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  • Can A Bangladeshi Bank Help Fix America's Financial System?

    Rana Foroohar | Apr 20, 2009 01:53 PM

    This past weekend, I went out to St. John's University in Queens, NY, to meet up with a bunch of officials from the Grameen Bank, including Nobel prize winner Muhammad Yunus. For those who don't know, Grameen is a bank which specializes in giving very small loans (average size: $250) to very poor people, typically helping them buy supplies to start small businesses. Yunus started it back in the 1970s in Bangladesh, because he felt the World Bank and other big development organizations weren't getting around to his country fast enough. Local banks wouldn't help the poor, either. Very poor people are almost never considered credit-worthy by commercial banks, because they have no collateral, and often times can't supply basic forms of identification, paperwork, etc. Yunus decided to take a chance that the poor would pay off their credit. Three decades later, he runs an operation that lends $100 million per month, reaching 8 million people in over 100 countries. This year, Grameen opened its New York operation, which it hopes will be the first of 25,000 such branches in the U.S. "I want Grameen lending to be as ubiquitous in this country as fast food," says Grameen America president Vidar Jorgensen.

    The idea of a Bangladeshi bank finding a market in America while Wall Street implodes is fascinating for all sorts of reasons. Aside from the fact that Grameen consistently pulls millions of people out of poverty each year, there are two particularly interesting things about the bank that are worth noting amidst the global financial crisis. One, Grameen has a 98 percent average payback rate globally. Two, the financial crisis has had, according to Yunus, no effect whatsoever on the bank's operations. To be fair, this is in part because most of the people that Grameen services didn't have a stake in real estate or stock markets to begin with, let alone complex derivatives. But, the Grameen lending model does hold lessons for commercial banks. Grameen bankers conduct serious due diligence on loan candidates, visiting their homes, talking to neighbors, etc -- this is old school banking, a little bit like the kind I remember growing up with in rural Indiana, where you were likely to run into your mortgage lender at the basketball game or grocery store.

    After Grameen candidates are accepted, they are paired with other borrowers in groups of five or so, meeting weekly with bankers and with each other to pay back loans in small installments. If one member of the group can't pay, no one else can increase their loans. If anyone has a problem, the individual banker and the other loan recipients are on site to hear and to help. The peer pressure works. There's no splicing and dicing at Grameen -- borrowers and lenders have to look each other in the eye, and the system is completely transparent.

    Jorgensen not only wants to help get credit moving for the poor in America (his goal: to compete with the $80 billion payday lending industry, which charges nosebleed fees that can devastate people--for more on that check out this excellent April article in Harper's). He also wants to bring the Grameen model of lending to the middle class, helping to fill the credit void, and bringing greater transparency to the lending process. "In the last twelve months of the average foreclosure in the U.S.," notes Jorgensen, "there is no contact whatsoever between borrowers and lenders, in part because the loans are so removed from their origins that nobody knows who's holding what." Since opening, Grameen America has loaned out $1.4 million to 600 borrowers below the poverty line. The payback rate so far: 99.95 percent. It's not yet a fix to the financial crisis, but its certainly speaks to the idea that "subprime" may be less about the borrower, than the banker.

     Btw, I'll be writing a longer feature on Grameen America in an upcoming issue of Newsweek, so watch this space.


  • Has Any Good Come From Financial Innovation?

    Barrett Sheridan | Apr 20, 2009 11:34 AM

    Is financial innovation good for society? In a speech last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a qualified yes. Financial innovation really picked up after 1980, and "I don't think anyone wants to go back to the 1970s," he said.

    Ryan Avent, the new blogger-in-chief over at Portfolio's Market Movers, thought that statement rather funny:

    According to Bernanke, no one, "wants to go back to the 1970s," but neither could Bernanke point to a truly helpful piece of financial innovation developed after that decade. His examples of successful financial products? Credit cards, for one, which date from the 1950s. Policies facilitating the flow of credit to lower income borrowers was another, for which he credited the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. And, of course, securitization and the secondary mortgage markets developed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in...the 1970s.

    Have there been any beneficial financial innovations since then? Interest-rate swaps and currency swaps gained traction in the 1980s, and these are generally considered positive advances, because they let companies unload some of their risks to places like hedge funds that are happy to roll the dice.

    Credit default swaps are trickier. They act like insurance on a bond in case a borrower goes bankrupt, and in doing so, they expand access to credit. After all, I'm more likely to buy a home if I know I can get reasonably priced insurance on it, because that lessens the risk of being a homeowner. The logic is similar if I'm a big pension fund considering whether to make a loan to an auto parts manufacturer. If I know I can buy insurance on all or part of the loan, I'm more likely to make it in the first place.

    But now there are signs that credit default swaps are encouraging bankruptcies. Last week General Growth Partners, the nation's second-largest mall operator, declared bankruptcy. Lawyers dealing with the bankruptcy say that "credit default swaps are the problem -- mainly, bondholders who have purchased CDS on this debt have little incentive to negotiate or play ball, since the CDS, if the counterparty honors the agreement, makes them whole."

    This is our old friend moral hazard at work. To extend the analogy I used before, if I know I can get fire insurance at a decent price, I'm more likely to build my home near a hill full of dry brush, and less likely to clear that brush before the dry, hot winds hit in September.

    Here's a key line in the Bernanke speech:

    We should be wary of complexity whose principal effect is to make the product or service more difficult to understand by its intended audience.

    The story of General Growth Partners shows that it's not at all easy to determine who the "intended audience" is. In this case, the swaps may work perfectly fine for the counterparties: the bondholders will (presumably) get paid according to their contracts. But the results are worse than they otherwise would be for GGP and, arguably, for the economy at large. As the Fed sets about regulating the derivatives market, we should probably have a wider definition of "intended audience."


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  • Breakfast Buffet, Monday, April 20

    Barrett Sheridan | Apr 20, 2009 08:28 AM

    America Is "Fill in the Blank": We've already heard that America is Russia, America is Japan, and America is a developing country. Here's another hat to try on: Krugman says America is Irish. (And it has nothing to do with how much Guinness we drink.)

    Really? Another One?: Bank of America is the latest bank to post strong first quarter earnings. When will the backlash against bank profits begin?

    Don't Blame the Engineers: The financial crisis is just a pothole on the road to technological progress! Writing in the Wall Street Journal, L. Gordon Crovitz says, "The innovators who thought up the elevator, the cotton gin and space travel didn't intend to kill or injure people as they perfected the technologies. Likewise, today's financial engineers never imagined their miscalculations could result in a global recession."

    Sprucing Up the Shantytowns: One way Brazil is tackling the downturn: by investing in infrastructure (fresh water, cable car systems) in some of the worst of Rio's favelas.

    No Crisis in Microcredit: Banco Compartamos, the Mexican microcreditor which achieved derision when it went public, is now Mexico's second-best performing stock, and it expects to benefit from the downturn.