Kate Dailey
While many women do not think a screening test can be harmful, medical experts say the risks are real. A test can trigger unnecessary further tests, like biopsies, that can create extreme anxiety. And mammograms can find cancers that grow so slowly that they never would be noticed in a woman’s lifetime, resulting in unnecessary treatment. Overall, the report says, the modest benefit of mammograms—reducing the breast cancer death rate by 15 percent—must be weighed against the harms. And those harms loom larger for women in their 40s, who are 60 percent more likely to experience them than women 50 and older but are less likely to have breast cancer, skewing the risk-benefit equation. The task force concluded that one cancer death is prevented for every 1,904 women age 40 to 49 who are screened for 10 years, compared with one death for every 1,339 women age 50 to 74, and one death for every 377 women age 60 to 69.
Confined to the ducts of the breast, [ductal carcinoma in situ, or DCIS] accounts for about 10 percent in all women, and from 15 to 60 percent in women in their 40s.…"It may stay there a woman's whole life and never invade surrounding tissue,'' says Dr. Michael Cohen of Sloan-Kettering, "but we don't know how to tell the one that won't spread from one that will.”
Foreground questions: Does early dfetection of cancer save lives?
http://www.medpie.com/top-health-stories/featured-articles/foreground-screening.html
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It was T.S. Wiley, who wrote Sex, Lies, and Menopause, (Harper Collins) warned women six years ago about the dangers of mammography. They devoted one entire chapter to mammograms and breast cancer. This recent news from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) -- recommendations that women get mammograms every one or two years starting at 40, now recommending biennial screening mammography for women aged 50 to 74 years -- is not surprise a to Wiley.
Quoting from her book, Chapter 5, p. 97, Wiley stated, “Using X-rays to see abnormalities in breast tissue had been around since 1913, but had never really become a diagnostic tool until the mid-1970s. When a pinpoint lesion appears in your breast, there may already be cancer cells multiplying in the shin of your leg, in your bone marrow. The pin-point size lesion that a mammogram picks up is only a symptom of what’s happening elsewhere in your body.”
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, a government panel of doctors and scientists, concluded that such early and frequent screenings often lead to false alarms and unneeded biopsies without substantially improving women's odds of survival.
The book also stated, “The other problem with mammography is obvious: Science only knows of one absolute carcinogen to human tissue on the planet, and that carcinogen is ionizing radiation. If the exposed cells don’t die, the DNA breaks and they mutate. Cancer rarely starts with a mutated gene; but a gene certainly can be mutated by an outside-the-body influence like the ionizing radiation of power lines or mammography. Mammography is ionizing radiation.”
I did some math on your statistics. It seems that if you check all 3 sets of numbers (40-49, 50-74 & 60-69) and do a little math, the number of false positives goes up between 50-60 (or at least in the 14 years in the second set (50-74) that are not in the third set (60-69).