Playing a little catch up--sorry I haven't posted more in the last few days. I'm starting to think "Atonement" might not get nominated for best picture, and that maybe it really is this year's "Cold Mountain": a beautiful, epic movie that's just a little too packaged for the Academy. There was no love from the SAGs. Then Joe Wright was snubbed by the Directors Guild of America this week.

So was Tim Burton for "Sweeney Todd." (Another movie that didn't get any love from the SAGs.) This means both movies are extremely vulnerable for best picture, despite what all the Oscar bloggers (I'm guilty too) have been predicting all year. I think the Directors Guild nominations are very close to what we'll see in the top five for best picture: "There Will Be Blood," "No Country For Old Men," "Michael Clayton," "Into the Wild," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."

The wild card: "Juno."