"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is the best movie I've seen (so far) this year. I just came back from the premiere at New York's Ziegfeld theater, and there wasn't a dry eye in the house. It's the true story of Jean-Dominique Bauby, the Elle editor who was left paralyzed after a stroke, and yet he devises a system to communicate by blinking his one good eye. Although it sounds grim, it's also uplifting--in a way that the Academy won't be able to resist, even if it's in French (and not eligible for best foreign film, because France submitted "Persepolis" instead). Actually, I think "Diving Bell" will be this year's "Letters From Iwo Jima," the movie that took everyone by surprise last year, only with more nominations.

Let me count the ways. Best picture, for sure. Best actor, probably, for Mathieu Amalric. Best supporting actor, maybe, for Max von Sydow. Best screenplay, definitely, for Ronald Harwood who adapts an unadaptable book. And best director, hopefully, for Julian Schnabel. Throw in a cinematography nomination, and that's six categories. I'm right about this, I promise.