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Wealth of Nations

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  • Political Fallout from the Great Recession

    Rana Foroohar | May 20, 2009 12:44 PM
    On yet another endless Asian flight (it seems to take 6 hours to get anywhere out here), I read an interesting piece in the McKinsey Quarterly by Robert Wright, an economics professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business. He did a historical look back to depressions and recessions past, and found--perhaps not too surprisingly--that the bigger the economic fall, the more dramatic the political changes for various nations.

    Examples: the American Revolution was set off in part by a land bust between 1764 and 1768, which put thousands of colonists in debtors’ prison. Who knew? And it was a surprise to me that the financial panic of 1857 and subsequent recession helped to bring on the Civil War, by exacerbating tensions over slavery and states’ rights. This is also the time period that the Republican Party coalesced. Of course, the Great Depression and FDR’s New Deal are responsible for what social safety net there is in this country.

    If the Great Recession of 2008/09 has any lasting political effect, it’s likely to be along those lines. A few months ago, Newsweek ran a cover entitled “We’re All Socialists Now,” and I still think this sums up what’s likely to be the most lasting political shift of this downturn. It’s easy to have an ownership society when what you own has value. When it doesn’t, like Europeans, we’ll be looking to government for more help.

  • Prepare to Hate Your Credit Card Company Even More

    Barrett Sheridan | May 20, 2009 10:14 AM

    Is this an industry scare tactic to prevent unwanted regulation, or a real threat?

    Now Congress is moving to limit the penalties on riskier [credit card] borrowers, who have become a prime source of billions of dollars in fee revenue for the industry. And to make up for lost income, the card companies are going after those people with sterling credit.

    Banks are expected to look at reviving annual fees, curtailing cash-back and other rewards programs and charging interest immediately on a purchase instead of allowing a grace period of weeks, according to bank officials and trade groups.

    “It will be a different business,” said Edward L. Yingling, the chief executive of the American Bankers Association, which has been lobbying Congress for more lenient legislation on behalf of the nation’s biggest banks. “Those that manage their credit well will in some degree subsidize those that have credit problems.”

    That's from the New York Times this week. My first reaction was horror. I am lucky enough and thrifty enough to be able to pay off my credit card bills each month, so the idea of subsidizing the more spendthrift within our society struck me as unjust. My second reaction was that this is a head-fake. Note that the first quote in the story, the one above, comes from the head of the ABA, an industry lobbyist. Perhaps this is just good lobbying, an attempt to frighten the nation's diligent bill-payers into calling their representatives and telling them to block credit-card reform.

    I'm inclined to believe the latter. Anyone with decent (or even not-so decent) credit knows how competitive the credit-card industry is -- just count up the number of credit card offers in a week's worth of mail circa mid-2007. It'd be hard for the credit card companies to uniformly charge an annual fee. If one company strayed from the herd and offered a no-fee card to high-quality borrowers, customers would flock to it.

    But even if the industry's threat is genuine, maybe it wouldn't be such a bad thing if prime borrowers pony up a bit more money. Further down in the article:

    People who routinely pay off their credit card balances have been enjoying the equivalent of a free ride, said [industry analyst David Robertson], because many have not had to pay an annual fee even as they collect points for air travel and other perks.

    “Despite all the terrible things that have been said, you’re making out like a bandit,” he said. “That’s a third of credit card customers, 50 million people who have gotten a great deal.”

    He's not entirely right, of course -- credit card companies make money from stores and restaurants every time we swipe our cards, so even prime borrowers that pay bills on time contribute to the bottom line. But if forcing responsible borrowers to pay more seems unfair, asking less fiscally sound households to pay 25 percent interest rates and $40 late fees is equally unfair. The brave new credit card world laid out in the Times article is in some ways indicative of today's zeitgeist, with its focus on decreasing inequality and sharing societal burdens more broadly. Pay attention, Wall Street -- you'll be next.


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  • Breakfast Buffet, Wednesday, May 20

    Katie Paul | May 20, 2009 07:37 AM

    Capitalism Is Dead; Long Live Capitalism!: We're living through an historic moment, alright, but is it a defining one? FT's Martin Wolf doesn't think so. Part of FT's running series on the future of Capitalism, headquartered here.

    The No-Work Jobs of Japan: No money for sheet metal? Build a vegetable garden! Make trinkets! In Japan, that's the way it works, since government subsidies keep companies from laying off workers. I say, where do I sign up? Economists say, this might help explain why Japan's economy just shrunk another 4 percent.

    Off With Commons' Head: The expenses scandal roiling Britain's House of Commons claimed its top prize yesterday with the resignation of Michael Martin, the first speaker of the house to get the boot since 1695. Now comes reckoning time for the rest of the MPs. All the juicy details on the hidden perks of the job can be found here, here, and here.

    Diamonds, Maybe Not a Russian's Best Friend: The NYT reported last week that Russia is sitting on the biggest stockpile of diamonds. But an industry pro from the US gemological institute thinks the giant cache could be a curse as well as a blessing. In fact, he says, it might turn out that Moscow is getting played by one of its little semi-autonomous provinces.