bruised, it's hard to think of any politician who has fared well over the last month. But there are a few winners amid the casualties. Here is our take on who they are:
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