Thanks for all the comments about my recent post, "If Jobs Are Being Cut, Why Aren't Paychecks, Too?," including this one, from Mac101:
"The average American worker has been losing money in their paychecks for quite a while. My parent's generation managed well on one paycheck, but now even in families where both work, people can't make ends meet...wage growth, for most people, has been a myth even before the current recession."
Our reader has a point. While its true that hourly earnings are up year on year, workers have been pocketing a smaller share of the nation's wealth for some time. As my colleague Tony Emerson and I wrote in a cover story for Newsweek International entitled "A Heavier Burden," back in 2004, "wage share," or the percentage of national income that gets paid out to workers, has been flat or decreasing not only in the U.S., but in most developed countries, for the last two decades.
The forces behind this trend -- mainly globalization and technological advancement -- are still with us, and given that wages were shrinking even when corporate profits were going up, there's no reason to think that the situation will get better now, as they are falling. In fact, I have spoken to analysts who expect the outsourcing trend, which had actually fallen off a bit as developing country wages caught up with those of the U.S. and Europe, to surge back, as companies look for any possible way to cut costs.
Clearly, some of our readers are already feeling the pinch, like the "PrairePrankster," who writes:
"I am not sure where the author lives, but I can say that where I work, wages are frozen and the organization's contribution to our 401k accounts have been suspended until further notice. In effect, our wages are being cut since these actions were announced about 4 months ago. With a nasty inflationary spiral awaiting as the stimulus causes our government to print more dollars, our frozen wages will be worth less in the coming years. Maybe that 3.4% wage increase referenced counts all the bonus money paid to the brain dead, greedy MBAs who mismanaged the banks and financial services industry in their zeal to destroy what's left of America's industrial heartland."
Actually, the 3.4 percent increase in national hourly earnings from last year to this year doesn't include any bonus money -- it's just good old fashioned wages, a large chunk of which would have been paid out to workers in the Heartland. Still, I agree that as nearly every central bank in the world goes into over-drive printing money, we are certainly in for a period of much higher inflation. And I have to admit that, as a New York City homeowner, I'm desperately hoping that Wall Street doesn't totally collapse. After all, many years from now, I'm counting on some MBA to buy my house and fund my future retirement if my 401K doesn't cut it.