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Wealth of Nations

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  • Goods and People Are Moving, But Money Isn't

    Rana Foroohar | May 7, 2009 03:05 PM

    At core, globalization is about three things - the free movement of goods, people, and capital. So far, the financial crisis hasn't affected the first two nearly so much as you might have thought. Trade has collapsed, yes, but that's about demand -- by and large, there haven't been any major protectionist measures put in place, as there were during the Great Depression. So, once demand picks up, trade should be free to follow. What about people? They are still moving -- as I've blogged previously, World Bank figures show that net migration around the world is still up, despite anecdotes about immigrants returning home.

    That leaves capital -- and that's where the news gets grim. Despite the market's positive reaction to financial stress tests, banks haven't loosened the taps on loans, especially cross-border loans. In fact, just the opposite -- recent figures show that in the last 9 months of 2008, cross-border bank lending fell by $4.8 billion, about 14 percent. That's the steepest fall ever recorded. The ramifications could be tremendous. Already, we've seen how the Russian and Eastern European economies have gone into crisis as foreign investors on whom they depend have pulled out. All this could have major political ramifications, because it will increase the economic divide between these countries and Western Europe.

    There are lots of smart economists and analysts that see the demise of cross border lending as the beginning of a real retrenchment in globalization. Certainly, banks' reluctance (and in some cases, regulatory inability) to take on greater risk will mean that they may be inclined to lend closer to home, whenever they do start lending. Banks supported by the state will want to lend within that state. But finance was the industry that catalyzed globalization. And getting the global economy back on track will require cross border lending. Let's hope we can figure out some way to get it rolling soon.


  • No-Stress Tests

    Michael Hirsh | May 7, 2009 11:25 AM

     

    The resurrection of Wall Street is at hand. That isn’t quite the intended message of the results of today’s stress tests, but it’s pretty likely to be the bottom line. Led by Citigroup and Bank of America, the 19 big banks that got us into much of this trouble will, by government-orchestrated means, receive the tens of billions of dollars in additional capital they need. But that’s mainly for another rainy day (as opposed to another perfect storm). “All the banks are solvent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said today, declaring he was “very pleased with the results.”

     

    All of which means that whatever opportunity once might have existed for fundamental change in the financial system – with its giant institutions privately trading derivatives with each other globally --is probably slipping away. Oh, the reigning authorities won’t quite say that. There is going to be all sorts of new regulatory oversight, new capital requirements, reduced leverage rules, and such. But basically you’re going to have a lot of the same banks (minus Bear Stearns, Lehman and some 1,500 hedge funds that are no more) trading the same kind of stuff.

     

    It’s not that Barack Obama isn’t aware of what’s at stake. That’s very likely why on April 27, the president gathered in some of his chief outside economic critics —including two of the most vociferous, Nobelists Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman—for a secretive dinner in the old family dining room of the White House. Also in attendance: Paul Volcker, who has one foot in and one foot out of the administration as the head of Obama’s largely cosmetic economic recovery board; Princeton economist and former Fed vice chairman Alan Blinder; Columbia’s Jeff Sachs; and Harvard’s Ken Rogoff. Representing the home team, as it were: Obama’s chief economic adviser Larry Summers, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. Why did Obama hold the meeting? “I think he wanted to hear the [opposing] arguments right in front of him,” says Blinder. “All I can say is if the president of the United States devotes that much personal time, and it was about two-hour dinner, he must want to hear what people outside the administration are saying and hear what his own people say in rebuttal to that. Why would you do that if you aren’t at least turning over your mind what to do next?”

     

    But after Krugman and Stiglitz made their now-familiar case for nationalizing the banks and forcing other dramatic changes, Obama gave no indication he was changing his policies, Blinder added.

    On Capitol Hill, meanwhile, there is a movement afoot to create a “financial markets commission” that will look into the causes of the financial crisis. The hope among its sponsors is that it will carry the weight of the famous Pecora Commission, which led to Glass-Steagall and other reforms in the early ‘30s. But in today’s environment, it’s just as likely to get bogged down in partisan bickering. And while it’s doing that, Wall Street will be off and running again.

    “Too big to fail” could soon become “too powerful to change.”


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  • Breakfast Buffet, Thursday, May 7

    Katie Paul | May 7, 2009 08:08 AM

    Drumroll, Please: The long-awaited stress test results are out this afternoon, though we already have a pretty good idea of what they'll be. In the runup, Tim Geithner is hitting the streets for a publicity tour, stops of which you can see here and here. Also, you can play with a nifty stress test interactive here.

    SEC Takedown: So you thought we might see some regulatory reform come out of this financial maelstrom? Don't hold your breath, says the WSJ's David Weidner, though that's not for lack of need. He describes the commission as a "rancid" tool of the industry.

    Forget Paris: The Obama team is proposing $17 billion in cuts to its awe-inspiring $3.55 trillion budget. It's a drop in the bucket relative to overall spending--but hey, so were earmarks, and that didn't stop certain members of Congress from working themselves into a tizzy about them. A favorite example of what's getting the boot: an attache for the Department of Education in Paris, who currently costs the agency $632,000 a year.

    Now You See It, Now You Don't: Hey, remember those $15 billion the US government gave to GM? $10.2 billion of it, now history. GM posted a $6 billion loss in the first quarter, bringing its total losses since 2004 to a staggering $88 billion. They'll file for bankruptcy by June if they can't work out deals with bondholders and the UAW.