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Ben Adler
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Nov 13, 2009 01:04 PM
Katie thinks that while President Obama's job summit is sensible on policy grounds it will be a political liability, reinforcing his image as a dithering talker in the face of crisis.
Says Katie, "Is it a good idea? Yes. Having key stakeholders put their heads together, or at least communicate about the problem, will undoubtedly produce some interesting ideas." So, case closed, right? Wrong! "The 'optics' of the summit ...might just work against him," Katie warns. "Obama is undeniably a deliberative president. He shares none of his predecessor's brash decisiveness ... I'm not sure the public finds that tendency comforting anymore."
Katie's premise is correct. Many Americans are reassured by leaders like our erstwhile "decider" in uncertain times. Until, that is, their rash decisions prove disastrous. Then Americans die, deficits mount, and their approval ratings plummet.
So, while Katie's political advice to Obama might be wise in the short term, it strikes me as short-sighted. Good policy is good politics, especially where the economy is concerned. Careful decision making now will pay political dividends later.
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Katie Connolly
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Nov 12, 2009 04:21 PM
Today, just before jumping on Air Force One for his nine-day trip to Asia, the president announced that he'll convene a
"jobs summit" in December. Amid rising joblessness, the summit will
ostensibly aim to figure out ways to create new jobs and stem the flow
of recession-induced layoffs. The president will invite CEOs,
economists, unions, and small-business leaders to meet with
administration officials at the White House to discuss the issue. "It's
important that we don't make any ill-considered decisions—even with the
best intentions—particularly at a time when our resources are so
limited. But it's just as important that we are open to any
demonstrably good idea to supplement the steps we've already taken to
put America back to work. That's what this forum is about," Obama told
reporters today.
Is
it a good idea? Yes. Having key stakeholders put their heads together,
or at least communicate about the problem, will undoubtedly produce
some interesting ideas and spark important conversations. But is it a
good idea for Obama? That's questionable. The "optics" of the
summit—those elusively defined, fuzzy readings of events that pundits
like to bang on about—might just work against him
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Robert J. Samuelson
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Nov 3, 2009 12:30 PM
Does the Obama administration ever plan to balance the budget? Apparently not. In a speech at New York University, Peter Orszag, head of the Office of Management and Budget, suggested that the administration’s goal was to reduce the deficit to a “fiscally sustainable level,” which he said is “roughly 3 percent” of gross domestic product (GDP). That would be much lower than the deficit of $1.4 trillion for fiscal 2009, which ended in September and totaled $1.4 trillion. But it would still be a lot of money, about $420 billion annually in today’s dollars.
The idea behind keeping the deficit to a “fiscally sustainable level” is to stabilize the outstanding federal debt as a share of GDP. In 2008, the federal debt held by the public was $5.8 trillion, or 41 percent of GDP. When the Congressional Budget Office estimated the prospective Obama budgets in June, it projected that there would be continuous deficits for the next decade and that by 2019 the federal debt would reach $17.1 trillion, about 82 percent of estimated GDP. Other estimates have put the debt-to-GDP ratio even higher. The annual deficits during this decade would average more than 5 percent of GDP, the CBO said. (The federal debt represents all the money borrowed to cover annual deficits.) In his speech, Orszag conceded that present deficit projections are “well above” fiscally sustainable levels. Orszag didn’t say when the administration would start curbing the deficits, except to indicate that the process might start once the economic recovery seemed well established.
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Daniel Gross
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Oct 19, 2009 05:13 PM
Norman Podhoretz, one of the original neoconservatives, just wrote a 352-page book asking Why Are Jews Liberals? To Podhoretz, and to many others, it's a mystery why Jews remain loyal to the Democratic Party and continue to avoid aligning with today's Southern-based GOP. After all, many Jews fall into a demographic—higher income, suburban, professional—that has tended to align with the GOP. And recent Republican administrations have been aggressively pro-Israel (at least when Israel happens to be governed by a right-of-center coalition). Plus, Republicans have pretty much purged the folks who make unfortunate stereotypical comments about Christians' elder brothers in faith. Well, pretty much.
In a letter to The Times and Democrat (Orangeburg) on Sunday, two South Carolina Republican officials defended Sen. Jim DeMint from charges that he had opposed earmarks that would have benefited the Palmetto state.
"There is a saying that the Jews who are wealthy got that way not by watching dollars, but instead by taking care of the pennies and the dollars taking care of themselves," wrote Edwin O. Merwin Jr. and James S. Ulmer Jr., chairman of the Bamberg County and Orangeburg County Republican Parties, respectively. "By not using earmarks to fund projects for South Carolina and instead using actual bills, DeMint is watching our nation's pennies and trying to preserve our country's wealth and our economy's viability to give all an opportunity to succeed."
Oy vey!
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Katie Paul
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Sep 14, 2009 10:36 AM
Lehman Brothers is dead; long live Lehman Brothers. Exactly one year
after the ill-fated financial colossus filed for bankruptcy, spurring
weeks of economic chaos and months of crippling recession, the verdict
is in: little has changed in the culture of Wall Street.
With
that in mind, President Obama is set to mark the anniversary of
Lehman's collapse today with a "major" speech that, he hopes, will
reinvigorate efforts to overhaul the banking system. Congressional
enthusiasim for reform proposals introduced by the White House earlier
this summer has stalled, beaten back by a vicious health care debate
and industry opposition. So, just after noon at New York's Federal
Hall, located in the heart of the financial district, Obama will seek
to shift the focus back to the Street. The timing is just as
significant as the location; in a little over a week, the G20 will meet
in Pittsburgh, presenting a do-or-die opportunity to get the world's
economic movers and shakers on one page. Press secretary Robert Gibbs
has said the president doesn't plan to introduce any brand new
proposals, but, if the White House is serious about pushing through
meaningful reforms, here are a few points Obama might hammer home today:
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Daniel Stone
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Aug 5, 2009 11:02 AM
The popularity of Cash for Clunkers is, by now, undeniable. Only a couple days after it revved into operation last week, car dealers were already in jeopardy of running out of gas. Congressional leaders early Monday huddled over a $2 billion extension of the $1 billion program, which passed easily through the House and is now pending before the Senate. (Remarked a friend of your Gaggler who has worked on the Hill for several years: “I’ve never seen anything up here happen so fast!” No kidding).
A product of the Obama White House, the program was sold on the premise that it would not just provide jumper cables to the economy, but also contribute to the loftier goal of decreasing carbon emissions. The two would be noble accomplishments if actually true. Unfortunately, the effect on both is at best negligible.
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Holly Bailey
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Jul 29, 2009 03:16 PM
Who says news mags are dead? At a town hall in North Carolina this afternoon, President Obama gave a shout-out to this week’s cover of Newsweek:
I don't know whether you've seen the cover of the latest Newsweek magazine on the rack at the grocery store, but the cover says "The Recession Is Over." I bet you found that news a little startling. I know I did. Now, it's true that we've stopped the freefall. The market is up and the financial system is no longer on the verge of collapse. We're losing jobs at nearly half the rate we were when I took office six months ago. So, we may be seeing the beginning of the end of the recession. But that's little comfort if you're one of the folks who have lost their job, and haven't found another….
OMG, Obama still reads Newsweek?! Yippee! Eat it, Time! Oh wait, he was sort of trashing us, wasn’t he? This cannot stand. Here’s the response from Daniel Gross, who wrote the article, and guess what: He thinks Obama didn’t read the piece, considering he went on to articulate the very same argument that the article actually makes. (You've gotta at least read those subheads, Mr. Prez.) Here’s Dan:
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Katie Connolly
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Apr 23, 2009 10:38 AM
The Pew Research Center today released results from its latest
survey. Your Gaggler just attended a roundtable with Pew Director and
pollster extraordinaire Andrew Kohut where he discussed the major
findings. The basic message is all good for Obama. For Republicans, eh,
not so much. You can read the full results here, but these are a few of the highlights (apologies for the very long post, but your Gaggler loves polls):
- Obama's
personal favorability ratings are higher than his job approval: 73% of
Americans have a favorable impression of Obama, while 63% approve of
the job he's doing as President. By contrast, Clinton and Bush had
favorability ratings of 60% and 61% and job approval ratings of 55% and
56% respectively at comparable points in their presidencies.This
personal popularity will probably give Obama some cover in pursuing
difficult or unpopular policies.
- Pew's data
confirms that there is a large partisan gap in Obama's job approval
rating, but Kohut says this doesn't mean the President is a polarising
figure. Obama's approval rating among Republicans is actually a little
higher than Clinton's was in May 1993 - 30% for Obama, 25% for Clinton.
The partisan gap is largely a result of Obama's enormous popularity
amoung Democrats. Republicans are about as critical of Obama as
expected, but Democrats are much more approving of him. The poll gauges
the strength of the public's feelings towards Obama by asking if they
approve or disapprove of his performance very strongly or not so
strongly. A vast majority of Democrats (79%) say that they very
strongly approve of Obama's performance. By the same measure, only 39%
of Democrats very strongly approved of Clinton. Even President Bush,
who was very popular with his base, doesn't match Obama's figure - 71%
of Republicans strongly approved of him at the same stage in his
presidency. (MORE AFTER THE JUMP)
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Holly Bailey
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Apr 14, 2009 01:01 PM
Maybe it was major after all. Although President Obama did not announce any new policy today in his speech at Georgetown, he did go back and explain, in great detail at times, the origins of the financial crisis and how the administration has been trying to respond. And Obama implied that he's going to tackle two major issues that have felled his predecessors at the White House: entitlement reform and re-jiggering the tax code. Although he didn't offer many details, that's big news.
But first, when we say “go back,” Obama did literally explain, in several paragraphs, what caused the current recession, which he says was prompted by a “perfect storm of irresponsibility and poor decision-making stretched from Wall Street to Washington to Main Street.” “Our most urgent task has been to clear away the wreckage, repair the immediate damage to the economy and do everything we can to prevent a larger collapse,” Obama said. “Since all the problems we face are all working off each other to feed a vicious economic downtown, we’ve had no choice but to attack all fronts of our economic crisis at once.”
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Holly Bailey
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Apr 14, 2009 10:50 AM
President Obama isn’t scheduled to speak for another half hour, but the White House has already released excerpts of his speech today. As predicted, there isn’t new policy—just an update on what the White House has been doing and the small signs of progress that Obama has been seeing on the economic front. But several times, the president notes the “pitfalls that may lie ahead.” Here’s one key excerpt:
This is all welcome and encouraging news, but it does not mean that hard times are over. 2009 will continue to be a difficult year for America’s economy. The severity of this recession will cause more job loss, more foreclosures, and more pain before it ends. The market will continue to rise and fall. Credit is still not flowing nearly as easily as it should. The process for restructuring AIG and the auto companies will involve difficult and sometimes unpopular choices. All of this means that there is much more work to be done. And all of this means that you can continue to expect an unrelenting, unyielding, day-by-day effort from this administration to fight for economic recovery on all fronts.
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Holly Bailey
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Apr 14, 2009 10:00 AM
Another day, another economic event. President Obama will speak later this morning at Georgetown University here in Washington, where he’ll deliver what the White House has described as a “major” economic speech. What’s so major about it? It’s unclear. Obama, according to aides, won’t announce any new policy. The speech will largely be an update on where the nation stands as Obama nears his 100-day mark in office. Perhaps the most important thing to look for will be tone. Although Obama is a gifted orator, the president has struggled to find the appropriate balance between talking hopefully about the economy without suggesting the nation’s tough times are over. On Friday, Obama told reporters that he saw “glimmers of hope” in the country’s economic recovery, noting a few promising statistics in housing numbers. While Obama quickly added the economy continues to be under “severe stress,” it was the president’s upbeat tone that got the most attention, prompting White House aides to worry that Obama could be somehow viewed as out of touch considering the dismal numbers on job loss and retail sales that continue to trickle out. What Obama will do today is talk about what he and his aides have been doing the last three months and attempt to show that their policies are actually accomplishing something. Why? White House aides know that Obama needs to maintain his credibility with the public if he wants to push forward on his agenda. So far, there have been no cracks in Obama’s high approval ratings since taking office, and it appears no one is blaming him for the bad economy. In fact, a Gallup poll out yesterday shows that 71 percent of those polled trust Obama to fix the economy—a higher number than anybody else mentioned in the poll. The White House wants to keep it that way. The test for Obama is how long the public's patience will last.
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Katie Connolly
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Mar 30, 2009 11:10 AM
Questions about Obama's socialist tendencies should be put to rest after he announced his plans for Detroit in a serious, no-nonsense statement this morning. The President was firm in his intention to keep the government out of the business of running car companies, saying "Let me be clear: the United States government has no
interest or intention of running GM. What we are interested in is giving GM an
opportunity to finally make those much-needed changes that will let them emerge
from this crisis a stronger and more competitive company."
At the risk of stating the obvious, dealing with Detriot is a thorny issue for a President who has long recieved political and financial support from unions and workers. Short of nationalization, there's almost no way of mollifying the left on this issue. Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, usually a reliable supporter of the President, has already voiced criticism, and we're likely to hear much more from midwestern Democrats and unions in the coming weeks. Which is probably why Obama chose to speak directly to autoworkers:
"I'd like to speak directly to all those men and women who work in
the auto industry or live in the countless communities that depend on it. Many
of you have been going through tough times for longer than you'd care to
remember. And I will not pretend the tough times are over. I cannot promise you
there isn't more pain to come. But what I can promise you is this -
I will fight for you. You are the reason I am here today. I got my start
fighting for working families in the shadows of a shuttered steel plant and I
wake up every single day asking myself what I can do to give you and working
people all across this country a fair shot at the American dream."
He's backing up these difficult words with action, announcing that he'll appoint a new Director of Recovery for Auto Communities and Workers. The Director will be charged with ensuring that "the full resources of our
federal government are leveraged to assist the workers, communities, and
regions that rely on our auto industry."
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Katie Connolly
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Mar 23, 2009 10:39 AM
The New York Times today reports on the Swedish Government's refusal to bailout iconic automaker Saab. Sweden, often hailed by the left as a model social democracy, is renowned for it's generous welfare state. It's interventionist model of dealing with banking crises - essentially nationalizing banks and pumping cash into them before selling - has been much discussed on this side of the Atlantic lately. So the decision (albeit coming from a more conservative government) to hang Saab out to dry is surprising, and will have a deep impact in parts of southwest Sweden where the carmaker dominates the economy.
Saab is owned by GM, and some are questioning whether their influence has been beneficial. The criticisms echo the ones we've heard on Sunday morning talk shows here: That GM has failed to innovate or keep pace in a competitive market. Is poor management in Detroit now having an impact on Sweden? From the NYT:
Saab was always known for its innovative engineering. But analysts
say that in recent years, with General Motors’s emphasis on volume
rather than individuality, it has lost its edge. “Under G.M.’s ownership, they denuded the intellectual content behind the brand,” said Peter Wells, who teaches at Cardiff Business School
in Wales and specializes in the automotive industry. “Its products are
not exciting enough, and Saab doesn’t have a strong brand identity
anymore.
And this:
Swedish
officials...have also been scathing about General Motors, Saab’s
owner, and the last thing they want is to seem to be bailing out a
despised foreign company. Struggling for its own survival, GM
has said it will completely pull out of Saab by the end of 2009, a
course that Ms. Olofsson, the enterprise minister, described as
tantamount to declaring “that they wash their hands of Saab and drop it
into the laps of the Swedish taxpayers.”
Ouch. GM execs might want to postpone their Swedish vacations for the time being.
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Holly Bailey
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Mar 23, 2009 10:12 AM
Here’s an answer to something we’d been wondering the past few days: Although some members of Congress think he should be replaced, Tim Geithner apparently has not offered his resignation. That’s according to President Obama, who sat down with CBS’s 60 Minutes last night. (Here's the interview.) Asked if the White House was looking to replace him, Obama said no. Asked if Geithner had offered to quit, Obama again said no. “And he shouldn’t,” Obama told CBS. “And if he were to come to me, I’d say, ‘Sorry, buddy. You’ve still got the job.’ But, look, he’s got a lot of stuff on his plate. And he is doing a terrific job. And I take responsibility for not, I think, having given him as much help as he needs.”
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Michael Hirsh
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Mar 20, 2009 01:22 PM
Is anybody really in charge of this crisis? Barack Obama's off in California doing the "Tonight Show"-- "These financial industries are holding us hostage," the world's most powerful man complained to Jay Leno Thursday night -- and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is under constant fire for his handling of AIG and just about everything else. So it occasionally feels as if there’s a bit of a power vacuum in Washington. But if there is, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is moving aggressively to fill it. Though his interest-rate toolbox is all but empty, Bernanke has managed to find yet new ways of acting with striking speed and force on his own in recent days. Bernanke is basically printing money on a large scale to fortify the financial sector, committing himself to buy $300 billion of Treasurys and committing an additional $750 billion to mortgage-backed securities. This latest effort has annoyed the Wall Street Journal editorial page. "The Bernanke Fed has now dropped even the pretense of independence and has made itself an agent of the Treasury, which means of politicians, " the Journal opined Friday .
In fact it’s much more likely that Bernanke, a scholar of the Depression who from the beginning has pledged never to let it happen again, is doing most of this on his own even though he generally coordinates his actions with the Treasury.
Bernanke is is also taking charge of the nation’s economic future on other fronts. While it was Geithner who announced the "stress tests" of major banks to be completed in April, the Fed is overseeing the process, bringing under its wing other regulators from the Office of Comptroller of the Currency, the FDIC, and the Office of Thrift Supervision. And, with Geithner’s Treasury badly understaffed, the Fed is dominating the discussion about future regulation. In testimony Thursday to the Senate Banking Committee, newly minted Fed Gov. Dan Tarullo (an Obama appointee, true enough) said the Board is undertaking a major effort "to evaluate regulatory and supervisory changes that could help reduce the incidence and severity of future financial crises." This includes the idea of creating a new "systemic risk regulator." While Tarullo acknowledged that Congress must legislate the new authorities, "effectively identifying and addressing systemic risks would seem to require some involvement of the Federal Reserve." Indeed. With Geithner wounded and Obama off on his latest road show, it looks right now as if Bernanke is minding the store.