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  • A Dastardly Tax Proposal to Damage U.S. Growth

    Barrett Sheridan | May 4, 2009 03:41 PM

    Obama declared war on corporate tax evaders today, unveiling a plan that will make it harder for companies to hide money offshore indefinitely and, in so doing, raise an extra $103.1 billion over 10 years (according to the Administration's math, at least). (For background, check here.)

    The response from corporate America was predictable. The chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce summed up the sentiment: By raising taxes on Big Business, “you limit the ability of U.S. companies to compete, you impede growth in the U.S. economy, and you cause the loss of jobs — both at the companies directly impacted and companies in their supply chains.”

    No one likes higher taxes, and corporate America holds no monopoly in arguing that higher taxes hurt the country's growth prospects. But corporate America has been a particularly large beneficiary of such arguments: the Administration calculates that U.S. multinationals paid just $16 billion in taxes on $700 billion in foreign earnings in 2004, an effective tax rate of just 2.3 percent.

    What corporate spokespersons are all too happy to forget in arguing against higher taxes is the extreme tax arbitrage utilized by their companies. A GAO report to Congress earlier this year found that of America's 100 largest corporations, 83 had units in tax havens like Switzerland and the Cayman Islands. This number includes such paragons of corporate excellence as AIG, which had 88 subsidiaries in tax havens, including two in Bahrain and five in the Bahamas. If anyone thinks this is because AIG has a healthy business in underwriting Bahamanian life insurance, I'll make you a great offer on a timeshare in Detroit.

    The argument against taxing corporations more is that it will damage their international competitiveness, and we'll lose jobs and business to overseas firms. Color me skeptical. Of the $103.1 billion raised by cutting down on tax arbitrage, $74.5 billion will go to making a permanent tax credit for companies that invest in R&D in the U.S. That hardly sounds like a plan that will damage U.S. growth prospects.   


  • Will Europe Ever Catch Up?

    Rana Foroohar | May 4, 2009 02:21 PM

    Will Europe play economic second fiddle to the U.S. forever? It looks that way from a new survey that I received this morning from the Association of European Chambers of Commerce and Industry. The group, which is worried that the recession is pushing Europe farther behind not only the U.S, but also the major emerging market nations, released its annual "time-distance study" looking at how various regions rank in terms of GDP, productivity, R & D investment, internet users per capita, and a host of other economic development measures.

    Europe, as it turns out, lags behind the US in all key indicators by an average of 24 years. That means that the U.S reached current EU levels of performance way back in the 1980s. Not good. At today's pace of growth, it would be 2047 before the EU catches up with the U.S.

    Maybe that's why the euro is an also-ran, too. It's amazing that almost as soon as the dollar-driven financial crisis began, there was a flight to -- you guessed it -- dollars. Not euros. And while everyone from China to the IMF is calling for a revamp of the dollar-denominated global reserve system (probably into something involving a basket of different currencies), nobody is putting their reserve money anywhere else but in dollars at the moment. It's simply clear that there is no single-currency alternative to the dollar. And given Europe's dismal demographics and growth projections, its likely that there never will be.


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  • Jack Kemp: The dangers of amateurism

    Michael Hirsh | May 4, 2009 09:59 AM

    One does not want to be disrespectful of the dead, and Jack Kemp was an admirable man in many ways. If the Republican Party had only followed his advice about reaching out to the inner cities and underclass—and ignored his happy talk about supply-side economics—the GOP might not be in nearly the fix it is today. Unfortunately the opposite happened. Kemp, a consummate professional as a football player, was a classic case of an amateur econo-cultist whose understanding never reached quite deep enough. In mid-life, when he decided to switch from sports to politics, Kemp became enamored of simplistic free-market ideas, in particular a toxic combination of Arthur Laffer and Ayn Rand. He then sold another gifted amateur, Ronald Reagan, on the idea that drastic tax cuts would so stimulate the economy that the ensuing growth would more than make up for the loss in revenues. In pushing this idea, Kemp proved to be as effective a quarterback in Washington politics as he had been one on the gridiron, and the results are now economic history—much of it bad, though the tax cuts did help give the Reagan economy a jolt. Kemp was such an economic purist—i.e., amateur—that he argued with Reagan himself a number of times when the president decided that perhaps he’d cut taxes enough.

     

    But the damage was done, and thanks in part to Jack Kemp the supply-side fantasy endured, producing the vast Reagan deficits. Those deficits later inspired Bill Clinton to focus his entire economic program on lowering interest rates early in his first term. Clinton’s success at that, in turn, and his somewhat mistaken belief that the ‘90s boom was the direct result of placating the bond market (though it had at least as much to do with the tech bubble and productivity gains) led directly to the Age of Rubin, which is to say the massive deregulation of Wall Street. Kemp’s influence also contributed mightily to the Bush administration’s total fecklessness about deficits (in Dick Cheney’s infamous formulation, “Reagan showed that deficits don’t matter”). All of which brings us up to the present economic disaster, which now includes what is the largest projected budget deficit since World War II. It’s not fair to blame Jack Kemp, who died over the weekend, for all this—and I don’t—but it is fair to say that this is the Kemp legacy that will likely remain with us the longest. It’s the missing piece you didn’t see in the obits.  

  • Breakfast Buffet, Monday, May 4

    Barrett Sheridan | May 4, 2009 07:45 AM

    The Oracle Speaks: The annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting featured lots of words of wisdom from the Sage of Omaha. Buffett said financiers' greed and stupidity contributed to the crisis and he criticized the bank stress tests. Newspapers face "unending losses," he said, while his partner, Charlie Munger, praised Google's "moat." Both spent a lot of time defending their company's dismal year.

    A European Supergroup That's Not ABBA: According to the Financial Times, Fiat is planning to combine its own automotive division with Chrysler and GM to form a new publicly traded European company. If the plan, which is expected to be announced today, is successful, it will "create a company with about €80bn ($106bn) of revenues and sales of 6m-7m vehicles a year – second to Toyota, more than Renault/Nissan or Ford Motor, or GM itself, and roughly as many as Volkswagen."

    Should Starbucks Become a Bank?: John Gapper thinks the idea makes sense.

    Up, Up and Away for Emerging-Market Stocks?: Acclaimed international investor Mark Mobius says we're at a low and that, while gloomy news may hold down prices for a few months longer, he expects a rally by year's end. Related: Asian stocks today hit their highest level since mid-October.

    Patents as the New Credit Default Swaps: Andy Grove, the former CEO of chip giant Intel, says today's patent system suffers from a lot of the same problems as the financial system of 2008.