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  • CEOs: What's With The Wishful Thinking?

    Rana Foroohar | Apr 28, 2009 03:49 PM

    I just read a survey of high level executives from around the world in the McKinsey Quarterly, nearly one-fourth of whom expect their nations' economics to be in better shape by the end of June -- significantly more than felt that way six weeks ago. The survey took place between April 13th and 17th, the time period of the recent stock market rally, which may account for the misplaced optimism. Some 35 percent of these execs now expect an overall economic upturn by the end of 2009.

    I guess these captains of industry expect wishful thinking to pull us out of the downturn. All of the major economic forecasters are predicting recession into 2010. The OECD expects developed economies to contract by 4.3 percent this year, and 0.1 percent in 2010, with unemployment rising to nearly 10 percent by next year. To the extent that things are less worse in 2010 than they were in 2009, it will be because of massive government stimulus around the world -- in short, because we are going hugely into debt, in large part by bolstering failing industries--not because of some corporate led rebound. Yet, the McKinsey executives polled are less bullish on government intervention than in the past.

    The one thing in the study that did make sense to me was the belief of more than 2/3rds of respondents that China will have more influence over the world relative to the US as a result of the crisis. Which, funny enough, is because in China, government intervention is the status quo.


  • What's in a Name? How to Rebrand a Deadly Disease.

    Mac Margolis | Apr 28, 2009 09:18 AM
    Meatpackers of the world are up in arms. Once again the outbreak of a deadly pathogen has cast a pall over the global kitchen table. What mad cow and Jacobs Creutzfeldt disease did to burgers, and avian flu to chicken dinners, the reemergence of swine flu threatens to do to spare ribs and pork chops. Though there is no proven connection, as yet, between consuming pork and the deadly grippe, the world's most widely consumed source of protein is already flying off the menus. 

    Just ask the Brazilians who rank among the top exporters of pork. Brazil has already seen its pork exports plummet 20 percent this year because of the world economic crisis. Just 24 hours after news of swine flu outbreak went viral the shares of the country's main exporters, like JBS, Mafrig and Minerva, dropped between 2 and 10 percent on the São Paulo stock exchange, Bovespa. Would the double whammy of recession and contagion break this multibillion dollar industry?

    Perhaps not. Outbreaks, like economic breakdowns, tend to have a devastating short term impact on global markets, but then dissipate when the initial panic subsides. By late Tuesday, the stock markets gave back a good part of the share price they'd chopped off Brazil's biggest meat dealers.

    But the Brazilians weren't taking any chances. Fearing further losses brought on by a wave of consumer panic, the Brazilian pork industry trade association, known by the indigestible acronym ABIPECS, has appealed to the authorities of scientific nomenclature. Their solution: rebrand the disease.

    "The denomination the World Health Organization chose for the outbreak of A/H1N1 is hurting pork producers the world over and could cause them serious losses," association director Pedro de Camargo Neto wrote the WHO today. 

    The Brazilians have suggested changin the name from swine flu to Mexican flu, based on the origin of the latest outbreak. Muy amigo, as they say in these latitudes.

    The vegans were thrilled.


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  • Breakfast Buffet, Tuesday, April 28

    Katie Paul | Apr 28, 2009 07:38 AM

    More on that Freaky Swine Flu: This Reuters blogger has a good take on how past flu outbreaks affected the economy, and how this one might stack up. If you just can't get enough, they also have a full coverage page with all the latest updates, photos, and backgrounders your panicked heart could desire.

    Shall We Call Them Stress Quizzes?: Results of the stress tests applied to 19 banks will be published Monday, but it looks like there won't be a hopping release party. The Fed and critics alike are downplaying the tests as a series of inconclusive what-if scenarios, which wouldn't restore confidence as hoped. That has one anonymous bank exec worrying that next week "could feel like September all over again."

    RIP Countrywide: Countrywide Home Loans officially became Bank of America Home Loans, after BofA deemed the fallen giant's brand too toxic to resusitate. Meanwhile, in other BofA news, former Merrill Lynch chief John Thain is finally having his say about the bank, which informed him in January that his services were no longer necessary.

    Petrodollars and Land Grabs: Arid Gulf States have been pouring millions into vast tracts of greener pastures in Africa and Asia, where they can grow their own food. But at least in Cambodia, local farmers sense they are getting shafted; why, they wonder, doesn't Kuwait just buy the stuff from local growers? Good question.

    Somalia, Inshallah, Getting Its Act Together: Sometimes hope can come from the least likely of places. Today, that would be Somalia, where the new president has managed to pass the first budget since 1991 and collected $213 million from a donor conference in Brussels.

    Masks and Handcuffs in Pakistan: And so not in the way you think...