Last summer’s gas price spike ($4 a gallon and beyond) helped push the U.S. further into recession. So, now that oil prices are starting to move higher, with lots of smart folks predicting another peak in the next year or so, should we worry about higher prices at the pump again?

Fereidun Fesharaki, one of the world’s top energy oracles, says no. (Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma, in a Newsweek International cover story, also thinks oil prices will trend downwards, at least in the long run.) I had a briefing last week with the East-West Center senior fellow, who counts the former Shah of Iran as one of his past clients. He turned me on to a very positive and surprising development that he says will keep gas prices in America low for another ten years: shale gas.

Apparently, we’ve got tons of this stuff in Texas and Florida. It’s a bit tougher to get at than regular natural gas, so experts thought it was going to take a long time to come onto the markets. But lo and behold, last year it started flowing, and can be produced for the relatively low price of $24 a barrel.

What’s the upshot of this? U.S. gas prices, which were already low compared to the rest of the world, can stay low for another decade, even if oil goes to $200. The implications of that are pretty huge. For starters, it helps our energy security in the short term, but it may also mean that it takes us longer to switch to more European-style fuel conserving behavior, which we desperately need to do to wean ourselves off foreign oil over the long haul. It could also stymie the move to renewables—after all, why sink a bunch of money into wind farms and plug-in car grids if gas is (semi) permanently cheap? It will be interesting to see if the Obama administration deals with all of this by raising taxes on oil and gas, which is really the only remaining way to change consumer behavior. In London where I used to live, sky-high petrol taxes mean that gas costs about $9 a gallon. Believe me, at those prices, you think twice about driving a few miles to the mall.

Just in case you missed Jon Meacham chatting up Tim Geithner on Facebook earlier this afternoon, you can watch it in full here. Sadly, they managed to get through the interview with nary a poke or superpoke, but there are plenty of other good--and, you know, legitimate--reasons to tune in.

Singh His Praises: India's Congress Party, headed by economist Manmohan Singh, pulled off a major victory over the weekend. Pundits took it as a mandate for economic reforms, and a surprising win for the ruling party in a country that loves to kick its leaders to the curb after one term. Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute interprets the win through an even broader lens, calling it a vindication of india's "Goldilocks globalization" (not too much foreign investment, and not too little; not too much reliance on exports, and not too little). Everyone agrees it's a good sign for investors in India.

It's All Washington's Fault!: The New York Times Magazine this weekend was all about money, and it's a great read. Highly recommended: this piece by Niall Ferguson, who says that deregulation and financial innovation have gotten a bad rap, and it's really bad regulation (not lack of regulation) that got us into this mess--something to keep in mind in coming months. "The usual response is to introduce a raft of new laws and regulations designed to prevent the crisis from repeating itself...history suggests that many of the new measures will do more harm than good."

Offshoring Moves Up the Value Chain: Those on both sides of the outsourcing debate, get your tongues ready for arguing: the credit crunch is pushing high-skill jobs in the biotech sector eastward, principally to Singapore, where Genentech and other major firms have set up labs and production facilities.

President Lula, Debt Collector: "When China’s President Hu Jintao visited Brasilia four years ago he left Brazilians expecting $7 billion of Chinese investment. So far, they’ve seen $141.6 million or about 2 cents on the dollar." Brazil's President Lula da Silva arrives in Beijing this week to try to gently remind the Chinese of their promise.