By Takashi Yokota
These should be thrilling days for the Democratic Party of Japan. As of press time, polls showed it cruising toward a crushing victory in Sunday's elections, with projections that it would win up to two thirds of Japan's Parliament and decisively end the 54-year reign of the Liberal Democratic Party. But don't expect the festivities to last long. For one thing, the Democrats' mandate isn't nearly as strong as it seems--most Japanese supported it only to reject the LDP, and surveys show that 64 percent of the country has low expectations for the winners. No wonder: the party is full of political novices, with freshman politicians making up half the DPJ's candidate list--which means they may have a tough time governing effectively.
Even more worrying is the possibility that a "shadow shogun" will take over and fracture the DPJ. Ichiro Ozawa, once the party's top boss, resigned in May after an alleged fundraising scandal, but has stayed busy mentoring young DPJ candidates. With many of those protégés now in office, he could regain enormous political clout and leverage over the prime minister. For some DPJ loyalists that's a frightening scenario, since Ozawa is often referred to as "the destroyer" of political parties: he's founded three of them in the past two decades, and all have disintegrated. Ozawa's disruptive tendencies--should they resurface--could fissure and hamstring the party, souring this week's festive mood.