This is the latest post from our man in Rio de Janeiro, Mac Margolis. --BS

With new management in the White House and most of the world still awash in Obamamania, a meeting of leaders in the Western Hemisphere should be a love fest. But as nearly three dozen heads state from the U.S., Latin America and the Caribbean head to Trinidad and Tobago next week for the Fifth Summit of the Americas, the mood couldn't be blacker.

While Latin America is fitter than ever to face economic turmoil, thanks to more than a decade of sound economic brickwork, the international economic meltdown has still gutted growth across Central and South America. Even if the world's richest nations shrug off recession later this year, the major countries in Latin America are in for another half decade of sweat and tears, according to a recent report by the Inter-American Development Bank. 

The IDB projects a mere 1.9 percent annual growth for the seven largest economies in the region through 2013. The same countries grew by 5.8 percent on average in 2003-2007. If the wealthiest nations take longer to recover, IDB president Luis Alberto Moreno warned a gathering at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York today, Latin America could be in for a reprise of a familiar nightmare: another lost decade.

For Latin America, where birth rates are high and millions of young people hit the job market every year, growing by 2 percent is the same as flatlining. Worse, the first casualties will be those who have only recently clawed their way over the poverty line. "Every one percent drop in GDP means another 15 million people will fall back into poverty," Moreno said.

The good news is that several governments in the region have implemented creative social programs, based on direct cash transfers to the poor, such as Bolsa Familia in Brazil, Chile Solidario in Chile, and Mexico's Oportunidades. Just how much cash poor nations can muster for these programs in times of financial Armageddon is an open question.

It's not just charity. Latin America's antipoverty programs not only provide safety nets in countries where institutionalized welfare is threadbare at best. They can also boost economic growth, because the poor immediately spend their cash on food, clothing and basic necessities. That's something the stimulus package architects gathering in the Caribbean may want to keep in mind.