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Posted Wednesday, June 10, 2009 12:27 PM

Memo To Russia: Don't Bag The WTO

Rana Foroohar

 

Despite all its oil wealth, Russia may end up being one of the last countries to emerge from the financial crisis. Not only are its banks in shambles, but just yesterday it put the brakes on a 16 year campaign to join the World Trade Organization. Clearly fed up with having to tick off reform boxes for Western powers, Russia’s Vladimir Putin got petulant and told the WTO that Russia would only join if Belarus and Kazakhstan could tag along, too. Given that these countries haven’t even left the starting bloc on WTO admission talks, it’s likely that Russia’s entry will be much delayed – if in fact it ever happens.

 

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That’s bad news, because Russia desperately needs to diversify its economy away from oil, on which it is totally dependant. It’s debatable whether Russia should ever have been a BRIC – as one economist recently said to me, “You could just as easily have stuck Saudi Arabia in there.” The oil hides all manner of ills – Russia’s debt to GDP ratio and deficit figures don’t look as bad as some other countries at the moment, but the minute that oil prices go down, it all goes out the window. Corruption and inefficiency are endemic, and unemployment is rising (at ten percent officially, but probably much higher, especially in industry heavy towns), and the downturn has sparked a number of protests over recent months – just last week, Putin paid a visit to a small factory town where 400 jobless workers blocked a highway for several hours and put on a big show of browbeating local officials and factory owners for not helping workers.

 

In fact, it’s the Russia central government that’s chiefly at fault. The country needs a wholesale economic overhaul and reform, even in the energy sector, which is amongst the least efficient in the world. The fact that lots of unconventional natural gas is coming online now in the U.S. and Europe should be all the prompting Russia needs to stay the WTO course. When the world no longer needs its energy, it will have even less patience for Russian petulance.

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Member Comments

Posted By: Ruslan63 (June 11, 2009 at 8:41 AM)

"That’s bad news, because Russia desperately needs to diversify its economy away from oil, on which it is totally dependant".

To diversify the economy, Russia does not need to join the WTO. First of all Russia needs a financial instrument that would allow to develop. A simple example: 20-30 years ( 1920 -1940 ) of XX century, the Western economy is in ruins. Who then has evolved? Do not remember?

Developed in the USSR. From 30 th to 40th years, was created 18 million jobs in the high-tech industries based on technologies purchased in the West.

And inside the Soviet Union after the financial reform of 23-25 years ( 1923 – 1925 ) of XX Century has been a financial instrument is not affected by inflation. What, as you know, it allows you to extend credit to the economy.

Our "Democrats” like to lie about the "horrors" of Stalinism, forgetting to say about revolution in the soviet economy of Stalin’s period.

Today Russia needs to free from the depending on the dollar and euro, to establish an effective financial tool for loan economy. Besides, if Russia comes into the WTO, the number of unemployed will rise to 12 million people, and this is the minimum projection

So, if Putin really protect the interests of Russia, he should do anything that Russia does not join organizations