by Christopher Werth
Poland is quickly emerging as one of the few bright spots in a recession-torn Europe hit hard by the economic crisis. In a recent revision upward, the International Monetary Fund now expects Polish GDP to expand by 1 percent, making it the only European economy projected to see positive growth in 2009. And to top it all off, Warsaw just replaced Moscow on a tally of European cities as the No. 1 destination for companies looking to expand over the next five years.
To what do Poles owe the honor? Positive perceptions have gone a long way to assure investors. When the IMF was doling out emergency loans earlier this year, it instead deemed Poland worthy of a $20.5 billion flexible-credit line. Simply having that kind of rainy-day fund at hand was enough to calm markets without the government needing to withdraw a single zloty (Poland's currency), which incidentally has tumbled as much as 30 percent since last year. That's a boon to Polish exporters, and the country's large domestic market has also helped to balance trade flows and shield it from the whims of global consumers, who are starting to save rather than spend. Poland could also be benefiting from its political turbulence earlier this decade, when Jaroslaw Kaczynski reigned as prime minister (his twin brother, Lech, is still the president)--a contentious few years that may have scared off some of the "hot money" that's now wreaking havoc in neighboring Latvia and Hungary. Ironically, Poland's political woes may now be paying off.