Rana Foroohar
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May 15, 2009 10:01 AM
I'm still here in Hawaii for one more
day, hearing Asian economic experts talk about the impact of the
financial crisis on the region. To me, one really interesting fallout
of the crisis is how quickly the Chinese are turning their relative
economic power into political power. They are wearing the mantle of
regional clout much more comfortably than the Japanese, who still have
the world's second largest economy, ever did.
Why is this? Certainly, Japanese
ambitions were somewhat constrained by the fallout of WW II, and the
continued suspicions around any Japanese attempts to exert too much
power in the region. But the fact is that the Chinese see their
increased clout in the world as inevitable, a return to their normal
Imperial position, rather than some sort of abberation. They have a
confidence, even at this early point in their development, that the
Japanese still don't have.
You can see this playing out in all
sorts of ways, from the French president Sarkozy changing his tune on
Tibet, to neighbors like Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. bolstering economic and
diplomatic ties (more often than not, Beijing is now the first
diplomatic stop for any new leader in the region). This is true even
for other economically important countries like South Korea. China
recently eclipsed the U.S. as that country's major trading partner.
China is stepping into its new role
with aplomb, playing a key role in the G20, taking part in globally
strategic events like the anti-piracy exercises off Somalia, and
throwing off the old conventional wisdom that's its better for China to
mind its own affairs and let the rest of the world take care of theirs. As Wen Jiabo said at Davos this year, "I firmly believe that running our own affairs well is the biggest contribution to entire mankind."
On balance, I think China's new
position is going to be good news for the global economy, which
desperately needs growth engines aside from the US. But it could lead
to conflict, too. Yesterday, I attended a briefing at Pacific Command,
where I saw a map of what the U.S. military views as its most likely
future conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region. Half of them involved
natural resource squabbles with China.