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  • Friday Funnies: "Chuck Norris does not mark to market. The market marks to Chuck."

    Barrett Sheridan | May 1, 2009 02:57 PM

    Felix Salmon points us to the Epicurean Dealmaker's Twitter feed, where ED has been engaged in a bizarre experiment to mash together Chuck Norris and finance. Somehow, the world didn't explode, and the results are hilarious:

    • Little-known Chuck Norris Fact: Chuck Norris does not mark to market. The market marks to Chuck.

    • More: Chuck Norris does not go bankrupt. Chuck Norris ruptures banks.

    • Source of hedge fund survivorship bias?: Funds that pay Chuck Norris 2 and 20 survive; others don’t.

    • Private equity: Chuck Norris does not believe in leverage. Chuck Norris believes in crowbars.

    • Investment banking: No-one defers Chuck Norris’s compensation.

    • Capital structure: No-one subordinates Chuck Norris. All his equity is preferred.  

    • If Chuck Norris devised the bank stress tests, not even the Treasury Department would survive.


  • Stress Tests: What To Expect

    Rana Foroohar | May 1, 2009 01:39 PM

    The Obama administration is expected to release the results of capital stress tests conducted on the major American banks next week, and according to the folks at Capital Economics in London (one of my favorite economic forecasters) the news isn't likely to be good. Already there are rumors that 6 out of the 19 banks, including Bank of America and Citigroup, are likely to have shortfalls.

    Whatever the case, it's clear the banking sector as a whole won't be in great shape. As Capital's analysis shows, even after Treasury injected some $200 billion into ailing banks in the last quarter of 2008, tier 1 capital (that's the good kind) only rose by about $20 billion. That means that all that TARP money really only helped the banks tread water, as they continued hemorrhaging from write downs on those wacky sub-prime related securities. In the coming months, the losses will be more plain vanilla -- in the form of good old fashioned defaults. That won't, of course, make them any less painful.

    Capital predicts that under the most negative economic scenario (I'll spare you all the data points, but the upshot is that it isn't that unlikely) the loan default rate is going to rise from 1.9 percent last year, to 3 percent this year. That's really high. And it would reduce remaining tier 1 bank capital by about 56 percent. Banks are very unlikely to be able to make it up in their earnings (as we've blogged previously, much of that is smoke and mirrors anyhow). Upshot: at least some of those 19 bank CEOs are likely to be headed back to Washington with their hats (and if they have any PR acumen, their Amtrak tickets) in hand. Let's hope the $100 billion in Treasury money still sitting round will be enough to cover them.


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  • Breakfast Buffet, Friday, May 1

    Barrett Sheridan | May 1, 2009 08:38 AM

    Another One Bites the Dust: The federal government put Chrysler into bankruptcy protection yesterday, and the New York Times argues that "if the process is prolonged, the costs and complexity would likely ensure that the company would never emerge from bankruptcy proceedings." Obama blamed "a small group of speculators" who "were hoping that everybody else would make sacrifices and they would have to make none,” he said. (John Gapper defends the hedge funds and "speculators" here.) The new, post-bankruptcy Chrysler will be linked with Fiat and majority-owned by the workers' union and their pension plan. (If that sounds odd, that's because it is.)

    Mon Dieu: What's a French citizen to do when an economic crisis strikes? Protest it! Hundreds of May Day marches are planned, and turnout is expected to be high.

    Dept. of Unintended Consequences: Some 13 countries worldwide have guaranteed about $400 billion in financial company bonds in order to prop up their banking sectors. This has made borrowing extraordinarily costly for the World Bank, which lacks such guarantees but is a AAA-rated borrower. 

    A More Sober "Woodstock for Capitalists": Warren Buffett gathers with his acolytes in Omaha this weekend, and is sure to face tough questions after Berkshire Hathaway reported its worst annual earnings ever. 

    Who's Who of Financial Bloggers: If the financial blogosphere were high school (and sometimes it kind of feels that way), where would you sit?